2041-04: A Talons AAA Player Just Had the Greatest Season in RHML History. But the Talons Aren't Sure Which One.

[jiminyhopkins]

Phoenix, AZ--

The Talons are making an appeal to all of the roto-geeks, stat-heads, and SABR-freaks in the BBA.

The franchise just had not one, but two of its Ashland Slowriders players turn in the greatest season in Brewster AAA history. The only problem is, the Talons aren't quite sure which player was better.

Norihisa Yokoyama is a right fielder, drafted in the third round in 2038. A look at the all time Ruper Horn Memorial League leaderboard reveals that the Japanese slugger set five records this season, including OPS (1.235), Slugging Percentage (.822), Runs Scored (144), Total Bases (442), and Home Runs (68). This guy hit .345 with 20 home runs and 45 RBI.... in August alone. But his WAR of 8.9 was only the fifth best of all time.

And who had the highest WAR all time in the RHML? His teammate Juan Mateo, with 10.3.

Mateo, drafted in the first round of 2037, in fact appears in the same all-time leaderboard just that one time. So how is this even a contest? It may come down to an old debate about how stats relate to WAR. The Talons don't know much about that stuff. Like, how can one guy (Yokoyama) set all the records, but have a WAR nearly a win and a half less than his teammate?

Mateo was no slouch, however. His 66 home runs, 141 runs scored, 167 RBI, and .789 slugging were all second best all-time. His OPS of 1.220 was third best, as were his 416 total bases. What made the difference, however, was his defense. Mateo is a highly regarded defensive first baseman who amassed a +11.0 zone rating this season, while Yokoyama is a below average right fielder who turned in a zone of -7.2.

So, stat heads, is that the answer? Was it all just down to defense for the difference in WAR?

Tha Talons would like to know.

[Fat Nige]

I just love defence so Yokoyama would have been a DH at best for me. So my favourite would have definitely been Mateo

[indiansfan]

I remember when 2026, when all the HR records got broken in the RHML. 5 guys hit over 50 and then in 2027 3 more did it. They must be buying their baseballs from that supplier again. My guy Juan Torres set the HR mark with 58, had 168 RBIs (still the record) and had 422 TB which your guy broke. Torres was 31 and followed it with a great season in 2027, but never made it back to the BBA. Your guys future is a bit brighter

[jiminyhopkins]

I remember when 2026, when all the HR records got broken in the RHML. 5 guys hit over 50 and then in 2027 3 more did it. They must be buying their baseballs from that supplier again. My guy Juan Torres set the HR mark with 58, had 168 RBIs (still the record) and had 422 TB which your guy broke. Torres was 31 and followed it with a great season in 2027, but never made it back to the BBA. Your guys future is a bit brighter

I had forgotten that AAA played 162 games back then.

[indiansfan]

That makes your guys accomplishment even better.

[Ted]

I decide to log in today and lo and behold there is a Talons news for me to comment on. AND it's on a subject I can get all know-it-all about. Thanks Marko!

Mateo was just as good of a batter as Yokoyama. His OBP of .431 is significantly better than Yokoyama's at .414. Of the "old time" stats, on base percentage correlates most highly to run production. It's not really all that close either. Its way more important than slugging and makes batting average look pointless to even record. That's why their wRC+ are 202 (Mateo) and 203 (Yokoyama) despite Yokoyama leading all those other categories. Yokoymama is worse at the skill that matters most (although still quite good).


------ Sketchy math, skip to the TL:DR at the end if you like
So you look at how Mateo was basically just as good of a hitter, and add in his vastly superior defense (elite versus garbage), and he beat Yokoyama in WAR. Lets look at their WAR difference. 10.3-8.9 = 1.4

Given that they are basically the same in terms of production as batters, because they have similar PA's and nearly identical wRC+, that 1.4 difference is the difference in defense plus positional adjustment. WAR is adjusted by a rate based amount of runs scaled to defensive innings or games, I don't remember which, but it doesn't matter. The reason for this is a 100 wRC+ first baseman is less "better than replacement" than a 100wRC+ shortstop. A while back someone cruched some numbers and figured out just how much. Those numbers probably need adjustment but that's a diatribe for another day.

The full season number for 1B is -12.5 WAR, and the corner OF amount is -7.5. Over the shortened AAA season, that's -10.625 for 1B and - 6.375 for corner OF. 10 runs is roughly 1 WAR. So these number can be divided by 10 to "convert to WAR". So Mateo is -1.0625 and Yokoyama is -0.06375.

Now to actual defense. Yokoyama's -7.2 ZR can also be concertedly roughly to WAR by dividing by 10. So there's -0.72 WAR for Yokoyama. Mateo would be +1.1 WAR from defense. So lets check the difference of those adjustments to their offensive WAR, which we assumed is basically the same.

[+1.1 WAR(Mateo defense) + -1.0625 WAR(Mateo pos adj)] - [-0.72 WAR(Yokoyama defense) + -0.06375 WAR(Yokoymama pos adj)] = 0.82125

So defense alone accounts for over half the difference in their WAR. It may be more. You can't just divide by 10 like I did. Some years, 9 runs is a win. Also, I didn't account for base-running because I have no idea how OOTP does it.
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TL:DR Mateo has more WAR because his superior OBP to Yokoyama makes him just as good of a bat and he's a better defender despite playing at a "lesser" position.

Go Talons News!

[CTBrewCrew]

Another kid from that 2038 draft class...when the time comes is gonna be a $$$$ FA market