2053.5 Twin Cities Enters the Labyrinth

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2053.5 Twin Cities Enters the Labyrinth

Post by ae37jr » Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:11 am

Twin Cities Enters the Labyrinth Image All I'm say'in is there better be a piece of cheese at the end of this run.

When the Twin Cities River Monsters decided to scrap a long rebuild and do a half assed win-now mode prior to last season, it was a known fact that the run would not last long. The team simply does not have the young depth nor the financial structure needed to start a juggernaut. With this knowledge in hand, the team was purposely built with a two year window in mind.

Star slayers like Erik Brooks, Jerry Stone, Peter Fuller, Felix Ramos, and Sertaç Safavî were all on league minimum deals and would be due for arbitration raises after 2053(2054 for Stone).

Meanwhile young cheap arbitration age players like Jose Barron, Jose Martinez, Curt Fields, Eddie Johnson, and Andy Elmer were set to hit free agency in the next couple of seasons.

Finally, impact veterans such as David Simpson(FA) and Pedro Guzman(Trade) were brought in with a strategic opt out after the 2053 season. Felipe Vega was supposed to have the same opt out, but a bidding war broke out and my loyalty toward him won out over practicality.

The strategy was supposed to be cut and dry. Fire sale after 2053. But nothing is ever really that simple. Three new factors have made this decision complicated.

The first is the expansion of the salary cap. The extra $10 million may not sound like much, but it does nullify any impact at all for the league minimum group(Brooks,Stone,Fuller, Ramos, and Safavi) entering the early seasons of arbitration. If they average a $2 mil raise a piece, then it washes out the increase in cap.

The second is that we apparently stumbled across some low greed soon to be free agents. Barron, Martinez and Fields are all willing to sign dirt cheap extensions. Elmer's market seems fair, while Eddie Johnson is a bit more pricey. But with him being a top tier 26 year old durable RP, we feel really confident that a 6 year deal will lessen the AAV and be looked at afterward as a solid contract.

To put the finances in perspective. The team will have roughly $25 million to spend if Guzman/Simpson opt in and close to $50 million to spend if they opt out. This is a lot more money than I projected to have initially.

The third unexpected event is the continual decline of the drafts. This is not a complaint, or a woe is me stance. It is what it is and we need to try to stay ahead of the curve. This is probably the worst time in the history of the BBA to do a fire sale. It appears as if, for at least a few more seasons, free agency is the way to build teams.

What does this all mean? I'm not 100% sure. I guess we are just going to have to keep putting band aides on this mess till a better time arises. Free agency is a tough way to build a team. If you try to build it to your liking, then you have to overpay. If you look for bargains, then you are stuck with a bunch of redundant role players who may or may not even improve your team.

One thing is for sure though. with only 4 players under contract(totalling $36 mil) for next season. Twin Cities has a lot of optionality. That leaves a labyrinth of at least 23 different individual options that need to be made. And with the team on the cusp of having the 2053 season completely derailed. Look for some of these decisions to be made sooner rather than later.
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Re: 2053.5 Twin Cities Enters the Labyrinth

Post by Dington » Thu Dec 08, 2022 1:18 pm

Play the long game. Start a 50 year rebuild.
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Re: 2053.5 Twin Cities Enters the Labyrinth

Post by Trebro » Thu Dec 08, 2022 2:22 pm

That's a good analysis of the situation. Definitely going to be interesting to see how things go next few seasons as this all sorts its way out.
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