2038.04 TWC - River Monsters investment in long time Veterans craps out

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2038.04 TWC - River Monsters investment in long time Veterans craps out

Post by Spiccoli » Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:51 pm

Twin Cities is in the middle of rough streak, losing 10 of 12 games. But that seems to pale in light of the degradement of the veterans recently signed to long term extensions.

Chris Limon's lumping has been well documented for a couple of seasons.... however, he's still been able to contribute, if only in platoon situations.


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But the guy the team had counted on for several seasons has completed forgot how to play baseball... Xue-Qin Man. In retrospect, maybe the team should have seen the drop coming, but Man's production has remained solid until 2038.

2033 .332 BA / .871 OPS / 6.7 WAR
2034 .306 BA / .788 OPS / 3.4 WAR
2035 .313 BA / .711 OPS / 4.6 WAR
2036 .306 BA / .773 OPS / 3.4 WAR
2037 .296 BA / .735 OPS / 2.6 WAR
and now
2038 .204 BA / .488 OPS / -.08 WAR (-1.8 WAR projected)

So yes, there were signs of a trend, but at 28 years old, it seems a little young to have a player completely fall off the wagon. The Front Office was counting on (hoping) that 2037 was a single drop instead of falling off a cliff. Due the Scouting changes last season, the Team was unsure if ratings drop seen in Man was real or just a reflection of the league changes... It turns out it was definitely real... and still falling.

Ratings changes
2034 - 9 CON 9 GAP 3 POW 70 Overall Rating
2038 - 5 CON 7 GAP 1 POW 30 Overall Rating

Man's collapse has had a devastating impact on the lineup. Dennis Giguire, a borderline utility fielder has been pressed into full time service versus lefties and may actually completely take over second base on a full time basis from Man.

Finally, the financial impact to Twin Cities is no joke either. The team signed Man to a 6 year-$73 Million extension in 2036, starting last season. The team is locked with Man until 2041 before there's a Team Option available. The River Monsters will seriously have to look at releasing Man as he's completely unable to play in the starting lineup currently.

Xue-Qin Man isn't just any player for the Twin Cities Organization. He was THE first player taken by Twin Cities in the Rookie Draft(2029 - 4th Overall). He's been SS Mark Wareham's long time Robin for several seasons and leads the organization in Career Hits. He was a Geohegan Round MVP in 2033 for Twin Cities first ever play off run.

Man's situation has left the entire locker room with a dull buzz... affecting event the GM.

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Re: 2038.04 TWC - River Monsters investment in long time Veterans craps out

Post by Spiccoli » Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:57 pm

Yes, I'm seriously bummed out about this...

The pitfalls of a having a young team all come up together. They all got their extensions together.... and most of them have lumped to some degree. Cooper, Limon, Man... even Wareham (a little). Though Wareham is still doing what he does. The only guy who's not lumping after his extension is Ganoa, in fact he's tearing it up... and he makes a fraction of the other guys. *sigh*

If Chris Kelly lumps next season, I may have to take a break for awhile. I would have expected guy's prime years to run through around 30 and then start tailing off. It's completely caught me off guard to have guys start going downhill so fast before they're even 28. Going to have completely rethink how to play the game if that's the case.

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Re: 2038.04 TWC - River Monsters investment in long time Veterans craps out

Post by Ted » Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:18 pm

Spiccoli wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:57 pm
Yes, I'm seriously bummed out about this...

The pitfalls of a having a young team all come up together. They all got their extensions together.... and most of them have lumped to some degree. Cooper, Limon, Man... even Wareham (a little). Though Wareham is still doing what he does. The only guy who's not lumping after his extension is Ganoa, in fact he's tearing it up... and he makes a fraction of the other guys. *sigh*

If Chris Kelly lumps next season, I may have to take a break for awhile. I would have expected guy's prime years to run through around 30 and then start tailing off. It's completely caught me off guard to have guys start going downhill so fast before they're even 28. Going to have completely rethink how to play the game if that's the case.
It sucks. That's all there is to it.
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Re: 2038.04 TWC - River Monsters investment in long time Veterans craps out

Post by RonCo » Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:47 pm

Keeping a core together is hard for several reasons. I'm expecting similar results with McNeill.
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Re: 2038.04 TWC - River Monsters investment in long time Veterans craps out

Post by Ted » Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:37 am

RonCo wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:47 pm
Keeping a core together is hard for several reasons. I'm expecting similar results with McNeill.
You expect McNeil to go back in time and start lumping 3 years younger than he currently is? :P
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Re: 2038.04 TWC - River Monsters investment in long time Veterans craps out

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:01 am

Fair enough, I suppose.

But McNeill showed small signs of decay as far back as age 25-26, even though that stayed semi-stable until he was 29-30 and fell off the cliff at age 30-31. (OOTPOU shows his EYE began wavering in 2033 wen he was 26, AvK started wavering shortly after that. His fall wasn't as early as hard as Man's was, but he's been on the edge for awhile. Defensively we had to move him off second base at age 24 -25.

Among the differences in Man's case is that he was never able to take a walk, and had no power. So really, as soon as contact went, Man went. That's really an issue for the game theory of these kinds of players. Man should bounce back a little, but he's 100% a platoon player now.

McNeill's advantage (even discounting the age difference) is that he has a much broader tool set.
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Re: 2038.04 TWC - River Monsters investment in long time Veterans craps out

Post by recte44 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:12 am

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