Warehouse Wire 2045.03: Constable by the Numbers

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Warehouse Wire 2045.03: Constable by the Numbers

Post by bcslouck » Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:49 am

The Constable looks like a lock for winning the JL Gilstrom at this point, but also has a long shot at winning the Nebraska. Rubén Vázquez is the clear front running while Constable is in a group of a couple SP's trying to make a move toward the award.

First, we'll get into the versatility of the rookie. As most know, his first full season in the BBA saw him come out of the bullpen as a dominant high leverage, late inning reliever. Constable struck out 130 in 65 innings with a 1.66 ERA as a RP. Quite simply, he was one of the top bullpen arms in the game before making his first start against Brooklyn, where he struck out 10 in 7 innings.

He's been on of the top SP's in the JL since making the switch. Throwing 93 innings over 15 starts, he's truck out another 126, down from his days as a RP but clearly in an effort to get deeper into games. Still, his K/9 sits at 12.2 which would be in the Top 5 (his current 14.6 leads the league, combining his RP and SP innings). His other numbers are largely unchanged. His BB/9 went from 3.32 to 3.58 (approximately another walk for every 34.33 innings pitched) and his HR/9 went from 0.69 to 0.68. His ERA is up to 3.19 as a SP, which would bumped him down to tied for 7th in the JL overall.

When you add up all his numbers together, you're looking at the most versatile and one of the more dominant pitchers in the JL. He currently leads the JL in ERA (2.56), K/9 (14.6), H/9 (5.5), OPP AVG (0.179), OPP SLG (0.275), and OPS OPS (0.535). He's second in strikeouts (256), WHIP (1.00), OPP OBP (0.260), and WAR (6.7). In all of those categories, Rubén Vázquez only leads Constable in WAR at 7.6. The San Antonio ace also leads the JL in K/BB by a wide margin at 8.3, but Constable leads the JL in K%-BB% at 31.5% (Vázquez is at 29.98%). Of course, Vázquez leads him in the volume categories that only SP's would lead. Given Constable spending half the time as RP, this makes sense.

So the case for Constable? Well, not long ago, the BBA voted on two RP's winning the Nebraska, one being one of the players in the mix this year again in the JL, Rockville relief ace Danny Leach. That year set a new precedent for the award. It also showed the WAR isn't the end all be all of a Nebraska winner, as Leach finished 3rd in the JL. An argument could be made that Constable has been the best pitcher in the JL. I mean, he dominated as a reliever and made the All-Star game the first half of the season, and made the seamless switch to the rotation only to be on of the top guys there as well. The versatility should be considered along with his fantastic season.

I'd wager Constable doesn't win this years. But he will sooner rather than later.
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Re: Warehouse Wire 2045.03: Constable by the Numbers

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:04 am

Not that game score is the end all be all of pitching performances, but here are some of the JL leaders in GS and AGS (AGS giving you a bonus for performances in a hitters park and a penalty for pitching in a pitchers park).

GS:
1. Cristian Garcia: 63.25 (28 starts)
2. Amos Swallows: 61.10 (29 starts)
3. Carlos Flores: 59.48 (29 starts)
4. Ruben Vazquez: 59.14 (28 starts)
5. Jim Armstrong 57.81 (27 starts)

AGS:
1. Cristian Garcia: 63.15 (28 starts)
2. Carlos Flores: 61.13 (29 starts)
3. Amos Swallows: 60.69 (29 starts)
4. Ruben Vazquez: 59.28 (28 starts)
5. Jefferson Pierce: 58.53 (30 starts)

FWIW Constable is at 60.67 (GS) and 61.48 (AGS) in 15 starts
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League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

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Re: Warehouse Wire 2045.03: Constable by the Numbers

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:09 am

I should qualify that those rankings are for those who have pitched a "full season" (which i define as 25 starts), although nobody else is really within range of the top 5 and just short of the 25 starts.
Randy Weigand

Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-

League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

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