Edmonton, January 1, 2048 -- Edmonton rang in the new year with three high profile free agent signings that made headlines in our quiet little town. But off the radar was another addition, grabbed for free in the just-complete MBBA Rule 5 draft.
No one was surprised that GM Mike Dunn scoured the draft pool for a bench player or two. What was a surprise was who he nabbed: 27-year-old middle infielder William Crowley, who has toiled away in obscurity since being drafted the California Crusaders (now the Sacramento Mad Popes) in the eighth round way back in 2039. He refused to sign with that club (can you blame him? har har), opting instead for some college ball. Then in 2042, he was picked up in the 13th round of the 2042 draft by the Vancouver organization.
Crowley finally gets his shot.
So why, oh why, would our GM bother to grab this guy, a 13th rounder five years ago who surely is like 20,000 or so other light-hitting infielders with slick gloves who never can quite make it to the bigs? Particularly when Dunn opted to DFA the veteran SS Joey Nethersole and expose him to waivers? Surely Crowley is nothing but a poor man’s Nethersole!
We called up Dunn and posed that very question. “Don’t look at the ratings, look at the numbers,” was his cryptic response.
So, we did exactly that. Crowley’s ratings according to team scouts are the very definition of mediocrity:
Then we looked at his stats on Vancouver’s AAA team, the Victoria Canucks, over the past three seasons:
And therein lies our answer: when Crowley hit his 27th birthday last year, he made a marked jump in offense, ending the season a respectable .370 OBP and 110 OPS+ with regular playing time in 110 games. Moreover, look at the speed: 50 stolen bases, a jump of 20 over the previous season. All of that added up to a 4.0 WAR, which you rarely see exposed in a Rule 5 draft or on the waiver wire.
“Look, if suddenly a 22-year-old appeared out of college with a solid year of hitting nearly .300 and 50 stolen bases, scouts would be drooling,” Dunn said. “Sometimes the ratings don’t catch up to the talent. Crowley may be a case in point.”
Whether this will translate at the major-league level is certainly a question. First, the Brewster is full of players who never can quite make the jump from AAA to the bigs. Second, Crowley will now be a bench player, backing up Jorge Moran at second and Roberto Puente at short, so his opportunities at the plate will be few.
Still, all it would take is an injury for Crowley to find himself in a starting role for a few weeks or so. Then we would all see whether Dunn’s hunch—that Crowley’s statistical jump in 2047 was not an anomaly—is for real. If it is, this could be a steal. If not, back to the Canucks he goes!