46.15 Checking the Locks: Rotation

[crobillard]

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the ninth of eleven parts. I will be taking a look into the starting rotation in this post.

Sure fire locks:
Jose Martinez
Amos Swallows
Lando Klomp
Luis Espinosa

Near lock:
Itze Woertgen
Antonio Gonzales
Fedaku Bbosa

Trying to get in the door:
Martin Villa
Cristian Chavez
Gabriel Soto
Tokimasa Ihara

This core of this position is mostly intact this season, but with increased depth. After the acquisition of Espinosa from Brooklyn recently, it puts first year starter last season Gonzales on shaky ground. The lefty played okay last season 11-5 with a 4.74 ERA in 146.1 innings with a 1.34 WHIP. From a bottom of the rotation starter this isn't a terrible first year, but without obvious significant growth this spring you have to wonder what the Jackrabbits will do since they have another lefty in Luis Espinosa. His production last season probably cannot be confidently relied upon, but he went 17-9 last season with a 3.33 ERA in 227 innings with a 1.30 WHIP for 3.0 WAR. For a better look, he has a 4.51 FIP last season compared to Gonzales' 4.68 FIP, so they are probably pretty comparable in the end. I'll talk about some other options closer to the end of this post that are coming from the trying to get in the door section.

Martinez returns after his injury in the playoffs last season and the team is expected to take it slow with him after he had surgery this offseason on his elbow. He was 14-7 last season with a 3.33 ERA, 181 IP and a 1.12 WHIP. He was the team's most solid pitcher throughout the entire season and this offseason he was a victim to a vicious rumor mill that had his name attached to several different possible trades. He's making 12.5 mil this season and next. He's likely a cap casualty since the team is reportedly trying to extend it's many star hitters on offense whose arbitration is running out after this season and next.

In his first full season, Swallows was probably a lot better than anyone expected, leading the Johnson League in wins with 18 with an 18-7 record, 2.88 ERA, 209.1 IP, 209 Ks with a 1.01 WHIP for a 4.6 WAR. His stats suggest he had some help due to his 3.98 FIP, but really solid showing in his second year in the majors. His performance in the playoffs was really good too. He had a 3-1 record in five starts with 30.1 IP only allowing 10 earned runs.

They probably got what they expected out of Klomp in his first season in Edmonton too after he went 12-5 with a 3.83 ERA in 204.1 innings with a slim 1.15 WHIP. He's now had three consecutive seasons with exactly 2.7 WAR which I thought was a cute coincidence. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, but he's a heavily groundball pitcher that is providing a ton of value to the organization right now since he was immediately extended upon acquisition last season with two more years making 3.6 mil and the final two seasons making 4.6 mil.

Woertgen came on halfway through the season and surprised many with his 12-4 record with a 3.92 ERA in 128.2 IP with a 1.20 WHIP. He's also a very durable pitcher like Klomp and Espinosa, so I'm considering a shift in approach to pitching this year. More on that in the final results. Woertgen was pitching well beyond where he should have been since he had a 4.84 FIP. Maybe the defense just wanted to help out the rookie in his campaign.

Coming off of a debilitating torn labrum injury last season is Bbosa. He should be back late into spring training and there's a big question mark over him. Are we going to get a good enough look at him before the season starts? He probably shouldn't start again, but where would he fit in otherwise? He's lumped a little bit after his injury. Is it best to just cut him since the pitching staff is so competitive this season? Bbosa is just such a big question mark that while it would be great if we can find a spot for him, he might be the first one that's cut if there are 28 players that we want to put on the active roster.

From here we get to the players trying to get in the door, there's Villa, Ihara and a couple prospects. Villa and Ihara have seen major league time before with Villa having moderate success out of the bullpen. With that said, he also had a 5.74 ERA last season in 62.2 innings and a FIP of around 5 the last two seasons. You have to imagine the odds are against him this season and he's out of minor league options on top of that. Ihara is a lefty specialist that has kinda fallen apart a little bit since his acquisition and if you look back further he was an 80 potential in his rookie league days. Nowadays he's a 35 overall player and seems to be declining further as each season passes. At age 25, it may be time to cut ties.

All eyes will be on the two prospects in the mix, Gabriel Soto and Cristian Chavez. Chavez is definitely more of a reliever right now, but he's trying to work on the efficacy of a third pitch so he can start. He currently stands at 7/8/7 with 9/8/2 actuals and 9/8/8 with 10/9/5 potentials, so he aat least has another season to go, but he'll see some time against higher tier talent this spring. Still, with a 3.62 ERA in 49.2 innings in AA last season you wonder how the team will approach the remainder of Chavez's progression. He could be really, really good eventually. Soto is in similar position, but a bit further along than Chavez. Soto is the lone remaining lefty with starting power. He is rated 9/6/7 with 7/8/10/7 actuals and 9/6/8 with 7/9/10/8 potentials. Soto is pretty ready for the big time, but he hasn't played in AAA yet, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him start in AAA to get an extended look at him especially with the pitching staff being so competitive this year. It might be difficult to pass him up if he posts fantastic numbers in AAA though.