45.10 Checking the Locks: Bullpen

[crobillard]

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the tenth of eleven parts. I will be taking a look into the bullpen in this post.

Sure fire locks:
Jorge Huerta
Ryosei Akiyama

Near lock:
Diogo Lindt
Alexandre Renard
Albert Love
Shinsaku Sato
Zhi-xin Chien
Ryosei Akahori

Trying to get in the door:
Jorge Limon
Freddy Diaz
Jose Duarte
Manny Baca
Cristian Chavez
Tokimasa Ihara
Victor Ortega

Redesigning our bullpen this season, but it all starts with Huerta as our bullpen ace. His last three seasons have been lights out. He's really thriving now. Last season he was really performing better and due to our huge bullpen, we didn't need him as often and we allowed him to stay fresh more often. Five of the past six seasons he's made 80 appearances each season. We only needed him in 62 games last season. He ended up with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP for a 1.7 WAR. He has some pretty great strikeout numbers too with a 9.2 K/9 rate. He's awesome. We may need him more this season as we transition the bullpen, more to come on that in a moment.

The other important part of every bullpen we've had is a dominant lefty. Akiyama is definitely among our most important, but he's injured until maybe the playoffs, so we wont get him. Ryosei Akahori has been our resident superior lefty for many seasons now in whatever role we put him in, but he's really turned it on in a starter role with an ERA under 3 the last two seasons. We're missing Vicente Ventura, who left for UMEBA, and was really important to our bullpen. Who takes his place? This likely the number one thing we will need to decide when it comes to the bullpen this season because our RHPers are not very good against lefty batters. Sato is outstanding against lefties, but he gets wrecked against RHB, so I prefer someone who can dominate lefty batters and hold their own against lefties. Ortega would be the closest thing to what we're looking for, but he's more of an interesting pitcher because of his weird lefty righty splits than anything else. That would leave Ihara and Antonio Gonzales (more in the rotation part) as our remaining lefty options. They both have struggled in a starting role, so giving them a spot in the rotation probably requires that they can spot start in our Ryosei Akahori role.

The near locks and recent acquisitions are really interesting. Lindt might have what we need to be a nice innings eater out of the pen, but a flyball tendency with very low 5 movement is pretty scary. If I could ensure he only pitched in Edmonton, that would be great, but OOTP doesn't make that possible. No idea if I'll keep him after spring, but I might try him out if no one else arises from the masses. Love and Sato create this really cool ROOGY LOOGY punch that I imagine targets the opponents best hitters in crucial situations. I know it doesn't play out that way, but their success has been noticeable. Sato only pitched in 10 innings of nearly entirely specialist relief and only allowed two earned runs and struck out 13 batters. Love had a little more freedom and wasn't as strict of a ROOGY. He pitched in 20.1 innings had a WHIP of 1.18 and only allowed four runs.

Renard is a big question mark this year. He's injured until around the start of summer, but he's lumped a bit of stuff since the last time he played. His one mil salary and recent success in Edmonton make him a solid waiver option if someone wanted to try him out in a couple months, but at 34 years old, he will likely just end up getting released unless we need someone in the bullpen when he's ready. Still, over around three seasons in Edmonton he's pitched in 283.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP. Really solid. The UCL injury is pretty scary though, so if there's another option I'm sure we'll take it over Renard.

Most of the guys trying to get in the door are just getting a look against better hitters. Chavez and Baca are the best in the bunch with Chavez looking like a future Huerta potentially, but with better starting potential if he can develop. Chavez will be 21 soon and he's rated 9/8/6 actuals with 8/8/2 pitches, 11/8/8 potentials with 10/9/5 pitches. He's going to be awesome. He could pitch right now, but he's only really played in single A thus far, he's just seen a ton of progress over the last year. He'll start in AA this season, but I wouldn't count out seeing him in a majors if he's just crushing competition. I'd really like to see him continue progressing though. As long as our bullpen continues to perform well, it'll be easy to hold him back.

Baca will see time in the majors someday, but it probably wont be this year. He still has a lot of progress left. He's 7/6/5 actuals with 9/4 pitches and 10/6/7 potentials with 9/9 pitches. He's a lefty, but he doesn't have any really strong splits, so he's an exciting pitcher to have. He's turning 23 this year, so I'm really hoping he picks it up quickly.

Limon and Duarte look good, but they're probably outside options right now. Duarte is a nice depth option right now as he is 9/5/7 with 9/7/9 pitches and he's only missing a point in stuff and two points in his 7 pitch. He's durable too, so he's a pretty attractive pitcher, especially if he bumps in a couple areas. At nearly 22, he has plenty of time. Limon is a similar lefty at 9/5/6 with 10/2/7. That 7 pitch is an interesting knucklecurve. That and his awesome 10 fastball has shut down opponents in AAA. He just turned 25 so if he's going to make the majors now might be the time to make that decision. He had a 1.45 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in 62 innings in AAA last season.