45.9 Checking the Locks: Rotation

[crobillard]

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the ninth of eleven parts. I will be taking a look into the starting rotation in this post.

Sure fire locks:
Chandler Hall
Jose Martinez
Amos Swallows
Fedaku Bbosa
Lando Klomp

Near lock:
Itze Woertgen
Freddy Delgado
Antonio Gonzales
Ryosei Akahori

Trying to get in the door:
Martin Villa
Sixto Rivera
Lance Carter

Every few seasons there is a huge change to this group that ends up radically changing the next few years and really identifying the team. There was a time Bobby Lynch, Jubal Troop and Jesus Ramos were in the rotation at the same time. That group then transitioned into something without Ramos when we added Julio Alicea and Chandler Hall. After that, Bobby Lynch was traded and Mauro Flores saw a resurgence in Edmonton. Rodrigo Gallegos, Ryosei Akahori and Fedaku Bbosa eventually saw expanded roles with the team and we sprinkled in some Dermott Halford. Now, only Hall and Bbosa are left from all of those names over the last nine year and we enter this year with a rotation of Swallows, Hall, Martinez, Klomp and Bbosa and I believe it will be the best rotation we've had yet. Top to bottom this rotation is lights out. Now, you're thinking WhAt AbOuT InJuRiEs, RoBiLLaRd!??!?! and it's a good question. Last season we got rocked hard by injuries and I wanted to make sure it didn't happen again, but I also wanted some trade bait to dangle, so I loaded up last season, getting ready.

Delgado was acquired last season in the trade that brought in Po-sin Shi, Halford went to UMEBA, Troop was traded IN MY DIVISION to Phoenix and Klomp fell into my lap which I am absolutely stoked about. Gonzales was added in the Troop deal. Swallows was acquired in the first trade with Charlotte that shook up the league and my infield at the time. Woertgen was acquired from the stupid trade that dumped Menzies. So, was it all planned? Hell no. I don't know what I am doing. That Menzies trade is the biggest evidence of that.

My point in saying all of this though is that I am ready for this next transition. I have the pieces to withstand any injuries this year and then some. My rotation is pretty old too. Delgado was used quite a bit at the tail end of last season and I expect to use him again this season. He was awesome by the way. I'll get into that in a second. Klomp and Martinez certainly aren't young. Klomp gets me a tad younger than I was with Troop, but it's not like we're reversing the tide. We need to get younger and hopefully we have some changes coming the next couple seasons that will help.

So, let's start from the top. The return of Chandler Hall late last season and for the playoffs. Hall could only warm up in two starts at the end of last season and had a few innings in relief at the end to ensure that I won enough games to make the playoffs. He ended up with 15.2 innings while only allowing five earned runs and a 0.96 WHIP, but before you say small sample size, let me give you a smaller sample size, Edmonton won through the playoffs until we faced eventual Landis winner San Antonio in the Cartwright. Hall pitched in 11.2 innings allowing 15 hits and four earned runs. It's a decent criticism whether we needed to play Hall at the end of the season. We probably could have saved him and got another start out of him. He's fragile of course so it's important not to use him aggressively. That's just not Edmonton's style with pitching though. I actually flirted with using Hall in a relief role this season, but it's not going to happen. I'm going to tap this guy for everything he can give this team for as long as he can do it and then I'll move on. It's worth noting that he actually lumped in the beginning of last season from a 7 movement to a 6. We might start seeing that this season, but I feel pretty comfortable rolling with him as a starter with his 13/6/10 ratings and 10/8/10/9/3 pitches. I got so many terrible offers for this guy that entire time he was injured. I don't care if he's injured so much. If you can get 100 innings with one of the best pitchers in the league, that's a huge boon to your team for any games you're getting from him and if I ever trade Hall, it will be at full price, no injury discount. Maybe that means I never trade him. That's fine by me.

What allows me to have that flexibility is one of the best rotations in the game and when Hall is not around it's now being led by Martinez. Rated 11/7/8 with 10/9/9 pitches. He's 31 years old and really hadn't seen a ton of success before coming to Edmonton. He's been transformed into something close to an ace with 193.1 innings last season with a 5.6 WAR, 1.04 WHIP, and a 3.67 FIP. He's awesome and I'm stoked to have him as my number two behind Hall.

He's followed by our prize knuckleballer in Swallows. His first 55 innings in the majors weren't great. He was on the mound for 10 starts where he was credited for the loss in seven of them. A 4.43 FIP and 1.15 WHIP shows things weren't as out of control for the knuckleballer as it seemed though. I expect him to settle down more this season and start keeping his balls low. He's rated 13/6/7 after a bump in his stuff this offseason with 7/5/3/7/13 pitches. Of course that 13 being a wild, nearly unhittable knuckleball. I think he could reveal himself to be future ace material with this sophomore season.

Then, you have Lando Klomp which I am so excited to have. I've said this in another post and someone else can call me out here during the season if he ends up being shit, but I think this is the next Jubal Troop/Jose Martinez. Troop had success early in his career but fizzled later only to come alive for Edmonton. Same thing happened for Martinez. Klomp has the ratings, but in his 10 year career in a season where he's had over 100 innings his best ERA was 4.24. His career ERA over his 10 years is a whopping 4.96. I'll go ahead and predict that he will fall at least a run lower than that with Edmonton. He wont soak up as many innings as Troop did, but with a 9 stamina and iron man status I think he could mow through batters for many of his starts and you know I'm going to unleash him right away. I was so confident in him that I signed him right away. He makes 4.5 mil this year, 3.6 mil the next two years and 4.6 mil the two season following that. 36 years old in that last season. I think he's such a freaking steal at this price. I think there's a pretty good chance that he makes Joe's trade value series in 2046 as someone in the top 50 and he might make it very late in his career. I would imagine during this new contract he'll be in that trade value series as one of the oldest if not the oldest in the entire series.

Fedaku Bbosa rounds the rotation out and this guy is such a beast. What I like best about him is that he's very versatile. I can throw him anywhere on the entire pitching staff and he'll do well. I used him as a spot starter last season trading him with Ryosei Akahori when I thought we could use the help from a lefty. as I've learned how to use Bbosa he's been getting better and better. Last year he had a 3.90 ERA in 110.2 innings with a 1.25 WHIP. RHB heavy teams BEWARE. Bbosa has a 11/7/7 ratings as a number 5 pitcher in the rotation with 9/8/9 pitches. His 4 stamina limits his innings, but if you have a strong bullpen as I believe I do, you can roll with these short inning starters without many issues.

I touched on Akahori just a moment ago, so I'll continue here. He's been so clutch for me these past couple of seasons that it's very noticeable when we're missing him due to injury. He's so good against lefties that I almost use him exclusively for lefty heavy teams and he performs. In 2043 he had a 2.92 ERA in 129.2 innings with a 1.03 WHIP and last season he had a 2.64 ERA in 99 innings with a 0.96 WHIP. He's been right around 2.0 WAR in both of those seasons and I expect more good things when he returns from his UCL injury next month. He's turning 31 this year, so his time in Edmonton is probably closer to the end than it is the beginning, but he's one of the most valuable skill players on this team.

Delgado is up next. I've said for awhile that I go with the hot hand on the mound or the hot bat at the plate. I don't care who you are, if your helping the team win games I will play you. At 37 years old, Delgado is going to test that. He's never been all that good for any extended period of time. Then, he comes to Edmonton and he throws in 64.2 innings with a 2.51 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He only gives up six homeruns too. We've seen these short stints of success from Delgado before though. It's an entirely different thing if he can actually keep it up. He lumped his stuff to a 7 which is terrible in this new world of actual ratings, so I'm not expecting much good to come from playing him, but I'm excited to be proven wrong. He'll get a shot at some point this season.

Itze Woertgen and Antonio Gonzales are both ready and desperate for a shot in the majors. If this was most other teams, I bet both of these guys would be starting, but Edmonton looks healthy and solid. It's going to be difficult, but I need to try and find a spot for them on the active roster. They'll get a shot in spring training to prove they're ready. Woertgen has had a sub 4 ERA for the past two season in AAA now. I'm kind of terrified that if he sees addition time in AAA at 24 years old, he's going to start lumping. Gonzales is the new lefty in Edmonton acquired in the Troop deal. If you don't look at his fragile injury status, he kind of looks like Troop. He was atrocious in Phoenix last season with a 6.45 ERA in 68.1 innings with a 1.61 WHIP. I'm confident he'll do better in Edmonton, but he needs to show something in spring training to make the team.

Sixto Rivera, Martin Villa and Lance Carter are kind of long shot options to start or even make the team. Rivera is only 23 years old and immediately puts himself in a nice spot as a deep depth option. He's performed well in AAA, so that'll be a nice boon to the squad there too. Carter is someone that came up in Edmonton when he was much younger. At almost 29 years old, he becomes another deep depth option in AAA. Villa has actually seen recent time in the majors with 71.2 innings over the last two seasons. He's performed alright. He's a replacement level guy who is really better off coming in out of the bullpen than starting games. If he's pitching in seven innings of a game than you're in trouble. He's not a terrible option though. He could keep things close for you when depended upon.