44.10 Checking the Locks: Rotation

[crobillard]

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the ninth of eleven parts. I will be taking a look into the starting rotation in this post.

Sure fire locks:
Jubal Troop
Chandler Hall
Jose Martinez
Rodrigo Gallegos

Near lock:
Ryosei Akahori
Fedaku Bbosa
Dermott Halford

Trying to get in the door:
Martin Villa
Amos Swallows
Itze Woertgen
Hideaki Shibutani

The Chandler Hall injury at the end of last season highlights the decision making this spring as midseason acquisition Jose Martinez isn't enough to make up the difference. However, having a full season of Martinez should absolutely improve this pitching staff and possibly take a little pressure off of the bullpen. The rotation this season probably still starts with Troop though. The club's only consistently solid pitcher over the last six seasons. Troop turned in one of the best performances of his career last season at 32 years old with 207 innings pitched, a 2.96 ERA (3.59 FIP), a 0.98 WHIP and a 3.6 WAR with the only noticeable decline being in his K/9 at 7.0 when we're used to almost 9 from him. If he can continue this blistering pace through his early thirties, Troop who is making 8 mil this year and just over 10.5 mil the next two years will make the franchise look pretty smart, but the decline looks to be settling in. How long can Troop hold out for?

Martinez who was acquired from Valencia last season was outstanding with Edmonton accruing 72 innings pitched for a 2.38 ERA (2.64 FIP), only 59 hits allowed, a 0.92 WHIP and 83 Ks for 2.2 WAR with Edmonton and 3.3 for the season. He makes 5.5 mil this year and 12.5 mil for the three seasons following this one which should bridge the gap to allow some of the younger Edmonton prospects to develop and settle in. Gallegos used to be a big question mark for Edmonton with really inconsistent play at times. He probably cemented himself in the rotation last season after he pitched 152.2 innings with a 3.77 ERA (3.88 FIP), a 1.16 WHIP and a 2.1 WAR. Gallegos was exceedingly solid last season and the expectation is for him to continue his solid play.

Akahori, Bbosa and Halford are all fighting for the remaining two slots in the rotation. Bbosa was good in 2042 with 110.1 IP with a 3.59 ERA, but came screeching to a halt in 2043 when he started out the season getting rocked. Later in the season Edmonton would call him back up after a short stint in AAA, but Bbosa never really got it together. He ended the season with 74.1 IP, a 5.33 ERA (5.43 FIP), 1.24 WHIP for a -0.4 WAR. Halford was pretty reliable outside of a five week stint on the IL. He pitched in 116.2 IP with a 4.63 ERA, 1.27 WHIP for 2.5 WAR. Not bad for a bottom of the rotation guy. Akahori was jotted down as a spot starter at the start of the season took over the job once Bbosa fell out of favor and the power lefty ended the season with 129.2 IP, 2.92 ERA (3.70 FIP), 1.03 WHIP for 2.0 WAR. Really solid for Akahori. This would lead you to believe that Halford and Akahori likely round out the rotation. However, we should get a good look this spring at a couple of Edmonton prospects that fans have had their eyes on for a couple of seasons now.

Amos Swallows looks destined to start this season after performing really well in AAA in 2043. He only had a bit over half of a season in AAA as he spent some time in AA to start the season, but he pitched in 101.2 innings with a 3.45 ERA in AAA with a 0.98 WHIP for a 2.6 WAR. His 95 Ks are notable as he bumped in stuff this offseason. However, he also took a pots lump in movement which is certainly concerning and he needs more time to develop the pitches outside of his knuckler. He may look too good to pass up to manager Juan Carlos Gonzales though. We'll see how he performs this spring.

Woertgen is the other pitcher Edmonton will take a long hard look at this spring. He had a full season in AAA in 2043 that saw him pitch in 201.1 innings with a 3.49 ERA, 1.08 WHIP for 2.8 WAR. It will be interesting if both Swallows and Woertgen look good this spring as it's not clear who Gonzales would move out of the rotation and with the bullpen being in such a strong spot last season, who would get cut? Woertgen doesn't look quite ready though. He turns 24 this season and still has two points of stuff and a point of control to progress into. My guess is that if Woertgen doesn't see some notable progress in the spring that we'll see him start the season in AAA, even if later he is called up.

Villa and Shibutani round out the youngsters trying to get in the door and Villa stands a good chance at making the team. Villa saw some limited time at the end of last season and looked great. He threw in 37 innings with a 3.89 ERA (3.80 FIP), 1.11 WHIP and struck out 31. Really good numbers for someone who was never supposed to see the majors last season. He even had a spot start in which he looked solid. His 7/4/8 ratings as a reliever look good enough to warrant the 27th man designation, but he'll have to fight for it. Shibutani is technically in the mix, but it doesn't seem very likely that he will start the season in the majors. He got rocked in AA last season with a 6.24 ERA in 141.1 innings so the team probably just wants to take a look at him against some major league level talent and then send him to AAA for a full season of work there as he is rated 8/3/6 for potentials, but only has 6/3/3 currently. Perhaps he will see more time in AA first to make sure he can mow that level of hitter down first.