42.13 Checking the Locks: Bullpen

[crobillard]

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the tenth of eleven parts. I will be taking a look into the bullpen in this post.

Sure fire locks:
Jorge Huerta
Ignacio Castaneda
Jose Torres
Luis Ortega
Ryosei Akiyama

Near lock:
Alfonso Guzman
Sean Spits
Vicente Ventura

Trying to get in the door:
Luis Marquez
Don Hinxman
Gus Garza
Bernard Keller
Wen Rui
Augusto Villarreal

Gosh, the bullpen has changed a lot in a year. Jose Luna's departure is the major loss here. He was likely the best bullpen arm last year after Huerta's demise. He'll get another shot this year, but this is the last year of team control and Huerta wants high end closer money, so if he doesn't perform well this season than it's likely he doesn't get resigned by the Jackrabbits. A year after his 20 win 2.28 ERA relief season, Huerta went 5-9 last year in 145.1 innings with a 5.64 ERA, 151 hits allowed, 26 homeruns and 152 Ks. His FIP was 4.95 so this was definitely a performance thing and not all related to a bad defense. With no ratings changes, Huerta should be performing better and I'm crossing my fingers that he will.

Of course the big acquisition is Ortega, who is on his fifth team in seven years. Edmonton does seem more open to the option to committing to older players as one of the top 10 oldest teams in the league. Ortega is getting $10 mil in this first year and 6.5 mil the next three years while the team attached friendly team options the last two years of the team that allow the Jackrabbits to hold Ortega accountable to his performance as he gets older. Ortega fits the way Edmonton has been using their relievers the last couple years too. He's never pitched more than 84.2 innings in a season and that happened in his third season in 2034. Ortega could expect a much higher workload in Edmonton. If Luna's any kind of forecast, he pitched in 107 innings last season and Ortega might see even more innings than that if Edmonton continues using their relievers in a stopper role. Ortega fits that usage though with his 8 stamina. Between him and Huerta they could soak up a ton on innings on a team that's predicted to struggle mightily in the rotation.

Torres is the other notable acquisition this offseason. Torres was in Edmonton before for 2.5 seasons before being shipped out to Vancouver. It's not clear how Torres will be used, but his success lends to the thought that he will take a stopper role as well, but with a 2 stamina, he might not be the best option to go more than an inning which puts him solidly in closer/setup territory. The team used him extensively when he was on the Jackrabbits, but in Vancouver he was used minimally. Based on the contract he was given at 3.4 mil per year over four years, that would suggest the team plans to use him extensively once again.

Rounding out the sure fire lock acquisitions is Akiyama. The power lefty has seen significant success in Brooklyn the last seven seasons evidenced by a 3.36 FIP over that time. He's not just a lefty killer either. The 27 year old performs well against either side of the plate. Something to watch out for is that he's had some major injuries in his career including a rupture finger tendon that put him out eight months in 2037, a strained hamstring that had him out four months in 2038 and a torn rotator cuff that set him back four months in 2039.

Successful sidearm pitcher Castaneda was one of the team's best pitchers on the team. He threw in 44.2 innings last season which is his highest total in his career. His issue is that he gives up quite a lot of homeruns with eight getting launched off of him. Not atrocious, but not what you want from someone trying to shut down some games for you after a pitcher's duel.

Only four sure fire locks, leaves a lot of room for additional players to get on the team so clearly this spring will mean something to a lot of players coming out of the bullpen. Guzman and Ventura were solid options last season, but with the addition of Ortega and Akiyama that can handle lefties just as well, Ventura might be getting pushed out. Ventura isn't a true lefty specialist either though, so the team could find a way to squeeze him in. A .290 opponent average last season and a 5.16 FIP have the Jackrabbits looking elsewhere for more dominant options. Guzman was far more solid in limited work with his 3.52 FIP in 56 innings of work. An ERA+ of 120 puts him much closer to sure lock territory, but at only 23 years old, potential of last year being a fluke season and a much higher competition level for spots in the bullpen this season, it could force Guzman to AAA to start the season, just like last year. Spits is another acquisition this offseason that was mostly acquired after the meme last season of the potential of seeing a Swallows-Spits box score someday, but luckily he's actually a decent pitcher too that had many years in Madison prior to joining Seattle for season and Charlotte for the last two seasons. Spits spent 55 innings on the mound last season, but had a 5.29 FIP. Charlotte's defense seemed to have saved him with brought him to a 4.42 ERA, 115 ERA+. He has a power pitcher makeup that the team seems to love with 60 allowed hits and 52 Ks with a 1.53 WHIP. Not the best option, so despite his 4 mil contract that trails off to 3 mil next year and 2 mil his final year, there is a solid chance Spits doesn't make it through Spring Training, especially with the competition for roster spots the way it is.

A gaggle of players rounds out out list of players trying to get in the door. Marquez is the youth prospect option at almost 23 got his first taste of the majors last September signaling that the team may view him as a potential option out of the bullpen this season. However, he didn't exactly dominate in his 58.2 innings in AAA last season with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. I am looking for a better performance from players than that before they are called up to the bigs. With the competition as strong as it is Marquez probably needs a really good spring to claim a spot.

Keller, Garza, Hinxman, Villarreal and Rui are all emergency options that are unlikely to make the team on opening day, but a good spring could start to open doors. I think the only one worth talking about is probably Keller. At 8/3/6 with 10/8 pitches, he seems to have a similar makeup to Castaneda, but he has less dominant stuff. It's worth noting he has been successful in the BBA in the past with Brooklyn for three seasons from 2035 through 2037 when he had an ERA+ of 160 or above in more than 68.1 innings each season. He also had a single season of success more recently with Vancouver in 2039 when he had a 149 ERA+ in 68.2 innings. That's the last time he's had any success in the majors though. Since then he dropped a point of movement and gained a point of control. He's likely to be the first emergency option called upon if the team needs it.

I'm projecting to have a pretty deep bullpen this year as we move towards a much higher bullpen usage than we've had in previous seasons due to a starting rotation that projects to struggle. I'm confident that whoever makes it out of the spring for the bullpen can help us be more competitive in individual games this season.

[jleddy]

Rounding out the sure fire lock acquisitions is Akiyama. The power lefty has seen significant success in Brooklyn the last seven seasons evidenced by a 3.36 FIP over that time. He's not just a lefty killer either. The 27 year old performs well against either side of the plate. Something to watch out for is that he's had some major injuries in his career including a rupture finger tendon that put him out eight months in 2037, a strained hamstring that had him out four months in 2038 and a torn rotator cuff that set him back four months in 2039.

[crobillard]

Rounding out the sure fire lock acquisitions is Akiyama. The power lefty has seen significant success in Brooklyn the last seven seasons evidenced by a 3.36 FIP over that time. He's not just a lefty killer either. The 27 year old performs well against either side of the plate. Something to watch out for is that he's had some major injuries in his career including a rupture finger tendon that put him out eight months in 2037, a strained hamstring that had him out four months in 2038 and a torn rotator cuff that set him back four months in 2039.

Yeah I know. Unfortunate, but at least I’ll have him back for the end of the season.