42.12 Checking the Locks: Rotation

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crobillard
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42.12 Checking the Locks: Rotation

Post by crobillard » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:27 am

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the ninth of eleven parts. I will be taking a look into the starting rotation in this post.

Sure fire locks:
Jubal Troop
Chandler Hall

Near lock:
Mauro Flores
Rodrigo Gallegos
Edgardo Torres
Juan Trujillo
Ryosei Akahori


Trying to get in the door:
Fedaku Bbosa
Randy Dickinson
Martin Villa

Julio Alicea departure to free agency leaves a huge gap in the rotation that is not going to get filled easily. The Jackrabbits have several options some internal and some signed during the offseason. Big shoes to fill regardless though, as Alicea was one of very few sure things we had on the mound. First, let's discuss our sure locks.

Jubal Troop returns for his fifth season with the team after having a statement season in which he won 21 games, the most in his career. He's also shown he can be remarkably consistent over his years with Edmonton, a reputation he didn't acquire when he was in Las Vegas for a brief stint. Last season he was 21-5 with a 4.38 ERA 4.82 FIP in 217.2 innings allowing 206 hits, 36 homeruns, and striking out 204 for a 1.25 FIP and a 115 ERA+. He continues to amaze with the innings he can chew up in solid work while rated as a borderline starter by OOTP. The big question for the 6'9" southpaw is whether this could be his last in the Jackrabbits uniform. He's making 11.43 mil, but at the end of this year is a player option, so if he does well, he might want to cash in and get his own big payday after seeing his friend Alicea do so.

This season really feels like a changing of the guard though. Hall has been unable to work a full season since starting in the majors and he has never seen opening day. He's projected to be the opening day starter and fans are elated to see him since he's coming off that masterful performance against the Nine in game 7 of the Landis. You have to think that Hall will be able to complete a full season at some point. Is this the year? I hate even talking about it because on any given sim he could just be knocked out for 11 months and I'm fucked. I kind of like it though. Russian roulette every sim. It'll likely be the first thing I look at even before my W-L record lol. Not that there was any serious question, but Hall performed well last season in limited work coming off a Torn UCL going 6-3 with a 4.29 ERA 3.98 FIP over 79.2 innings of regular season work with 84 hits allowed, 10 homeruns, 71 whiffs and a 1.27 WHIP. What was more impressive was his postseason performance going 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA, 2.94 FIP in 7 starts over seven innings with 31 hits allowed, 34 Ks, 1.08 WHIP and an ERA+ of 172. Really solid and without him we would not have won the Landis. This is a definitive changing of the guard, welcome to the new ace of the Jackrabbits...when he's not injured.

Flores and Gallegos are a difficult call to make as near locks. I'm hoping they will be fine and round out the middle of my rotation and if you look at the numbers from 2040, how are they not sure locks? Well, you would have to look at the 2041 numbers for that. I didn't trust Flores at all last season. In fact, I had so much anxiety starting him that I only gave him one start in the postseason. At 34 years old, Flores went 10-8 with a 5.45 ERA, 5.27 FIP in 173.1 innings with 205 hits allowed, 34 homeruns allowed, 155 strikeouts with a 1.52 WHIP and only a 92 ERA+. You're definitely looking for a better performance from someone in your #3 slot in the rotation who had a 128 ERA+ in 195.2 innings the previous season. If age is catching up with him it's not really showing in his ratings. Still at 8/5/7 with 8/9/1/7/7/6 pitches Flores has only lost a point of stuff since the 2040 season and is still rated 55 at age 35. Still, it will be clear that if he's still slowed this season than Flores has lost the magic that he once had. Luckily for the Jackrabbits, this is his last season on contract and if he does well this season perhaps I could convince him to sign a one year contract or something with team options.

Gallegos is in a similar position as Flores, but more than a decade younger. His emergence in the 2040 season was excellent with 86.2 innings with a 138 ERA+ and 4.36 FIP, but last year fell flat in full time work with a 7-5 record, 149.1 innings with a 5.85 ERA, 5.63 FIP, 186 hits allowed, 27 homeruns, only 112 strikeouts, 1.59 WHIP and a miserable 86 ERA+. Does that sound like a #4 starter to you? He's rated 6/6/7 with 7/9/5/7 pitches, so he looks alright on paper to me, but something is wrong which pushes him out of sure thing territory.

Other candidates are Akahori, Trujillo and Torres. At the beginning of the offseason I thought we might finally be able to give Torres another shot. At one point he was performing very well in relief, so well that we gave him a starting opportunity, but he didn't perform well in his spot starts. Now, he's lumped pretty hard from 6/7/5 at one point to a lowly 5/5/4 as a starter. Given his ratings, I gave too much to Trujillo to ensure I had another option who has had success in the league. Trujillo is the desperate hail mary pass for me. Some might like the experiment, but he's terrifying to me. When I originally acquired him from Hawaii I thought a 12/1/9 pitcher could be really interesting in a pitcher's park that swallows up homeruns in the outfield, but that interest faded in less than three months game time when I flipped him over to Madison. He's had a bunch of injuries since then, enough to gain the title of wrecked for his injury status, but none of his injuries seemed particularly significant until he torn his elbow ligament last season which put him out for eight months. Before then, he's performed well in Madison. In 2040 he went 11-8 with a 4.21 ERA, 3.91 FIP in 181.2 innings with 175 hits allowed, 33 homeruns, 227 strikeouts with a 1.19 WHIP and a 112 ERA+. Certainly the type of performance anyone would enjoy from a pitcher experiment. A major concern though is that after his injury he lumped really hard to a 9 stuff and 6 control. Now rated 9/1/6 with 9/4/10/7/6 pitches and a 45 overall rating, his 2042 performance will be under a microscope. I'm inclined to think he will do really poorly, because if a 9/5/6 pitcher in Flores can struggle as badly he did than surely a 9/1/6 pitcher will do way worse. We also never got to see how Trujillo would so against the offensive surge of 2041, so if he didn't get injured last season, he might have still gotten rocket before the lumps. I'll try him out in the spring though and see how I feel about him. Maybe ship him out if I don't feel there's a role.

Akahori might be the betting option to make the team out of this group since he is last year's #5 starter before Hall came back from his injury, but a 4-5 record, 6.50 ERA, 5.66 FIP in 88.2 innings with 100 hits allowed, 16 homeruns and only 78 strikeouts for a supposed lefty power pitcher and an atrocious 77 ERA+ might give you an understanding of why I am seeking alternative options. I need at least two of these near lock guys. One to slot in at #5 in the rotation and one for a slot role either as a #6 on long trips or to slot in when there is an injury. Ideally, we could I identify a few of these guys though. We could potentially have two pitchers in our rotation with terrible injury histories. That's a scary proposition that could lead to many, many pitchers getting a chance to start this season.

That opens the door for Bbosa, Dickinson and Villa. Dickinson has been trying to prove he's worth a shot for awhile now. At 23 years old, it's certainly not too late. The lefty has 5/5/4 ratings and his control could develop to 5 with 6/9/6 pitches. He was regulated back to a spot starter role in AAA last season appearing in 96 innings with a 1.19 WHIP and a 116 ERA+. I project him to be an emergency option just like last season, but if he impresses in the spring, who knows what could happen with all of the unpredictability on our pitching staff. Bbosa is a pretty interesting option that I flirted with at the end of last season. He's 21 years old and rated 7/5/6 with 9/7/9 pitches. He's a 4 stamina Ugandan righty that really was the ace of the AAA staff last season with a 10-4 record, 3.76 ERA, 3.79 FIP, in 129.1 innings, 106 hits allowed, on 11 homeruns allowed and 117 Ks. Respectable numbers that certainly deserve a closer look in the spring. The issue is that he saw 14 innings in September last season and gave up 11 earned runs. Only struck out 7. Really bad, so I'm not sure he's a great option to send to the woodchipper of the BBA just yet. Villa is another projected emergency option, but a much worse performing one. His ratings look alright at 6/4/7 with 8/7/5 pitches and his control could bump to 8 at some point, but the 23 year old righty just hasn't put it all together. An 11-6 record in 141 innings with a 5.43 ERA last season in AAA just rules him out for the majors this season, but I'll take a closer look in the spring and decide if he's even an emergency option or strictly needs another season in AAA to get that control up.

That rounds out the rotation. With exactly two starters that will definitely make the roster, this is clearly a position that the Jackrabbits need to upgrade and fast. Troop might even leave after this season and that leaves only Hall. If Flores isn't resigned too, then the Jackrabbits are out of any veteran options who have had consistent success at any point in their career.

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Re: 42.12 Checking the Locks: Rotation

Post by jleddy » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:55 am

crobillard wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:27 am
I hate even talking about it because on any given sim [Hall] could just be knocked out for 11 months and I'm fucked. I kind of like it though. Russian roulette every sim. It'll likely be the first thing I look at even before my W-L record lol.
You're one sick puppy.
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

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