41.11 Checking the Locks: Final Results

[crobillard]

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the last part of the series. I will be providing some results for the locks I chose, how it compares to 2039 and I will update it with a later post with which players make the active roster for Opening Day.

Sure fire locks:
Eric Fabre
David Katzenbogen
Fernando Cruz
Mons Raider
Jharod Thealer
Yi-ke Hsaio
Steven Collins III
Joey O'Brien
Jose Salas
Wilson Villanuela
Niccolo Machiavelli
Myeong-hwan Kim
Jubal Troop
Mauro Flores
Julio Alicea
Chandler Hall
Rodrigo Gallegos
Ryosei Akahori
Jorge Huerta
Jose Luna
Ignacio Castaneda
Vincente Ventura

Near locks:
Hakim Ngowa
Pedro Huerta
Edgardo Torres
Alfonso Guzman

Trying to get in the door:
Leon Romo
Takeichi Ohayashi
Carlomaria Donadoni
Tim RayPepe Espinosa
Miguel Deleon
Jose Salas
Julio UribeLorenzo Leon
Jerry Bell
Sebastian Fradesso Robert Menzies
Randy Dickerson
Ephrem Lacchelo
Arturo Lopez
Luis Marquez
Don Hinxman

We have a total of 22 sure fire locks this season up two from last season and looking back to my first season doing this series in 2037, we only had 13 sure fire locks! So, as far as how I feel about the team, we've certainly gotten better in my eyes. This leaves five positions up for grabs. If the four near locks make the team we have room for one selection from the trying to get in the door section. However, we have two injuries to start the season with Chandler Hall out until July possibly and Machiavelli out for the first week. There are 17 players that are near locks, but if all of the sure locks and near locks make the team minus Hall and Machiavelli, this is where we stand:

Catcher - 2
Infield - 8
Outfield - 4
Rotation - 6
Bullpen - 5

This is almost the same as last season aside from a move to one more infielder and one less outfielder. The total numbers are the same due to the two injuries to start this season. The most glaring hole to start the season is the outfield. We definitely need more than four outfielders to start the season. Due to the injury to Hall I could see another pitcher making it though, but without a decent option that's questionable. The Jackrabbits could totally roll out 11 pitchers to start the season and hope that Huerta can soak up innings again. The only other consideration is that Huerta is opening the season with a day to day injury, a mild abdominal strain. That could be enough to want to call up someone like Dickerson or Lopez and hope the team never has to use them.

2040 Additions:
Ngowa, Guzman, Marquez, Hinxman, Laccelo, Leon, Dickerson, Donadoni, Huerta, Fradesso, Menzies, Bell, Uribe, Espinosa,

2040 Subtractions:
William Wood, John Garcia, Chet Parrish, Jose Torres, Quan Tse, Widodo Kawilarang, Johnny Morin, Jorge Elizondo, Juan Reyes

13 players were added year over year to this series while nine were removed due to trade, free agency, non tendering, waiver wire or were not invited to spring training. The WAR change is a big deficit this year as we are moving the team into a younger direction as we turn to our prospects to start filling roles for us. In the end it's only 3.6 total WAR lost though. Wood is now with Nashville, Garcia went to UMEBA, Parrish was signed by Atlantic City, Torres is doing well in Valencia, Tse is a free agent, Kawilarang is with the Twin Cities' AA affiliate, Morin is a free agent, Elizondo is with Boise's AA affiliate and Juan Reyes is with Nashville's AAA affiliate.

[crobillard]

Here's the roster for Opening Day!

Catcher
Eric Fabre
David Katzenbogen

Infield
Fernando Cruz
Mons Raider
Jharod Thealer
Yi-ke Hsaio
Steven Collins III
Joey O'Brien
Hakim Ngowa
Miguel Deleon

Outfield
Wilson Villanuela
Jose Salas
Myeong-hwan Kim
Jerry Bell
Pedro Huerta

Rotation
Jubal Troop
Mauro Flores
Julio Alicea
Rodrigo Gallegos
Ryosei Akahori
Edgardo Torres

Bullpen
Jorge Huerta
Jose Luna
Vincente Ventura
Ignacio Castaneda
Alfonso Guzman
Arturo Lopez

At the beginning of last season at this same time I said

infield backups are a concern. Outside of the Hsaio/Thealer platoon, if more than one player go down in the infield, we don't have great options.

The first sentence in evaluating my team last season becomes the biggest issue at the end of my season. We recovered fine from the injuries to O'Brien and Thealer and ended up winning the division without it getting all that close since we got the bye too, but the fact that it was so scary and I knew it from the first moment of the season is funny. I didn't predict the issue in my rotation though.I didn't expect to need to rely on Hall so much.

I had some tough decisions, but there were some easy ones. Espinosa and Donadoni weren't ready. Donadoni had a .200 batting avg in the spring, Espinosa fared better with an .879 OPS, but with more time in AAA he'll develop a bit more. Huerta has a 1.014 OPS and it's not difficult to call him up to start the season. I thought about stashing him in AAA for a sim or two to save the time in arbitration. I don't want to though. I want his help to get some wins. He should perform better offensively than last year's outfield and I want to cash in on that immediately. Menzies was a more difficult decision than I anticipated because he tore up spring training with a .340/.424/.480 batting line with seven doubles and seven walks in 50 ABs. He has yet to play a season in AAA though and I want those points in eye for him. I would also like him to spend more time in center field and shortstop because I think he can get higher ratings in those positions. Fradesso didn't play great in the spring with only a .250 batting average. Uribe didn't get a single hit in 20 at bats and he's supposed to be a high contact hitter.

The real decision came down to whether to keep Deleon, Leon, Ohayashi or Bell. None of them played much in the spring unfortunately, but they all have specialized roles and I ended up keeping two of them. Deleon can play the corner infield. This is important because I don't have a backup for Collins. Ngowa can do it, but he's rated a 3. Collins is durable, so I don't have a ton of concern. I certainly don't need a guy with an 8 rating at third like Deleon has, just to backup a guy who never gets injured. Deleon is fast though too. A 13 speed rating with an 11 steal and 11 baserunning. Basically a young Mons Raider on the basepaths without the on base talent. That's tempting. Leon is a lefty bat that I'm kind of lacking now that I moved away from Wood and Dalrymple. He's solid, but unspectacular. He does have 7 power against RHPs though and power is something I don't have a ton of either and I definitely don't have a power bat coming off the bench like I had with Garcia. Ohayashi is probably the best pure hitter of them all with a 9 gap power rating. I have a lot of confidence that he'll perform well at the plate if I could find a spot for him, but I between Raider, Hsaio, Cruz and if I kept Deleon I would have four other people that could play first base and it's the only position Ohayashi can play. I have a lot of good contact/gap bats that can come off the bench that are better than Ohayashi too. Finally this leaves Bell. I need an outfield option off the bench to cover Machiavelli's injury. He's not a good option offensively, but he's rated a 10 at center, so in a pinch this first week or so he can be valuable.

I ended up going with Deleon and Bell to start the season off. Lopez earns a spot for now and I cross my fingers hoping that he is never on the mound. When Machiavelli comes back I replace Bell and when Hall comes back I can move Lopez back down to AAA. If Lopez gets blown up I might swap him out for one of the other pitchers trying to get in the door. Dickerson, maybe? Yikes. Huerta has a day to day injury, but I'll end up starting him anyway hoping for the best. He's supposed to be durable.