41.9 Checking the Locks: Rotation

[crobillard]

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the ninth of eleven parts. I will be taking a look into the starting rotation in this post.

Sure fire locks:
Jubal Troop
Mauro Flores
Julio Alicea
Chandler Hall
Rodrigo Gallegos
Ryosei Akahori

Near lock:
Edgardo Torres

Trying to get in the door:
Randy Dickerson
Ephrem Lacchelo

With the departure of Chet Parrish, Akahori/Gallegos join the rotation after good seasons in 2040. Hall is injured through April and May with a potential return in June or July after his nasty UCL injury in August. There's a lot we can talk about here, so let's go down the line.

It all starts with the ace on the staff which continues to be Jubal Troop despite other pitchers having more success. The hard throwing iron man lefty is the most consistent among them all with a 14-9 record last season, a 4.25 ERA with a 4.11 FIP in 201 innings with 190 strikeouts. For the first time since 2035 he had fewer strikeouts than innings pitched though so this may smell of a decline from the nearly 31 year old Edmonton ace. Still, with a 3.8 WAR last season and only allowing 190 hits, he wasn't bad.

In his first full season in Edmonton the now 34 year old Flores returned to his old Brooklyn form. He was 15-6 with a 3.59 ERA, 3.44 FIP, in 195 innings with 200 Ks and only allowing 172 hits. Amassing a 5.4 WAR. He lumped a point of movement this offseason, so he may start to struggle, but with Edmonton's park swallowing homeruns so often, I think we can expect Flores to continue to be solid.

This is all leading up to Alicea so far though. The trade for him was never supposed to bring me the returns that it did. He's almost 31 years old now, but last season was his best in the majors. He was 18-7 with an incredible 2.59 ERA which was extremely lucky due to his 3.49 FIP, pitched in 215.2 innings, allowing 190 hits while striking out 159 batters. His 5.8 ERA was one of the best in the league. He wont have another campaign like that this season, but if he comes anywhere close Edmonton should be able to contend again this season.

If Alicea struggles though, a complete half season from Hall should help the team down the stretch. A UCL injury back in August put him out for 10 months, but Hall doesn't lump apparently. He bumped in stuff and if he can ever complete a full season he will quickly become the team's ace. He was called up in June and collected 16 starts last season good for a 7-3 record with a 2.83 ERA, 3.19 FIP in 92.1 innings with 68 hits allowed, 12 walks and 85 Ks. He'll be 22 by the time he's back in the rotation and currently stands at 9/6/9 actuals with 10/8/8/9/2 pitches and a 10/7/9 potential with 10/8/10/9/3 pitches. He's nuts. His stamina is still sticking at 4 but obviously it's in precarious position where at any moment he could be moved to a bullpen role.

Gallegos and Akahori split time in the number five slot in the rotation last year with one of them sometimes coming in as a spot starter to give the rotation some relief. Akahori wasn't bad, but Gallegos was more successful. First, Akahori is rated 8/5/5 with 11/6/3/7 pitches. Last season he pitched in 33 games, 15 of them starts with a 7-4 record, three saves, 119 innings, allowing 105 hits, 42 walks and striking out 97 batters. His 5.31 FIP though is very concerning. We don't have the outfield that we used to. Gallegos was more successful in limited time last season. He had a 6-2 record with a 3.32 ERA in 27 games, 10 of them being starts, 86.2 innings, allowing 73 hits and 30 walks while striking out 56 batters. His 4.36 FIP suggests that he could be more successful than his lefty counterpart Akahori. Then again, maybe this entire rotation depended on the range of my outfield last season. Terrifying.

What is more scary is our backup options if we have an injury before Hall comes back. Torres did great as a reliever last season. He's rated 6/6/5 with 8/8/7 pitches. He was 5-2 with a 2.88 ERA in 36 games with 78 innings pitched allowing 77 hits, 29 walks and striking out 54. If he can continue those results from the bullpen I'll be happy with him, but his ratings don't suggest that is going to be possible. Crazier things have happened though and in Edmonton's park any pitcher can be productive.

If Dickerson or Lacchelo ever start for Edmonton, we're in a very bad spot. Dickerson is rated 6/5/4 with 6/9/6 pitches. He's a lefty that pitches slightly better against righties but it's not good enough to make him interesting. Dickerson is bad and I never want him on the mound in Edmonton. Lacchelo is not better. He's rated 6/3/5 with 7/9/7 pitches. He's 27 years old so he might not be around for long. Edmonton needs backup starters fast, but with the price of pitchers in trades it might be more likely that the team looks deeper into their minors and calls up a prospect that didn't get a chance to perform in the Spring.