40.9 Checking the Locks: Starting Rotation

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40.9 Checking the Locks: Starting Rotation

Post by crobillard » Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:26 pm

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the ninth of eleven parts. I will be taking a look into the starting rotation in this post.

Sure fire locks:
Jubal Troop
Mauro Flores
Julio Alicea
Chet Parrish

Near lock:
Rodrigo Gallegos
Ryosei Akahori

Trying to get in the door:
Edgardo Torres
Chandler Hall
Johnny Morin

This is an interesting group that only sees two returning pitchers from this time last year. Troop and Parrish are the only pitchers past their freshman year in Edmonton. Troop being the ace and taking over definitively from former franchise face Bobby Lynch and Parrish in his 7th year with Edmonton and he's been mostly consistent during that time.

Somehow Troop is still putting up good numbers in Edmonton with two mid 4 WAR seasons the last two years. I actually tried to scale back his workload at the start of 2039, putting him on a pitch count to begin the season. Once the bullpen started to get exploited for the pile of trash heap that it is, that's when I decided to cancel the plan. Trading Lynch also helped push the needle in leaning on Troop more too. The last two seasons look very similar the iron man, power lefty with 2038 resulting in a 15-8 season with a 4.03 ERA, 241.1 IP, allowing 233 hits, 30 homeruns, 85 walks, and striking out 247 batters for a 4.4 WAR. 2039 continued exactly where 2038 left off with a 14-14 record, 4.12 ERA, 233.2 IP, 214 hits allowed, 33 homeruns, 68 walks and 240 Ks for a 4.5 WAR. I have no reason to expect anything different from the big 6'9" 12 curveball hurler. He is turning 30 this season though and his third pitch a 4 rated changeup, so he can become a reliever in a hurry.

I love talking about Parrish because I always thought he should be a lot worse than he is lol. Somehow he's incredibly average and continues to put together solid seasons. You would think every once in awhile he would get destroyed. Instead, over six seasons in Edmonton he's collected 15.5 WAR and prior to last season, aside from his rookie season where he only pitched in 66.2 innings, he never had a season with less than 2.3 WAR. His highest WAR was 4.0 in 2036. This is all leading up to his first down year and the first time I have to consider a replacement at some point due to some regression he's had. After dropping to 5 stuff last season, Parrish is currently rated 5/7/7 with 8/7/7/4/5 pitches. He ended last year 9-9 with a 4.54 ERA, 174.1 innings, 206 hits allowed, 31 homeruns, 45 walks and 107 strikeouts in 30 starts for a 1.3 WAR. He improved his movement to 7 this offseason, so hopefully this means he's just going through a transformative change into more of a finesse pitcher than he was, but at only 26 years old, I was hoping he would avoid any lumps.

Now, we get to the fun stuff. The flurry of additions through many different avenues, trades, FA signings, and minor league call ups. We'll start with our biggest free agent acquisition since I arrived to Edmonton, Mauro Flores. Another pitcher who moves to Edmonton after spending time in Vegas. Some might call it sloppy seconds, but I don't mind not being everyone's first. Flores came into the league with Valencia in 2029. He immediately established himself among the league's best and through eight seasons in Valencia he totaled a 127 ERA+ and 38.7 WAR. If you look at his history, he absolutely owned the Jackrabbits early in his career.

05/14/2030 Pitches a NO-HITTER against the Edmonton Jackrabbits with 10 strikeouts and 1 BB allowed!
08/17/2031 Pitches a 1-hit shutout against the Edmonton Jackrabbits with 12 strikeouts and 0 BB allowed!
05/13/2033 Strikes out 16 against the Edmonton Jackrabbits.

I don't think we keep career splits for players against a team, but I'm willing to guess he shut down Edmonton for the vast majority oh head to head matchups. Die hard fans in Edmonton did not forget his early dominance against their hometown team. At 29 years old, he was traded to Brooklyn where he saw continued success in the season and a half he was there. Then, he signed on with Las Vegas and while he still performed well, he was overpaid and both Flores and the team wanted to part ways, so he opted out of the contract via his player option after the 2039 season. Through two years in Vegas he was 23-19 with a 100 ERA+ in 60 starts for a total of 8.3 WAR. For Flores' career he's been seven time all star who has finished third or higher in Steve Nebraska Award voting twice back in 2034 and 2037. Coming to Edmonton is kind of a career resurgence for the 33 year old. He was signed to a 3 year/43.92 mil contract, so I think he will do really well here even if he regresses a bit like he did after the 2036 season where he dropped a point in movement and control. He also dropped a point in stuff after the 2037 season, but he's still rated 10/6/6 with 8/9/1/7/8/7 pitches, so I think he'll definitely perform well in our pitcher's park, at least as long as he holds those ratings.

Alicea arrived in a deal with Portland after their expansion draft that saw many players swapping uniforms. He easily makes the rotation just being a lefty and the best out of so much worst. He played in Seattle for seven seasons before electing for free agency after the 2038 season. He was signed by the Gamblers to a 6 year/53 mil contract. Last season he was disappointing to the Gamblers and left open to the expansion draft this past offseason. He was selected in the expansion in the 31st round by Portland and quickly flipped over to Edmonton. I guess Seattle would be considered a pitcher's park similar to mine, so I'm not expecting much of a change in Alicea's production from what he did there. However the last couple of seasons were a big change in Alicea's stats.

He's rated 6/6/8 with 7/8/8/1/8 pitches and over his seven seasons in Seattle he had a 4.32 ERA (108 ERA+) and with his durable injury rating, he soaked up a lot of innings ranging from 165.2 in his rookie season to as many as 221.1. He struggled mightily in his last season in Seattle in 2038 and I couldn't really find a reason why. It doesn't look like he lumped terribly that year. He went 13/13 with a 4.97 ERA, a run more than the year prior. He pitched in 206.1 innings allowing 234 hits, 29 homeruns, 71 walks, and struck out 155 batters for a 3.2 WAR. His first year in Atlantic City went similarly with a 7-12 record, 4.41 ERA, 175.2 innings, 179 hits allowed, 26 homeruns, 48 walks and 130 batters K'd. I'm expecting more of the same out of him this season.

Gallegos and Akahori were acquired in the deal with Portland in which 11 players changed teams. It was like Jeff Probst asked them to drop their buffs. Gallegos is more likely to fill in the number five slot in the rotation, but Akahori could be a spot starter. This year will be Gallegos' rookie season. At 21 years old, he's getting his first taste of major league action in Spring Training. He's rated 5/6/7 with 7/9/4/7 ratings and that 4 changeup could be a 6 if it ever fill out. Gallegos has done alright in the minors with Calgary's development teams. Last year he split his time between AA and AAA after performing well in AA with a 168 ERA+ in 83 innings, he was promoted to AAA and was challenged in his 61.1 innings. He has a 3-4 record with a 4.70 ERA with 58 hits allowed, six homeruns, 20 walks and struck out 48. I'm sure how well he'll do if I'm being honest. Our park will help a little bit, but the best I can probably hope for is a mid 4 ERA. Akahori pitched out of Las Vegas' bullpen for the last three season to widely varied success in his small sample size. 2037 he has a 2.21 ERA in 20.1 innings, 2038 saw 24.2 IP with a 6.93 ERA and last year was similar with 43.1 IP with 6.65 ERA. So hopefully he doesn't do that again lol. He's rated 10/6/5 against LHB, so if he performs well in ST and I can make a spot for him, I may restrict him to a specialist role.

Morin used to be on Edmonton before we let him walk after our Landis win in 2038. He's only 29 years old, but he lumped a bit last year to a 4 stuff, but bumped his movement to 7. It looks like he's lumped his pitches too. In only 32 innings that he pitched in Wichita he had a 7.31 ERA and opponents launched eight homeruns against him. I don't see him making the team as a starter, but we'll give him an opportunity. I mean he started for us in some capacity over five seasons and wasn't god awful I guess.

The more intriguing options for the fifth starter are Torres and Hall. Torres lumped a lot since the trade from Calgary with his movement and control dropping a point. He's now rated 5/7/5 with 8/8/5 pitches and the changeup is waiting on two points. The reason I put him here is because he did pretty well at the end of the season last year. He pitched in five starts and five relief appearances for 45 innings with a 2.80 ERA with 54 hits allowed, five homeruns, 13 walks and 24 strikeouts. So while I think I would prefer Gallegos or Akahori, I guess if he does really well in ST than I would have to consider him.

Hall requires a different thought process. First, I should mention that he's 20 years old and rated has fragile after a torn flexor tendon injury six months after getting promoted to Hawaii's Rookie league from their International complex. That injury later led his stamina to drop from 10 to 5 in a single lump and it's dropped another point to 4 since then. If he wasn't a very important pitching prospect this would probably not matter as much. Since he is important it's pretty scary to realize that another drop in stamina and he becomes a reliever. He's rated 7/6/9 with 9/7/8/8/2 pitches and 10/7/9 potentials with 10/8/10/9/3 pitches. I mean it's not the end of the world if he becomes a reliever. I need that too! I need starters a little more though and if I can squeeze 170 innings out of him that would be much preferred. The question for this post though is, does he make the team as a fifth starter? Last season he split his time between AA and AAA. He was mostly in AA for Hawaii and upon joining Edmonton he was promoted to AAA. in AA Hawaii he pitched in 49.2 innings with a 2.17 ERA only allowing 37 hits, six homeruns, nine walks and striking out 38. In AAA, he was challenged more to a 4.12 ERA in 63.1 innings with 74 hits allowed, eight homeruns, 13 walks and 50 Ks. I imagine he'll do well in ST. Assuming that, do we call him up? We could use him for sure. Do we NEED him? I think we can do okay without him. If Gallegos/Akahori/Torres are the number five starter, I think they're good enough to win a lot of games. Hall will make us better though. With so many uncertainties on the pitching staff it might be nice to have someone like Hall that I can count on. He has some points to improve on though and his development could slow down if I bring him up. If I wait he could lose that point of stamina and never be able to start.

Hall is a tough decision.

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