40.2 Checking the Locks: First Base

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40.2 Checking the Locks: First Base

Post by crobillard » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:22 pm

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the second of eleven parts. I will be taking a look into the first base position in this post.

Sure fire locks: Fernando Cruz, Mons Raider, Yi-ke Hsaio
Near lock: Takeichi Ohayashi

The highlight here is definitely Fernando Cruz. However, we are probably in a really difficult position if Cruz is at first base. His defense is god awful with just a 4 rating at first. His bat on the other hand is why he stays on the team. His ratings are much better than the production he's had for Edmonton thus far and it's likely because of his power hitting focus in a strong pitcher's park. Last season was tough for Cruz as he only hit .259/.340/.470 still good results, but definitely not the .299/.377/.544 162 game average he's had through his career. He's 31 years old and holding at 312 homeruns currently. He has an opportunity to hit 500 in his career, but with how quickly player trail off in the BBA, I don't think the odds are good for him.

The big acquisition at the start of Spring Training, Raider is a high skill player that brings a lot to the team if he can stay healthy. He projects to be the starting first baseman. He's been a second baseman for the majority of his career, but the last three seasons his ZR has been -23, -11.8 and -13.6 and the last two season he only played 94 and 82 games. The plus side of him is that he doesn't make a ton of errors. Only 17 in those last three seasons. He's played first base in the past, but not very much outside of one season. In 2035 he played 146 games at first with only two errors and a +5.4 ZR. That brings us to the issue with Raider, he's had major issues staying healthy the last two seasons. If you've lived under a rock and you're unfamiliar with Raider he's rated 8/5/2/9/8 with a 9 speed, 13 stealing and 11 baserunning. He's rated an 8 at first and 6 at second with defensive ratings of 3/11/4/10 in the infield. He's set records for stolen bases, but that was mostly earlier in his career. He's had two left knee injuries in the past 18 months which have likely slowed him down a bit, but you wouldn't know it from looking at him stealing bases last season. In 2038 he was 68/78 in stolen base attempts and last year he was 69/74. However, this is a guy that has averaged 140/159 PER SEASON through his career. Last year he even saw his hitting ability diminish with a .278/.416/.341 batting line and he's averaged .305/.415/.383 in his career. So, we're probably witnessing Raider's decline, but we're glad to have him regardless.

Hsaio's rookie season in 2038 was huge with a .280/.330/.462 batting line, a 2.4 WAR, 50 doubles, three triples and 17 homeruns in 586 at bats. Last year he was regulated mostly to a depth option, but he still put together 413 at bats and a .276/.338/.433 batting line with 27 doubles, a triple and 12 homeruns, so he's shown some consistency. The recent trade with Madison, puts Hsaio back in a depth position regardless of Fernando Martinez's departure. We should still see a heavy dose of Hsaio, he will likely be in all lineups against LHP and he'll be available once the injury bug shows up. As outlined in the previous paragraph, I expect plenty of injuries this season and Hsaio will hold an important role in decreasing some exposure to injury.

Last season Ohayashi was given an opportunity and was on the active roster for nearly the entire season, but he was not good. His defense at first is really good, but he hit in only six of his 32 at bats. Not good enough to get a good glimpse at him, but I would feel a lot better with him being the next guy up behind the normal injury rated Hsaio and fragile Cruz if Ohayashi hit a little better in his limited at bats. It's probably safe to say that Ohayashi is in jeopardy of losing his spot on the active roster, but we'll see if the former number five overall pick can provide a convincing argument to keep him on the team.

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