38.14 Checking the Locks: Starting Rotation

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38.14 Checking the Locks: Starting Rotation

Post by crobillard » Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:48 pm

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the ninth of twelve parts, including a prediction and end of Spring Training analysis. I will be taking a looking into the starting rotation in this post.

Sure fire locks: Bobby Lynch, Jubal Troop, Jesus Ramos, Chet Parrish, Francisco Ruiz
Near lock: Taisuke Suzuki, Johnny Morin
Trying to get in the door: Justin Sproule, Derrick Terry

The sure-fire locks are almost definitely my starting rotation. For the first time since Lynch's rookie year, he is going to be challenged as the ace of the team by Troop. Regardless of who gets the top spot in the rotation, these two vicious southpaws will make for a very difficult back to back combo that not many teams will be able to beat easily. Troop won the Nebraska award back in 2033 and he may have a shot to win this season as well with such a potent offense behind him in a pitcher friendly park. Lynch remember's 2033 because that was the year he won the newcomer of the year award and last year he won comeback player of the year, so Lynch is not a stranger to awards either.

I considered a couple of options with Ramos before spring training. I considered trading him and I considered moving him to the bullpen, but despite his limited stamina Ramos had a good season in 2037. After a season of relief pitching in 2036, Ramos was moved to a starting role out of necessity and he pitched in 156.1 innings and only allowed an ERA of 3.91. Under any metrics that's a really good season. Putting him in a rotation that has so many pitchers that can go deep into games allows the bullpen to rest on other days while providing a lot of support on days Ramos takes the mound.

Parrish was second in the rotation last year believe it or not. He was out late in the season for seven weeks after a rotator cuff strain. Given more time on the mound and last year may have turned out to be his best season in WAR. He ended the season at 3.6 WAR in 124.2 innings pitched. His best season was the season prior to that with a 4.0 WAR in 187 innings. Chet's success in 2037 can be further evidenced by a 145 ERA+. He was really fantastic last season and I'm hoping for more of the same from him.

My first acquisition this offseason was Ruiz from Brooklyn. Ruiz's most identifiable trait is that he gives up a lot of walks. In fact, I believe the term for the amount of walks he allows is a MEGA SHIT TON of walks. He allowed 96 in 216 innings of work. He kept his WHIP to a palatable 1.18 though. The key to his 6.7 WAR campaign last season is that he struck out 233 batters. If you were a batter coming to the plate against Ruiz last season, you had a 37% chance of your at bat ending in a strikeout or a walk. I thought that sounded high but compared to Frick Nebraska winner Miguel Ramos of California, that's only two percent higher. In fact, his numbers last season are eerily similar to that of Ramos.

Ramos: 22-4, 2.12 ERA, 32 starts, 216.1 IP, 154 Hits, 19 HRs, 66 BBs, 239 Ks, 6.9 WAR
Ruiz: 14-11, 3.16 ERA, 39 starts, 216.2 IP, 159 Hits, 14 HRs, 96 BBs, 233 Ks, 6.7 WAR

One could make the argument that Ruiz may deserve Frick's Nebraska award more than Ramos. I mean five less homeruns! :coffee:

Sadly, and we'll move past this quickly, but Ruiz lumped two point of stuff and will be a shell of the fantastic pitcher he was last season.

Moving on to Suzuki and Morin. I'd like Suzuki to continue on the tear he was on in the bullpen last season, but he also fell victim to the lump monster at the end of last season. He might still be fine because his curveball is so ridiculous, but I'm not expecting the campaign he had last year. Morin is another back up starter that could be at the bottom of rotation if I end up dealing one of these pitchers. Otherwise, he'll spot start to push the rotation into matchups I think favor us and I'll try and find him some time to see if he can be decent. Last year he had a 4.85 ERA in 172.2 innings while starting in relief of some injuries. I'm not sure I want him to have 19 starts like he had last season, but a few here and there mixed in with hopefully one other reliever with starting capability. That's all with the prediction that these guys make it through the spring. If either of them blow up in the spring we could totally see someone new in their roles.

Sproule and Terry are the most likely candidates. Sproule has been given opportunities. In 2036, he had an eyesore of a season when he got absolutely blistered with a 6.39 ERA in 50.2 innings, but he's a lefty with five okay pitches so maybe he could replace Suzuki if it came to it? Terry is probably a more likely option to make the jump permanently. After starting off last season very roughly, he worked in AAA to find his mechanics and he actually came out of it really well. He ended the season with a 4.19 ERA in 43 innings. I don't think anyone would say Terry is phenomenal, but at 23 years old maybe he deserves a couple starts to see what he can do.

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Re: 38.14 Checking the Locks: Starting Rotation

Post by RonCo » Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:59 pm

Deadly solid rotation.
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Re: 38.14 Checking the Locks: Starting Rotation

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:03 pm

I personally think troop is more of a #4 on this team than pushing to be the ace....
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Re: 38.14 Checking the Locks: Starting Rotation

Post by RonCo » Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:13 pm

The fact that one can actually argue about it says a lot.
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Re: 38.14 Checking the Locks: Starting Rotation

Post by crobillard » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:57 am

usnspecialist wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:03 pm
I personally think troop is more of a #4 on this team than pushing to be the ace....
So, originally I thought the same thing, but I looked at his past numbers in Montreal, in a more friendly park to pitchers and I thought maybe? I know he had better stuff back then, but he hasn't taken too much of a hit. I think he could have a big year. I'm excited about it. Of course since I am excited he'll likely have a 5-6 ERA and I'll hate him by the end of the season.

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