37-11 Checking the Locks: Bullpen

[crobillard]

This is a series where I will evaluate the options in each position leading into Spring Training. This is the tenth of twelve parts, including a prediction and end of Spring Training analysis. I will be taking a looking into bullpen in this post.

Sure fire locks: Jorge Huerta, Arturo Lopez
Near locks: Wen Huang, John Jefferson
Trying to get in the door: Ed Guis, Martin Bacardi, Ricardo Valera, Fernando Ambrogiani, Pjotr Eland, Jorge Elizondo

This group is extremely troubling to me. I have concerns about a lot of things on this team, but the bullpen is atrocious. Even our best players Huerta and Lopez have been shaky. Huerta's ratings of 9/7/7 with 9/7/1 pitches look alright, but that translated into a 7.86 ERA in 34.1 IP last season. I put him in the sure-fire locks category because I think he's a lot better than that, but he's on a very short leash. Lopez faired better with similar ratings last season. He'll battle out Huerta for the closer spot during the spring.

Huang and Jefferson are almost sure-fire locks, but I want to see how they perform in the spring. If they get shelled, then I may try and drop them down to AAA to get a better look at them, but my guess is that among this bunch that they probably have a job in my bullpen. I get concerned every time I see Huang's ratings of 10/5/5 with 10/8/7 pitches, but vs. RHB his ratings bump to 11/6/6. Last year he had a 3.60 ERA in 45 IP with a 1.58 WHIP and 53 Ks. His strikeout total probably bailed him out of a lot of jams and I wonder whether that 3.60 ERA could just as easily be 5.60, but I'll probably stick with him and see if he can continue to produce solid innings of relief.

Jefferson was a free agent signing this offseason and I think he will be a good addition, but as I am getting back into the swing of things, I feel like my ability to evaluate talent is not as well honed as it was during my previous time in the league. Apparently a lower movement rating can be alright now if all other ratings are good. I am testing that with Jefferson. He is a 9/5/8 pitcher with pitches of 8/8. He only has a fastball and a forkball and they guy throws extremely hard at 100+ mph. He has never been a knockout pitcher, but Hawaii had him for several years and in 178 IP throughout his career he's averaged a 4.55 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and 130 Ks. Obviously not great, but he could be better than some of the scrubs we had on the Jackrabbits last season (looking at you and your 0-14 record with a 6.25 ERA in 85 IP Jean Huguet).

Bacardi is another newcomer added this offseason. He has 7/6/7 ratings with a fastball and knuckle curve of 8 and 8. His ratings are 8/6/7 against RHB. The 32 year old's last impactful season was with Hawaii in 2035 where he pitched in 73.2 innings with a 4.15 ERA and struckout 43 batters with a 1.57 WHIP, so certainly not dominating. The previous seven years went very similarly in Omaha and Mexico. He is a very replacement level reliever. He's signed to a minor league deal, so if he impresses he may join the staff on the active roster.

Guis, Valera, Ambrogiani, Eland and Elizondo were all on the team last season. Valera is almost 39 years old and is definitely not the pitcher he used to be. He's went from a moderately high strikeout, solid reliever out of the bullpen with Las Vegas for several years to more of a control/finesse pitcher that barely gets any innings now. Guis's rookie season was last year and he had a 4.45 ERA in 32.1 IP. His 10/4/6 ratings concern me. Ambrogiani is one of two lefties that are solidly positioned in the bullpen. His 3 control rating is a big turn off for me. His 6.00 ERA last season in a very limited 15 innings is as well. Eland has 9/6/6 ratings with a negative split vs. LHB. He had an 8.44 ERA in 16 IP last season. Elizondo is interesting to me. He's a 21 year old LHP that has never played in the majors. His performance has been dominating in single A and double A and barely had any time in AAA. He has 9/6/6 ratings with 9/7/1 pitches. He has that weird reverse split where as a LHP he's actually drops a point in stuff against lefties, but gains a point in movement against righties at 9/7/6.

There are several pitchers contending for a spot in the rotation too, so if they don't work out they could be vying for a spot in the bullpen so they deserve some consideration as well. I have no idea what I am going to do with this group. I think the starters who are transferred to the bullpen could help round this group out a little better, but they don't make me any less concerned. I need to bring in better pitchers on this team in order to contend. I have some interesting cases that might just make this group serviceable in 2037, but any time we turn it over to the bullpen it's going to be teeth chattering and crossing our fingers. I can't really stay with the starters for too long either though because it's not like they are this overwhelmingly dominating group either. This is where the Jackrabbits will decide if they want to be a contender or not this season.