Louisville Sluggers Preview

[aaronweiner]

The Louisville Sluggers haven’t had a winning record in fifteen seasons. Stare hard at that sentence and imagine what it might be like to own a franchise that hasn't put together as many as 82 wins in that long, or being a fan in junior high that hasn't seen their team have a winning season in their lifetime. In fact, since 1998, the tortured Louisville fans have enjoyed a Slugger squad that won as many as 70 games only four times, and failed to lose 90 games just three times. The Sluggers haven't been part of any conversation for quite a long time other than top draft picks.

So why are the Sluggers suddenly the most compelling team in the MBWBA? Major acquisitions, young talent starting to blossom, and downtrodden veterans who have a solid chance for bounceback years are why, and no team was more active or moved more aggressively this offseason acquiring talent than Louisville. It’s possible that other than Calgary, no team has improved quite so much as the Sluggers. Louisville’s payroll is also now ninth in the league, which is a pretty large mark for a team that’s coming off a 94-loss season.

Let’s take a dive into this team and see why Louisville might have broken the curse.


Offseason moves:

The Sluggers didn't sign a single player in free agency, but have lots of new faces through trades. Here's the full list of Louisville trades:


Louisville acquires Ed Mansfield for two minor leaguers: This is the big one for Louisville. Mansfield is the first player who really changes the conversation in Louisville. Louisville gave up no on-field talent to acquire Mansfield, who has had six consecutive seasons of an OPS that's better than league average. Along with Devin Clark, Mansfield is immediately the Sluggers' most reliable offensive threat.

Will Craig for Jeff Hartle and a minor leaguer: Craig is a bit of a gamble for the Sluggers, but a cheap one: Hartle has consistently underperformed as a reliever for years. Craig had been one of the most consistent starters in the Frick for years until last year, when he imploded and lost 20 games. Either the implosion is real or the production beforehand is real; Craig's productivity will be a major factor in how Louisville does this year.

Kevin Spencer for a minor leaguer: Spencer is not a powerhitting first baseman, but he's a very consistent hitter who will get on base for the Sluggers. Another step forward for Louisville.

Iestyn Pilgrim, Waichirou Moronobu and a minor leaguer for Nathan Molnar: This was a straight-up salary dump by Atlantic City, as Louisville happily took on the contracts of Moronobu and Pilgrim and a prospect in exchange for a fairly consistent fifth starter in Molnar. It remains to be seen what what Moronobu has in the tank at the ripe old age of 40 (based on last year, not much), but Pilgrim is one of the MBWBA's most consistent and talented relief pitchers. We have no idea what the team will do with Moronobu, but we think that he might start at DH.

Overall, the Sluggers picked up three starters, a starting pitcher, a strong reliever and a prospect for a few decent project-type prospects and a couple of low-end pitchers. Giant steps forward for the Sluggers.


Your 2013 Louisville Sluggers

The Sluggers have improved in nearly every aspect of the game this season, and that's the sort of thing that should translate into more wins. Let's take a closer look at the current Sluggers' major league roster.


Starting Rotation

We're projecting the Sluggers carry thirteen pitchers.

The pitching staff is highlighted by Zach Bauer and Abe Colbert and one of the league's best fifth starters in Brian Bright, but big question marks at the other two spots. Bauer is a very solid young starter and had a great year last year. The saga of Abe Colbert has been well chronicled here; he's a consistent #2/#3 starter. Bright is probably capped above by his very marginal stuff and the fact that his GF isn't exceptional, but he's consistently league average - pretty good for a fifth-starter type.

Then we go to the big question marks with cool nicknames: Viper Richie and Dash Craig. Richie and Craig will determine what kind of year Louisville has; both pitchers have excellent track records but had terrible 2012 seasons. If this was 2012, we'd say that the Sluggers had a very solid rotation 1-5; as it is we'll have to wait and see what kind of year Craig and Richie have before we can make that statement. We'd put Len Tatum at the #4 spot in the rotation and Richie in the pen to put another lefty in the pen; plus, Richie's got a vesting option for $9 million and the Sluggers might not want to pay that considering that they already have two rotation lefties. That said, it'll more likely be Richie starting and Tatum relieving. They may even go with a six-man rotation.


Bullpen:

Though still very mediocre, Louisville's bullpen is improved this year. Luis Villa has had 22+ saves in each of the last three years and has pitched fairly well during that time. The addition of Iestyn Pilgrim (above) is a huge add. So the eighth and ninth innings for the Sluggers are ably manned. Louisville is hoping for big, bounce-back years from Nathan Campbell and Rich Kernoodle, but even those types of years would be about league average. Tatum will probably be in the pen, and Luis Garcia is the only bullpen lefty so far so he'll have to stick. We also know for sure that Arturo Selpulveda, the Sluggers Rule 5 pick, will be in the mix. We think that either Ricky Breshear or more likely Jose Cedeno will be an eighth man in the bullpen since there's no logical position player that makes sense for the Sluggers' bench and because neither player has options.


Pitching overall:

It's going to be the rotation that determines how good this unit is, as the bullpen is basically shooting for a league average ERA. We can expect at least a league average ERA from Bauer, Colbert and Bright, and if one of the two question marks in the rotation bounces back this year, the Sluggers could have a top-five pitching staff. If both bounce back and Bauer takes a big step forward they could be in the top three, but we're not betting on that. Pretty good work from the Sluggers here.


Position Players:

The lineup is obviously improved this year, but then it had nowhere to go but up. Louisville was dead last in runs scored in the MBWBA last season, the only team in the Association that scored less than four runs per game. Obviously the team has made huge strides forward; it remains to be seen what they will accomplish.

A few immediate improvements pop out. Kevin Spencer is a huge leap forward from the mishmash at first base last year headed by Millard Joseph, and obviously Ed Mansfield is better than either Orlando Mercado or the departed Julio Gonzalez. Add those guys to the consistency of Jorge Diaz and Devin Clark, and you have the beginnings of a very solid lineup.

A few internal improvements should help, too. For example, Daryl Cumberbatch, the likely starter at shortstop, won't be great, but he'll be better just by default. Adrian Vega should manage to outdo the -8.4 VORP posted by Pascal Brossard last season. So would Brossard. Guillermo Rodriguez was pathetic last year also, and he's nowhere near that bad. Torston Boss might fall back a little bit, but he should be serviceable at 2B.

We think that Waichirou Moronobu was probably called in to be the DH (since he can't field); we have no idea what to expect from him, but he posted a .352 OBP last year in limited action and Louisville would be thrilled with that number; they may also use Hank Sharp, who was extremely good last year, in that role a lot of the time.

The bench is fine, if heavily outfielder driven; we think the only backup infielder they're going to have available is Eddo Hopstaken.


Hitting overall:

We think that the Sluggers have what it takes to sneak into about a league-average offense this year. We'd say somewhere between 9th and 6th, which would be a massive improvement over last year's calamity. There are a lot of pretty marginal hitters on this team, but the good news is that they've improved overall. Moronobu is a free agent after the year, so they'll have some cap space to improve there this offseason and they have good help on the way in the minor leagues.


Louisville Projection for 2013:

Louisville has improved dramatically this season, but, remember, that's off a 94-loss season. Louisville is looking for a first step on the way to respectability, and this year might qualify quite nicely. The game has them at 73-89, a five-game improvement, but they don't think as much of their pitching staff as I do. The pitching staff could be good 1-5 and should at least keep them in a lot of games this season. We think they could finish 5th or 6th in ERA and 7th or 8th in offense, and that would be close to a .500 record.

Louisville could conceivably rise to 85 wins this year, but barring a serious disaster, we'd say between 75 and 85 wins looks like a fairly sure thing. We'll split the difference and say that this year will be the third time in 15 years that the Sluggers won't lose 90 games, but we're not brave enough to say they'll finish as high as .500 - I'm sure people have been burned in the past by doing that. We're pretty sure Louisville, with a top-four farm system, will take the improvement.

Projected Record for the Sluggers: 80-82.

[felipe]

I wonder what you'd say if I told you Hoppostaken will be playing shortstop everyday...ah...probably won't make much of a difference

The plan is to go with Richie, and if he falters, bring in Tatum, who will start in AAA as he's got one minor league option year left; conversely if Richie plays well, we'll pick up his vesting option gladly. (Everything dependent on Walden's continued development) Tatum will also be the first option in event of rotational injury...

I shouldn't have taken on Moronbou...but what the hell...its one year...and then he's gone after less than 100 at bats at DH.

But I don't think anyone has ever previewed the slugs at .500 before (and BTW I did lead them to a 83-79 record in 2009...picked up a shiny award for it too)

Thank you, great read

[aaronweiner]

Guffaw. I was staring at the projected record, which was 79-83.

But yeah.

[aaronweiner]

Oh. And virtually no difference with Hopstaken - I wouldn't project Cumberbatch as a really good hitter this year and Hopstaken actually outdid him at the plate last year (again, not saying much) and he's clearly much better with the glove.

[Cliche]

I love Bauer and Bright in the rote. Tough to find good lefties (at least in my experience) so having two long-term is pretty great.