2010 Phoenix Talon Preview

[mrbornac]

Thank you to Kyle for the format of the preview, I am stealing it here!

Offseason
Last season, Phoenix went a disappointing 73-89, good enough for only a .451 winning percentage and 3rd place, a scant 2 games out of the cellar in the JLM. 29 games behind the eventual league champions, the fans in Phoenix don’t want to see a repeat of last year's challenges.

Subtractions:

MR Jorge Hernanez – lost to Rule 5 draft to Vancouver

C Jeremy Small - lost in Rule 5 draft to Las Vegas

1B Christophe Garnier - lost in Rule 5 draft to Louisville, returned and released

SP Robert LaLoosh - claimed on waivers by Louisville

CL George Meade - claimed on waivers by Marquette

Additions:

MR Will Williams - claimed on waivers from Marquette

SP Harold Crothers - Free Agent signing from Chicago

CL Jim Haeng Kim - claimed on waivers from Montreal

SP Victor Leon - claimed on waivers from Valencia

C Joe Tillman - Free Agent signing from California minor leagues

Overall:

While the fans in Phoenix are looking for something to cheer for, this off season, it does not appear that the Talons are bringing much new hope to the valley of the sun. By mostly moving minor pieces back and forth, status quo seems to be the order of the day in Chavez Memorial Ballpark.

2010 Outlook

Pitching:

When talking about the Talons pitching staff, the first name that comes to mind has to be David Klopp. Will this be his 10th consecutive season with double digit wins, or does his reign of good fortune come to an end? My projection has Klopp squeaking out one more stellar season, before the wheels start to come off and his deal becomes a bit of an albatross. He is still striking out a good number more than he is walking, and his ERA+ last year was still a respectable 123. I have to wonder if the number of innings he has pitched will creep up on him, or if he will escape the mid 30’s injury bug that plagues so many pitchers. Tim Buchanan, who I expect to be the number two starter, had a very rough season last year, and you have to expect that he will return much closer to his career averages in 2010, and I expect he will shave 2 runs off of his ERA.. After ‘The Dragon’, the Talons throw Dalton Harrington and newly acquired Harold Crothers to the bump, the former a pitcher looking to finally break through, and the later a pitcher who is looking to hang on after being picked up as a free agent. Crothers has not started since his time in Madison back in 2006, and I don’t expect too much from him, but in the 4 spot, Phoenix won’t be asking for 25 wins either. The last starter will be determined in spring training I believe, with Javier Alejo and Lorenzo Morales battling for the last spot. My money in this fight is on Morales.

In the pen you have Pablo Romero closing games out, and he has proven himself to be a dependable closer for a team that is short on quality relievers. An All-Star last season, he had the second highest save total in the league at 38. Also pitching in relief are Marty O’Dooley, Ashley “Don’t call me a girl” Ridsdale, Matt Davis, Jeffrey ‘Dracula’ Martin, Clarence Werner, Jesse Lambert, and newly acquired Will Williams. This is a descent crew, and if I were Phoenix, I would expect to see this crew improve on the 5.2 runs allowed per game from 2009. But expectations are not enough to win games, performances are needed, and the lack of significant changes in the offseason leads me to think that any improvement will be limited.

Batting:

In ‘09, the Talon offence was below average, scoring a scant 4.7 runs per game, .2 of a run under the league average. This middle of the road offense screams milktoast, however there are some interesting players to be found here. Leading off is a youngster to pay attention to, Jose Cruz. In his cup of coffee from last season, Cruz did enough to earn a look this year and appears to have won the starting CF job.Cruz didn’t have a great year last season in AAA however, so we will see if this 22 year old can handle the load of playing every day. Jim O’Neill looks to be the starting 2B this year, after hitting for the highest average in nearly a decade, it’s reasonable to think that Jimbo will return to the mean a bit, and an average of .280 or so seems to be more realistic for him. The gold standard of the Talon offense is #22 1B Vincente Vasquez, who is coming off his fifth season out of the last six with at least 100 RBI and 30 home runs. Vasquez plays a solid 1B, so it’s safe to say a healthy season for him should equal 600 plate appearances, and plenty of chances to hit 30 and knock in 100 for another year. DH Cory Warr is one of the players that loves the fact that the MBBA has added a designated hitter, and he is making the most of the chances he has been given, and at the age of 32, last season he hit a career high 42 dingers, and matched his career high of 116 RBI. A hint to rival head coaches, don’t put a left handed reliever in for a close game when Warr is at the plate, he will make you pay! Next on our list is icon Steve Faulkner. While last year his 30 home runs were enough to move him over 300 in his career, and he is only about to turn 34, the 205 strike out last year was enough to make this reviewer cringe a bit. His OPS is surprising low in my eyes, and the most shocking number I have seen looking at the Talons are Faulkner’s 14 doubles last year.

Sam Brewington, a career Talon, is a fine catcher, while not a great defensive one. He had his lowest OPS in 5 years last year, and you would have to expect for a healthy Brewington to improve on the .725 from last season. Tulio Poblano, the Florida Pepper, is a solid left fielder and loves to hit singles and doubles when he is not taking long walks along the beach. He screams 4th outfielder, but will bat 7th in Phoenix. I PREDICT that 3B Tim Kendrick will have more strike outs than runs, walks, and rbis combined. Take it to the bank. It’s hard to do, but I think he has it in him. Jack McKeon Eoff has a great glove, and if he walked more, would be a fine addition to a team, but as it is, batting 9th is about what you could expect from this dude.

I expect Pat Larkin Jr to get plenty of shots to take over behind the plate, and Chris Fisher to challenge Jim O’Neill at second. Which other batters will likely fill out the 27 is a guess, so I won’t try that on for size.

Overall:

What does all of this mean? Phoenix is certainly in a tough division, one with the defending world champions, an improving Black Sox, and a very active Omaha squad. Give the fact that the Talon didn’t make any real changes to the team, while the rest of the division seems to not be standing pat, I think the odds in Vegas for Phoenix breaking their playoff drought in 2010 are very long.

Phoenix prediction: 71 wins, -2 from last year, tied for the worst record in the JLM.

[nerfHerder]

Yup. I'm done feeding prospects to other teams. Now the trick is to transform the team without completely bottoming out. Cruz is a good start.

[agrudez]

Phoenix prediction: 71 wins, -2 from last year, tied for the worst record in the JLM.

Wow, predicting CHI or OMA to win 71 as well? (and I assume more likely the latter)

Harsh man... just harsh.