Hawaii Tropics 2010 Preview: Fighting For The Pacific.

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The Tropics have developed into a very strong franchise in the JL over the last handful of seasons. They won the JLP for three straight seasons (2006-2008) and despite falling to second in 2009 still grabbed a playoff spot. Any time you've got a team coming off four straight playoff appearances, you know you're dealing with a pretty good franchise. The conventional concern at that point is whether the roster is aging, or getting too expensive to keep together. The Hawaii payroll is high at just over 100 million, but it's not at an unsustainable point and all the key guys are under contract for at least two years. There are some concerns about age particularly on the pitching staff, but I don't think that will really affect their prospects for victory in 2010. So let's get down to what they've done and what I think they'll do this season.

Offseason

The Tropics lost a handful of players to free agency. Starter Michael McNeill, reliever Adrian Nelson, designated hitter JC Marceau and first baseman Cody Chamberland. I would classify all of them as role players, although Marceau did play a fairly prominent role with almost 400 at-bats at DH (and solid power production with 20 HR despite an abhorent OBP of .284).

To counter those losses, they went out into free agency and signed closer Jimmy Cleaves, as well as hitters Cristophe Garnier and Michael Kern. Cleaves would seem to be a pretty average reliever who can contribute to a bullpen and won't kill you. Garnier was released by Phoenix for reasons that I am not aware of. He would appear to be a pretty good young prospect, although still a little raw. The addition of Kern will certainly offset any loss of power from Marceau's departure. Kern struggles to make contact at a great rate (.251 or lower for three straight years) but he has still shown an ability to get on base at a solid clip thanks to a good walk rate, and he's hit at least 22 homers in three straight years. So all in all, the offseason would appear to be a win for the Tropics, although a fairly quiet one.

Rotation

1. LHP Carl MacNeill (9/9/9)
2. RHP Johnny Carter (6/7/7)
3. LHP Jake Kestle (6/7/9)
4. RHP Michael Duran (7/6/7)
5. RHP Jose Baca (6/7/7)

That rotation also does not include veteran Jim Seddon, who will return in a couple of months and give them a big boost. He's their real #2 starter based on ability. Adding Seddon (a 6/8/9 RHP) to the rotation makes this a very strong group. MacNeill is about as good as it gets and he has all the tools to win another Golden Arm. Carter and Kestle are both very good pitchers with track records of success, and I see no reason to expect anything other than another season with an ERA in the 3's for each of them. Kestle is unlikely to throw four shutouts again, but he should remain a very effective southpaw. Duran and Baca will be battling (along with Rene Moncada) to keep a rotation spot when Seddon returns. Duran has a longer track record and the triple-digit fastball, but Baca was better in 2009. I think Moncada will end up in the bullpen unless one (or both) of them struggle early. If I had to bet on somebody to keep a rotation spot, it would probably be Duran. But who knows, the Tropics could even mix and match based on lineups with six (and seven when Seddon returns) capable starters.

Bullpen

1. RHP Josh O'Kennelly (9/9/8)
2. RHP Brandon Caldwell (8/9/6)
3. RHP Jimmy Cleaves (6/7/7)
4. LHP Naji Mcnitt (7/5/7)
5. RHP John Daniels (5/7/8)
6. RHP Ramon Baca (8/5/6)
7. RHP Rene Moncada (6/7/7)

This is a pretty steady looking group, with a pair of big arms to dominate the late innings. O'Kennelly looks like he'll be a stud stopper in this league for a long time, and Caldwell should prove to be an outstanding #2 guy after functioning as the closer in 2009. Former Marquette and Amsterdam closer Cleaves joins the bullpen to be at best the third guy, and that's a pretty good place to be. He's not a star, but he's still a steady pitcher who can give you 50-60 good innings. I'd say the same about Daniels who won't scare hitters with his stuff but uses his movement and command to keep runs off the scoreboard. Mcnitt will return as the lefty in the 'pen, despite a brutal 2009. He needs to cut down on the HRA (13 in 44 2/3 innings last year) but he's got the stuff to be a solid weapon in the 'pen. They've also got Ramon Baca and his triple-digit fastball back there, and I suspect he'll do what he's done the last few years in Hawaii (limited innings, good numbers). Moncada should make the staff as a mop-up/swingman type, I would think. Otherwise I'm not sure why Hawaii would pay him as they did. I'm not really a fan of 7-man bullpens, but with apparently 27-man rosters, there are plenty of spots available and the arms are of solid quality.

Lineup vs. RHP

1. LHB 2B Kanzaburo Yamaguchi (6/4/6/9/10)
2. RHB 3B Robert Jowers (8/7/5/8/8)
3. LHB C Pedro Berrios (9/9/7/2/7)
4. LHB LF Niguel Halime (5/5/9/8/6)
5. LHB RF Pat Clark (6/9/10/7/3)
6. RHB CF Jeff Stanley (8/5/7/5/8)
7. LHB 1B Félix Mendoza (8/5/9/3/6)
8. LHB DH Neil McKinney (6/7/9/5/5)
9. RHB SS Benton Bobke (5/6/8/5/5)

I'd say this is a pretty strong lineup from top to bottom. There is a lot of OBP up at the top of the order with Yamaguchi (.385) and Jowers (.398). You've got Berrios who can hit .300ish, give you a solid OBP and 15-20 homers in a good year. Then you've got Halime (at least 33 HR every year since 2003), Clark (four straight years of at least 27 HR), Stanley (35, 17, 21 HR the past three years) providing some big pop and good all-around numbers in the middle of the order. Mendoza, McKinney and Bobke continue the power through the entire bottom of the lineup. I would expect all three to post sub-.300 OBP totals, but last year they combined for 57 homers and I wouldn't be surprised to see that reached or surpassed in 2010. I don't think the lack of OBP at the bottom of the lineup hurts them a whole lot, since there are plenty of guys early in the order that will be on base. They have so much power throughout the lineup that I don't forsee run production being a problem at all. They may have some of the consistency issues that come with being a power-driven group, but they will also have plenty of nights when the scoreboard is full of crooked numbers.

Lineup vs. LHP

1. RHB CF Jeff Stanley (8/5/7/5/9)
2. LHB C Pedro Berrios (7/7/5/2/6)
3. RHB 3B Robert Jowers (9/7/5/8/8)
4. LHB DH Neil McKinney (5/7/9/5/5)
5. RHB SS Benton Bobke (6/6/8/5/6)
6. RHB 1B Diego Virola (6/8/6/7/4)
7. LHB LF Niguel Halime (4/5/9/8/6)
8. LHB 2B Kanzaburo Yamaguchi (5/4/5/7/9)
9. LHB RF Pat Clark (5/7/7/6/2)

This lineup isn't quite as strong, given the number of lefties and the fact that their platoon splits are working against them. Thankfully the presence of Stanley and Jowers does gtive them a couple of pretty darn good right-handed bats to help buoy the top of the order. There is some pop throughout the lineup from Halime and Clark, it's just going to come down to how often they're able to battle through their platoon disadvantage and punish those southpaws.

Defense

They are very strong up the middle with Yamaguchi and Bobke in the infield and Stanley in the outfield. All three of them perform as elite defenders at their positions. They're average at the infield corners, below average in field field with Halime but good in right field with Clark. Berrios is a solid defensive catcher, and won't hurt them in terms of steals allowed or errors. I also like utility infielder Jack Glasscock. There's a lot to like here defensively and I would have to say that overall this group helps the pitching staff out and saves some runs this season.

Outlook

There are a few interesting young players in the Hawaii system. Most notable are the aformentioned first baseman Garnier, starters Luke Mayfield and Mike Quinn, and reliever Gustavo Lopez. There isn't anybody there that can really step in and contribute this season, but I think Garnier could be ready for 2011 and perhaps Mayfield as well with a good season of development. It's certainly not an awesome farm (currently ranked 21st) but there are some solid supporting pieces here. As far as the big-league roster goes there are some age concerns but they still have a number of key players who are 30 or younger.

Prediction

This club has a strong rotation with a real stud #1 pitcher at the top. They've got a good bullpen with a legitimate top-shelf closer. They've got an offense with a variety of weapons. There are not really a lot of holes here. I would say their biggest weakness is their lineup against lefties, and it should still be decent.

I think that we'll see Hawaii climb back to the top of the Pacific this season. I would say they underachieved to a degree in 2009, and they also definitely missed the presence of Seddon in their rotation. Vancouver meanwhile, seems to be teetering on the brink of rebuilding. They are still a talented team, and I would expect that they will battle the Tropics all season. But I think the race will be very close for that JLP crown this year and I'm picking Hawaii to come out on top.

95-67, 1st Place Pacific Division.