Atlantic City 2009 Season Prospective

[agrudez]

Lineup:
1. SHB CF Milt Linares, Jr., projection: .35 OBP/.78 OPS
After a bit of a down year offensively (84 OPS+) in his rookie year, most scouts and pundits agree that Linares, Jr. is just TOO good to not improve upon his numbers this season. While he won’t ever wow with his power, there is no way a switch-hitter with elite speed and above average contact will repeat a sub .300 OBP performance. Despite his struggles with the bat, the 20 year old rookie provided elite defense in CF that kept his WAR a positive (0.5) for the Gamblers last season.

2. SHB 2B Eric Martin, projection: .38 OBP/.78 OPS
Martin may never wow anyone with the more advanced batting metrics (with a career 108 OPS+), but few in the league put the ball in play and work the count as well as Martin. As the absolute definition of a 2-hole hitter, Martin also provides an elite glove to combine for one of, if not THE, best defensive middle infields in the league, which has helped him post WARs of 3.1, 3.5 and 5.3 in his first 3 seasons in the league thus far.

3. RHB LF Valentin Lugo, projection: .38 OBP/.85 OPS
Yet another young OBP stud with elite speed. Placed here in the lineup, the combination of Martin, Linares, Jr. and Lugo will be a gamut of blazing speed on the base paths and would represent at least one threat on the diamond every single time through the 3 with the potential for more. Opposing catcher’s will have nightmares about this top 3.

4. LHB 3B Ashton Fontenot, projection: .4 OBP/.85 OPS
Acquired last season in a blockbuster that saw 2 top prospects leave the AC system, Fontenot did not disappoint as he helped carry the Gamblers to the playoffs last season with a 128 OPS+ and 2.5 WAR (in 236 games) post-trade last season. Heading into ’09, Fontenot will once again factor as one of, if not THE, most important piece(s) of the AC lineup.

5. LHB RF Bob Goodwin, projection: .37 OBP/.9 OPS
There is no doubt of Goodwin’s status as one of the best young left-handed sluggers in the game and with OBP machines like Martin, Fontenot and Lugo in front of him I think he could plausibly challenge for the top of the RBI leader board next season.

6. RHB 1B Steve Williams, projection: .33 OBP/.75 OPS
Though one of the best defensive 1B in the league, Williams has been a woeful disappointment with the bat for his position and would be best served transitioning to a position that would value his range (de-value his bat) a bit more. That said, the young right-hander looks poised to reprise his role at 1B from the last 2 seasons prior where he put up 107 and 85 OPS+’s (and 2.6 and 0.3 WARs) respectively.

7. RHB SS Melvin Lopez, projection: .33 OBP/.72 OPS
A long-standing staple in the AC infield with a glove so good that his bat barely matters, Lopez projects as a bankable 2ish WAR each season despite a career sub 100 (92) OPS+.

8. RHB DH Gerald Mason, projection: .3 OBP/.7 OPS
I struggled to find a good DH option, but finally settled on a not-so-good one in Mason. He was the Gambler’s starting 3B prior to the acquisition of Fontenot and posted a 88 OPS+ in 493 games last season which gave him the edge over the rest of AC’s underwhelming bench.

9. RHB C Bob Gibson, projection: .280 OBP/640 OPS
The grizzled AC veteran will return in ’09 to reprise his role behind the plate for the Gamblers. In 139 games last season the 30 year old posted a 67 OPS+ and -0.4 WAR (both close his career marks) yet still represents the best option to backstop AC this season. Potential relief to the sub-mediocrity of AC’s C position could come this season; however, with some timely late development by 27 year old Stan Brennen whom would represent a downgrade defensively by Gibson, but could be a tangible boon offensively if he can round out his game a bit more.

Rotation:
1. LHP Jared Dorsey, projection: 4.2 ERA/1.55 WHIP
The Gambler’s ace had a tough seasons last year (85 ERA+) after a strong campaign the season prior (112 ERA+) in his sophomore season, but the heat-tossing Southpaw should look for a bounce back year as the anchor to the AC rotation, particularly with the defense his GM has assembled behind him. As always; however, walks (which he was 2nd and 3rd in the league in giving up in ’07 and ’08 respectively) will continue to be his (and his WHIP’s) bane.

2. RHP Chris Rowe, projection: 4.8 ERA/1.55 WHIP
A type A FA acquisition this past offseason, Rowe brings a veteran presence to an otherwise young (and piece-meal) rotation. In the past 3 seasons, Rowe has been very up and down (93 ERA+, 79 ERA+ and 100 ERA+ in ’06, ’07 and ’08 respectively), but the Gamblers will need the 35 year old to buck this trend now that he no longer has to worry about rain delays every other game in SEA.

3. RHP Ira Arthur, projection: 5.2 ERA/1.5 WHIP
Acquired this offseason in a trade from New Orlenas, Arthur spent last season in AAA Havana where he posted a 3.33 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. With the rotation struggles that AC has, Arthur will surely get his chance to stick in the big leagues this season.

4. RHP Aaron Miller, projection: 5.4 ERA/1.45 WHIP
As a mainstay in AC’s rotation thus far in his young career, Miller has posted ERA+’s of 79, 92 and 84 in the past 3 seasons. Nothing suggests he will get any closer to the ‘average’ mark of 100 this upcoming season.

5. RHP Richard Taylor, projection: 5.4 ERA/1.45 WHIP
Last season Taylor pitched well for AC out of the ‘pen (2.7 ERA in 70 IP) and the year prior he pitched well in AAA (2.47 ERA in 26 starts) so SURELY he can’t be any worse than Miller… can he?

Bullpen:
1. LHP Joe Miller, projection: 4 ERA/1.4 WHIP
Coming off a strong year last season (129 ERA+), Miller will need to avoid the type of slump he went through in ’07 (92 ERA+) after a strong ’06 (134 ERA+) as he is the only piece of the Gamblers’ bullpen that can pitch reasonably well late in a game.

2. Honestly… who knows?
Their bullpen seems to be in a competition for their rotation as to who can give up the most runs this season and despite the fact that the bullpen will pitch less innings (though not as many as you may think, if their starters get pulled as early as their track records suggest they should) they may actually make a case to win, too.

Overview:
Offensively, one through 5, I don’t think there is a better lineup in the league. I took some liberties with my ordering to get the 3 speed demons (Linares, Jr., Martin and Lugo) as well as the 3 OBP machines (Martin, Lugo and Fontenot) next to one another with the big clean-up piece right behind, but truly any combination of those 5 will result in A LOT of runs (every one of which they will need with their pitching). The back of the lineup is very raw; however, and the bench is borderline non-existent, so there is a lot of hope going into the year that the top 5 stays healthy – or else it could be a long season offensively despite their talent.

Defensively, you would be hard pressed to find a better team in the league. Their up the middle combination of Lopez, Martin and Linares, Jr. is as close to a vacuum as a team can get and the less important positions are stronger than most as well with 2 strong defensive corner OFers (Goodwin and Lugo), a strong defensive 3B (Fontenot) and a GG caliber 1B that could play SS and not look out of place (Williams).

Pitching wise, as good as their offense and defense is, is as bad as their pitching is. The only true talent in their rotation (Dorsey) puts up a walk-rate that only a mother could love (5.8 BB/9 in his career) and the rest of it is comprised of 5th/6th starters and other than Miller in their bullpen (who still only has a career 104 ERA+) they don’t have a single arm worth mentioning.

Projection: Everything in my being tells me that this is a sub-.500 squad with their pitching staff, but their offense and defense were obviously good enough to buoy them into the playoffs last season and to land them above .500 in two straight seasons, so who am I to argue with facts? A such, I’ll project another slightly above .500 season for the Gamblers at 84-78… whether or not that is good enough for a playoff spot; however, is anyone’s guess.

[trmmilwwi]

nice writeup! Lotsa offense... pitching not so much. I love the youth in the top half of the order... wowsers.

[7teen]

Fontenot's contract.

[Al-Hoot]

Fontenot's contract.

Aaron Weiner did that as a deliberate backloaded contract; he even said that he had no intention of exercising the team option years on it.
baseballretrospective.com/MBBA/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=4370&start=20#p24306

[Fat Nige]

Good write up You missed my ace pitcher (Dave Crocker) out of the rotation though.

I agree with most of your thoughts although I've never been that good at analysing the stats like you, I wasn't brought up on baseball analysis but I'm slowly learning thanks to pieces like yours. I'm not too happy with Lugo's defence though so Claude Arcimboldo grabs the RF spot, his 42 homers and 148 RBI last year was also quite useful

I was going to work on your piece today but time ran out (remember I'm five hours ahead of Eastern) and with a busy weekend I'll roll it out Monday

[agrudez]

Jeeze... how did I miss those two...

Ball. Dropped.