The Kraken have been in stall mode ever since the Manny Aguilar incident. The team had a bright future when they took first place in the FL Atlantic division in 2003 with a 92-70 record. Since Manny’s injury the team has been very consistent. Consistently bad. The last 5 years they have won 69, 69, 63, 67 and 69 games respectively and have finished 3rd in the FL ATL every year. Only Atlantic City and Montreal have kept the Kraken out of the cellar. Carolina’s team bavg has actually risen the last few seasons and sat at .265 last season (they had a team record low of .247 in 2006). The bad news is that their pitching and defense have continued to take a turn for the worse as their team ERA has risen from 3.77 in 2003 to a 6 year high of 4.91 in 2008. Likewise their babip rose from .299 in 2003 to a 6 year high of .324 in 2008.
Critical decisions;
Kraken management continues to make a push with veteran players in hopes of assembling the right kit of parts to overtake Buffalo or Atlantic City. It may be the right move with Montreal assembling some awesome young talent and ATC winning the division at 82-80 last season. However, losing players like Allen Kennedy hurts long term. While some great players were acquired some parts have already been lost (Jay Lee signing with Marquette).
Looking ahead 2009
3 key questions
1. Can Will “Dash” Craig become a consistent starter being that showed great potential in 2007 (3.63 ERA) and had a large amount of work in 2008 (35 starts).
2. Will there be enough talent with some platoon situations in order to scratch out a few wins more than would be expected?
3. Will uber prospect Christopher Lee see a September callup? He is nowhere near ready skill wise but he has a lot of potential and did very well in his late season stint in AAA Dodge City. I expect he’ll get a few weeks of atbats at the tail end of 2009.
Can expect to play better
C Rafael Avila was brought in 2 seasons ago and he has not been his normal self since arriving in Carolina. I expect him to rebound a bit this year with some of the veteran talent that Carolina has assembled and he could flourish at the top part of the order. Look for his .285 avg to morph into the .315 range and for more walks than strikeouts.
Can expect to play worse
1B Lance Pere came over from Omaha midway through the 2008 season and hit .320 in Carolina while belting 13 homers. Great numbers in only 300 or so atbats. Look for his age to catch up to him a bit and for him to settle in to 15 or so homers and a .280 average. With multiple 1B on the squad it isn’t out of the equation that we may find Pere riding the bench in some situations.
Projected batting order
1.
CF Bailey Lowe - Lowe had his first full season in the bigs last year when he played in 120 games and totaled 455 atbats to go along with a .270 bavg and .360 obp. His WAR is where it is at though as he plays a stellar CF having a +19.1 ZR last year. Look for Lowe to be the piston that drives the team in 2009.
2.
C Rafael Avila – Avila was Carolina’s huge FA signing a few offseasons ago and through 2 years in his new digs he has underwhelmed a bit. He had always produced above .300 avg seasons with more walks than strikeouts and had WARs in the 4-7 range. In Carolina he has hit around .285 with WARs of 2.2 and 2.0. Look for Avila to bounce back a bit and produce closer to his pre-Kraken days. Although I am still not sure that he is worth the coin it took to land him..
3.
1B Lance Pere - Pere came over via trade with Omaha late last season and is the best fielding option at 1B for Carolina. He has decent power and contact and can be counted on for close to a .300 average and about 15 homers. He has had an OBP above .400 since 2003 so he can be a decent top of the order type guy in Carolina. At 38 years old his age is catching up with him so he may be a late season trade candidate with prospect Millard Joseph waiting in the wings.
4.
DH Hector Ruiz – Ruiz is a free swinging 1B who is better suited to the DH slot. He will hit a below average amount of homers for a DH but he really doesn’t have another slot in the lineup. He was brought over via trade with Valencia at the start of the 2008 campaign and had career lows, or near anyways, in HR’s and avg. Look for Ruiz to rebound in his second season in Carolina. Note: I have a soft spot in my heart for this guy since he is an ex-Marquette Sun (actually Austin Riverbat).
5.
LF Gerardo Cutitta – Gerardo is somewhat of a lost cause in Carolina. He was signed off of waivers in mid 2008 and was later signed to a 3 year FA contract that total $8.67mil. That’s all well and fine but the dude is 37 years old and isn’t named Rafeal Rodriguez. Cutitta is a prime candidate to be put on the trading block for teams that may need batting help at the trade deadline. He’s ok at the plate but a huge liability in LF.
6.
3B Marvin Stupples – Stupples was the prize free agent signing of the 2007-2008 offseason for Carolina and he was paid handsomely with a 6 year, $60+mil deal. After playing 6 seasons in Paris it was unknown what Stupples would do against Monty pitchers. He was ok, but not great. In only 340 atbats he was able to hit .259 with a WAR of 0.8. In the field he held his own but was slightly below average (-2.4ZR and .982EFF). I imagine not what Carolina had in mind for the money they are paying him.
7.
SS Kenji Masaki – Masaki was acquired via trade with Omaha when Kennedy was shipped out and he is a site for sore eyes in Carolina. Most of the other positions have band aid solutions in the field but Masaki is the real deal at SS. He has the best arm in the league and can gobble up anything that comes near him. He is also expected to hit about .300 on the season and drive in around 65 runs while scoring around 100 himself. He may be further up in the batting order but I dropped him down because of his age and d3eclining baserunning skills. If he is coupled with Lowe and Avila at the top of the order it could be lethal.
8.
2B Duane Burgess – Burgess has some great talent but it is not yet decided whether it will all come together or not for this young 25 year old infielder. He can play 3B and SS but due to his arm strength 2B is the likely slot for this guy. He has great speed and some decent power that doesn’t come easy to find at 2B. He’ll never hit for a high average but if you can overlook that Burgess could get quite a few atbats at 2B.
9.
RF Buck Hooper - Buck has been hanging onto his big league career as of late and may just make it another season. He’s not horrible in RF (+0.4ZR and 1.002EFF) but he can only be expected to take 250 or so atbats at a .265 clip. Not gangbusters for a RF in this league. Too bad RF prospect Mike Forrest isn’t quite ready yet.
Rotation
SP Will “Dash” Craig – Dash became a workhorse for Carolina in his 4th full season for the Kraken. He earned career highs with 35 starts and 200 IP and went 11-12 with a WAR of 2.0. Look for a slightly better season out of Dash this year as he continues to move up towards the top of the starting rotation.
SP Howard Feldmann was acquired from Las Vegas in a trade prior to the 2008 season and had a great start going 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA until he suffered an injury that would cut his season short. Feldman has been a journeyman type of pitcher who has the tools but has never quite put it all together. He’ll need to step up his game and continue the success he had early last season for the Kraken to do well this season.
SP Jesus Silva – Silva came over via trade with Marquette during the 2008 season. The good news is that Carolina basically acquired Silva for a bag of peanuts. The bad news is that they may want the bag of peanuts back as Silva found himself out of the starting rotation by seasons end after posting a 6.30 ERA in 8 starts for the Kraken. Methinks he can rebound a little bit this year but we’ll see.
SP Jesus Ramos – “the other Jesus” has all of the tools to be a good starting pitcher. He just hasn’t done it yet. He has a career 80-90 record with a 5.09 career ERA. He eats a lot of innings and is a reliable bottom of the rotation starter. Signed to a 3 year 20 mil deal during the 2007/2008 offseason Ramos is another higher priced veteran on the team.
SP Lloyd Reese – Reese is a long time Kraken who has been asked to start games more and more as of late. He has a great stamina but has average pitches and really has been a spot starter type. Although he did go 16-11 with a 3.30 ERA in 2006. Reese definitely has ability if used in the right situations.
Closer
CL Jonathan “Snuffy” Sorensen – This kid is the real deal. Drafted 6th overall on 2005 by Carolina Sorensen is entering his 3rd full season as the closer and should occupy this position for the next decade or more. He throws 2 great pitches, although both are offspeed, has great control and command and can throw the ball 99 mph. This guy should continue to improve and will be a great closer for years to come.
Overall prediction for 2009 – 75-87, 3rd place in the FL Atlantic. If the pitching comes around they can do a bit better.
