GM: Ben Teague
Manager: Rip Torn (9th year with Carolina)
Last Year: 67-95, 3rd place Frick League Atlantic Division
Additions: SP Lee Dedeaux (free agent, LV), SP Jesus Ramos (free agent, SEA), 1B Marvin Stupples (free agent, PAR-EBA), SP Howard Feldmann (trade, LV), 1B Jason Vanega (trade. LV), SS Francisco Cruz (trade, LV), 1B/DH Hector Ruiz (trade. VAL).
Subtractions: IF Cody Chamberland (free agency), RP Huub Bookelman (trade, LV), 1B Larry Wilkes (trade, LV), P Gary McCabe (waivers, MTL), RP Ron Bly (trade, VAL), P Duane King (waivers, PHX), 3B Danny Cornett (waivers, MTL).
The Curse:
2003 was the last year Carolina has had more than 71 wins. They went 92-70 and made the playoffs. Their future looked bright. Mostly, because they had the pre-eminent star in the MBBA= Manuel Aguilar. The slugging left fielder was coming off perhaps the greatest offensive season in MBBA history (certainly in the "modern era", that is since 1995). He batted a staggering .413, with 46 doubles, 5 triples, 50 homers, 159 RBI, 137 runs, 56 walks, and a mindboggling 19 strikeouts. That's NOT a typo. .413/.457/.749/1.206. Again, NOT a typo. 212 OPS+. 141.0 VORP. A 13.7 WAR, incredible. Carolina couldn't help but be optimistic about the future. They came to Spring Training 2004 feeling good about their chances. When you have a guy going into his age 27 season coming off a season like that it's hard not to feel good about your chances. Then, the unthinkable. ON March 24, 2004 Aguilar suffered an injury in a spring training game. Doctors announced it was a torn labrum, and his career was over. Just like that. It'd be hard to write a better recap than the one Ben himself wrote. He was also able to point out that Aguilar's VORP in 2003 exceeded that of several TEAMS. Losing a player like this to injury is something that most of us have never experienced. I know firsthand that Ben was so saddened by the loss of his start that he thought of quitting more than once. Who could blame him? And ever since, the Kraken have seemed cursed. What other explanation is there for their struggles. By all accounts, Ben is one of the most active GM's in our universe. He's also proven more than once he's one of the most analytical. For some reason, he's struggled to find success and thus has torn down and started over a couple times. Moving into the 2008 season, it seems he's doing it again. And this time, I think he's on the right track.
The Big Lesson That Has Been Learned:
Prospects will break your heart. Without question. If you want to dream on prospects, you'll often come up disappointed. This offseason, Ben went in a different direction with his additions and picked up some veterans to fill holes on his active roster. I feel he's in a winnable division and these moves were very wise. Smart GM's know when and how to adapt to what is going on around them. Montreal is in a total rebuild. They were the dominant team in the Frick Atlantic for a long time. Buffalo is good but aging. Atlantic City is beginning to emerge. This division is wide open. Carolina needs to break the curse and the only thing that will do that is winning. Their moves will help give them a fighting chance....although there are still some lessons to be learned.
Why does Defense continue to be so undervalued?
So many GM's in this league undervalue defense. Recently, Ben posted one of the better statistical studies we've had in a while when he looked at pitching results. It can be tied to defense SO much. Many won't see this or even think of it. Fans are entertained by offense and sometimes GM's fall into that trap as well. I know that Ben wanted Francisco Cruz from me to play shortstop. He'll get some decent offense out of that, but ultimately Cruz will be a negative defender there and cost his team wins. A better move would be to play Cruz at 2B where he'd be a positive defender, find a cheap defensive shortstop (like Xu Ren Yue, who they signed as a cheap free agent, for example) and punt the offense. The net gain will be so much more. Building a strong up the middle defense is the first key to building a successful pitching staff, especially when you pair your strong defense with a lot of groundball pitchers.
Key to the Offense:
Marvin Stupples will be an interesting sign. Carolina gave him $61 million over 6 years to help their offense. He'd settled in as an .850 OPS guy in Europe, which probably makes him about a .775 OPS guy in the MBBA. That's a lot of coin for that production. It seems Ben has him batting third as well, but only against RHP because he's a straight platoon guy. Sadly, they would probably get similar OPS production in a platoon role from Vanega, acquired from Vegas in a trade. It might be wise to play Stupples at third base against RHP and put Vanega at first base. I also would drop him in the order a bit. They currently have three straight left handed hitters batting 3-4-5 in their vs RHP lineup. They could break that up by batting Bailey Lowe (L) first, Cruz (R) second (great speed and bunting skills, an ideal #2 batter), Ruiz (L) third (he's the best hitter), Bob Grant (R) fourth, and Rafael Avila (L) fifth.
Key to the Pitching Staff:
Allen "Ghost Runner" Kennedy was the Kraken's 1st round pick (4th overall) last year. They currently have him listed as their #1 starter. I wouldn't have him in the majors yet. He's not ready. They have a more than capable replacement sitting in the bullpen in veteran Robert Walton, who would thrive with the middle defense I talked about earlier (72% GB rating). Give Kennedy a chance to develop a little bit more in AAA. Don't wreck your prospects by bringing them up too soon.
Free talent is your friend:
1. You need more power in your lineup. While I wouldn't completely bench Buck Hooper because he plays good defense and has some gap power, there is a free solution to maybe split time with Hooper on the free agent market: Clifford "Method Man" Smith. He has the power you need. Not going to hit more than .220/.230, but might slug .450 and that's something you need. He couldn't possibly cost you much.
Prediction:
Carolina has as good a chance as any to break the curse this year and finish above .500. If I'm Carolina, I'm cleaning out my system and making trades to get a top of the rotation starter and a middle of the order right fielder and going for the division title now. I'm also finding a top notch defensive shortstop immediately and moving Cruz to 2B. Your pitchers will love you. Do this and you contend for the playoffs.
One more thing:
Manuel Aguilar is currently your rookie hitting coach. Maybe getting him back to the majors will help break the curse. Did you know about this PP Reward:
Off Topic
Improve Personnel
– GMs may improve the rating in any category of any personnel within their organization.
- Will cost 20 PP to improve one category by 10 points on the internal scale.
– GMs may improve the rating in any category of any personnel within their organization.
- Will cost 20 PP to improve one category by 10 points on the internal scale.
