Johnson Conference Midwest Division '08 Season Outlook

[agrudez]

Madison Wolves: ’07 stats: 102-60, +2 PYTH, .817 OPS, 1.31 WHIP, 943 RF/731 RA (+212 diff)
Last year’s division winners had a difficult offseason as they watched 2 key contributors from last year’s squad not only leave Madison, but leave the league as a whole - leaving them with no compensatory draft picks in their wake – as 1B Bolt Vanderhugen (3.5 average WAR) and C John Behnke (2.5 average WAR) went to the EBA. To make up for their departures; however, the Wolves became an active participant on the FA market, acquiring 3B Robb Wells (from rival Phoneix), 1B’s Juan Longoria and Jason Wortman (whom are expected to platoon to replace Vanderhugen), C Ray Crabb (whom is expected to replace Behnke and RP Freddy Alonso.

Despite all of these moves; however, their net WAR is still looked at by most as a negative on the offseason – compounding issues is mid-rotation starter Johnny Ginnbeing out for the first half of the season at least. The good news, though, that despite Madison’s step back, Phoneix had a quiet offseason and did nothing to attempt to take advantage of their opportunity to bridge the gap between the clubs.

’08 Prediction: 94-68 PYTH, .8 OPS, 1.31 WHIP, 880 RF/730 RA (+150 diff)

Phoenix Talons: ’07 stats: 93-69, +2 PYTH, .771 OPS, 1.31 WHIP, 775 RF/679 RA (+94 diff)
Seemingly content with playing second fiddle to Madison last season, Phoenix stood pat this offseason with no trades and only organizational depth signings while losing last year’s starting 3B (to the Wolves, no less) Robb Wells, whom has provided Phoenix with steady, yet unremarkable WAR production throughout his career until last season in which he posted a -0.9. His likely replacement candidate going into ST is Lindsey Jacinto whom has out produced him in WAR in the short term (including a 3.5 point swing last season). With little movement there is no reason to expect much fluctuation either up or down from last year’s success.

’08 Prediction: 90-72 PYTH, .775 OPS, 1.31 WHIP, 780 RF/680 RA (+100 diff)

Omaha Barnstormers: ’07 stats: 73-89, +5 PYTH, .738 OPS, 1.54 WHIP, 746 RF/888 RA (-142 diff)
By all accounts (run differential and Pythagorean record) Omaha was the worst team in the division in ’07 despite their +8 games in the standings over Chicago – with possibly the worst pitching staff league wide, giving up an astonishing 888 runs with a team WHIP of 1.54. It was clear, then, what Omaha’s focus would be during the offseason as they picked up 3 starting pitchers: Luis Luna, Coy Davis and Gary Lammond to supplement their rotation.

With staff ace Vicente Martinez on the DL for at least the first 1.5 months of the season and future HOF’er Jay Lee getting up there in age, these 3 will be counted on heavily; however, while they will certainly add credibility to the Barnstormers’ pitching staff, they alone will likely not be enough to bolster a team that has a fully returning, largely mediocre offense (with the one exception being rookie Miguel Toro at the new DH slot) and mostly returning, largely subpar bullpen (minus Kenneth Secor whom was included in the Luna deal and, recently, saw his career come to an end).

’08 Prediction: 76-86 PYTH, .745 OPS, 1.48 WHIP, 750 RF/825 RA (-75 diff)

Chicago Black Sox: ’07 stats: 65-97, -7 PYTH, .76 OPS, 1.49 WHIP, 745 RF/842 RA (-97 diff)
Chicago played better than their record suggested in ’07, but still not very well; however, they made some big splashes in the offseason on both the trade market (unloading some prospect pieces for ML talent) and the FA market to attempt to bring themselves up to respectability. On the trade market, they acquired 2 big names in 30 year old 3B John Wilkinson (3.5 WAR average), 30 year old CF Chris Neal (2.5 WAR) from Des Moines and Birmingham respectively. In FA, they lost 3B Jaime Lopez (0 WAR average) whom had been passed by Wilkinson regardless and DH/OF Charlie Scott (1.5 WAR average) while gaining the market’s arguably biggest prize, SP Joshua Noble (3.5 WAR average) with a monster 6 year/96M deal.

On paper, Chicago has taken a huge step forward with a net gain of 8 WAR to add to a Pythagorean win total of 72 last season, but adding a staff ace and 2 prime offensive pieces to the roster in one offseason does even more on the field than it does on paper, though, they still likely aren’t strong enough to contend with the division’s big players quite yet.
’08 Prediction: 84- 78 PYTH, .785 OPS, 1.44 WHIP, 770RF/820RA (-50 diff)

[trmmilwwi]

19 game improvement for Chicago... ballsy.

[agrudez]

19 game improvement for Chicago... ballsy.

It's only actually a 12 game improvement in Pythagorean record... and considering they picked up 2 good batters for the top/heart of the lineup and an ace pitcher without losing anyone from last year I don't feel that it is too big of a stretch.

And here I figured the 8 game (6 games from Pythagorean) decrease for Madison would be the one most questioned.

[recte44]

Everyone (including Chris) would admit that Madison has been on the downturn a bit lately. Still, hard to be on the downturn too much with Bopper/Cricket.

[kestu]

Thanks for the kind words - 84 wins seems a bit agressive to me - I think if we get there it's going to be due to guys like Rivera, Nevel, Brooks, Lavigne and Rodriguez providing more than I'm expecting this year. Not out of the question, but I think we have another year of sub 80 wins and then we can hopefully make a real move next season.

[recte44]

Chicago could be the next Long Beach soon enough.

[7teen]

Madison is definitely beginning its downward trend. If not for Puckett and Kengos, we'd be looking at the bottom of the division opposed to the top. The days of the Madison juggernaut are long gone. Having Jessie Wright, John Rasmussen, and Tyree Wills in the rotation along with the sluggers in my lineup set up for a huge dynasty. The pitching staff is now Rasmussen and a bunch of throw in arms while the powerful offense is being held together by Puckett and Kengos.

The trades I made when Wright and Wills departed aren't going to work out liked I had hoped. Lumps to the aces I got are going to prevent me from keeping the trend of division titles alive. I think my window of division crowns is down to just a couple left. Assuming I can win it this season at all....

[recte44]

Martin actually looks decent, though. I don't think you miss a beat with him replacing Ginn.

[nerfHerder]

I made all of my moves at the break last season. No need to add players unless they are better than what you have. We'll see what happens. I thought last year might be the year that Madison falls, but they just flat out rake. Can't wait to get started.