California '07 Offseason Retrospective and '08 Outlook

[agrudez]

In their second season removed from a .580 winning percentage put in an even more dismal performance than the year prior (.389) finishing the season with a .247 winning percentage. Fans vented their frustration the only way they could – by refusing to come to games, as gate attendance dropped to 1.8M, a 46% drop from the year prior (3.3M) and a 54% drop from ’05 (3.9M). It was clear that to win the trust of the fanbase back the California management needed to make some splashes in the offseason, and with a payroll 31M under the external MBBA player salary cap in ’07 money was no object, as they say (even though the team operated at a reported 7M in the red in ’07).

2007 Offseason Outlook
Out:
SS Byung-Ryu Poc (FA) – The veteran starting SS had set expectations far too high during his first two years in California in ’04/’05 in which he set career marks (.780/.837 OPS and 4/5.4 WAR). In ’06 he put up a .669 OPS and .5 WAR in a reduced role and last season he barely made it over the .600 OPS mark and recorded the first negative WAR (-0.7) in his career, so it is no wonder why it was easy for management to walk away from him in FA.

SP Coy Davis (trade) – A much maligned pitcher whom never seemed to supplant himself as a fan favorite despite his back to back solid seasons in California (4.46/4.36 ERA) in ’06 and ’07. Control issues bloated his WHIP over both seasons, but a >9 K:9 and the ability to keep the ball in the park helped him put up an aggregate 1 WAR over those 2 seasons regardless at the back of the rotation.

In:
OF Kuan Liao (FA) – A late FA signing (lasting until just a few days before pitchers and catchers report), Liao reportedly scared most suitors off with his contract demands (particularly coming off a season lost to PCS); however, as time wound down he lowered his years desired (down to 3) and took the money California offered (9.4M). Many wonder if that wasn’t a bit steep, but Liao has been a very productive player in his career despite himself – posting a career .874 OPS and 4 seasons at or above 3 WAR (including a 5.4 WAR in ’03).

IF Silvio Garcia (FA) – After losing Poc it is no surprise that California targeted an infielder in FA; however, Garcia profiles as more a 3B than a SS. Still, he is productive with the bat (.794 career OPS) and is coming off a career year that saw him reach 3.5 WAR (after multiple seasons of negative). It is obviously California’s hope that, for 5M for the next 3 seasons, last year was not an aberration.

OF/DH Charlie Scott (FA) – A solid, under the radar signing by California for a solid candidate for the newly formed DH slot. For 1.5M next season, California may have gotten a steal if he plays to his career numbers (.852 OPS and 1.5ish WAR).

IF Armando Rosales (trade) – Acquired in the trade that sent Davis the other way, Rosales hit .738 OPS in AAA last season from the 3B slot and projects to be little more than organizational filler for next season, certainly, and even beyond.

SP Jose Perez (trade) – The other piece in the Davis deal, Perez has a career 5.27 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 3 AAA seasons and posted a 6.23 ERA and 1.83 WHIP n 12 starts in the majors last season after being unable to crack one of the weakest rotations in the league out of camp.

RP Corey Hill (Rule 5) – Seemed to finally put it together last season as he posted a 1.14 WHIP and 2.61 ERA at age 28 in AAA last year (after posting a 4.21 ERA and 1.52 WHIP the season before) – should find a spot in California’s pen out of camp.

Overview:
As has been stated, with money available and a drastic need to excite the fanbase (before last year’s attendance aberration became a trend), it is no surprise that California is coming out of this offseason as an improved team – though, after posting 40 wins last season, it may be physically impossible to get worse.
The only loss coming out was Davis (0.5 average WAR), but California managed to throw big money at second and third tier FAs, Liao (2.92 average WAR), Garcia (0.225 average WAR) and Scott (1.3 average WAR) for a projected net of 3.945 WAR. Clearly, a 44 win season will not be any more acceptable than a 40 win season was to the fan base; however, it is California’s hope that the net gain of wins through the offseason will not be the only thing positively influencing their ’08 campaign.
23 year old SS Bartolo Esquivel (.900 OPS in AAA, .662 OPS in ML last season), for instance, will bring his elite glove to the majors to fill the void left at SS, though

2008 Season Outlook
Pitching
California seemingly attempted to compete for the worst rotation in league history last season and did nothing but degrade it by moving out “staff ace” (by default, as he was their only positive WAR) Coy Davis in a trade early on in the offseason. Going into ’08 the rotation is going to be comprised of 5 guys whom, in full disclosure, should probably be in AAA – regardless of who they actually end up being.

The bullpen can only be described as an amalgamation of sub-mediocrity. Every single warm body in the ‘pen could easily be relegated to LR or AAA on most teams in the league; however, Rule 5 draftee Corey Hill will likely have the inside track (and could plausibly be the only non-negative WAR in the entire ‘pen) on the closer position after his aforementioned solid AAA campaign last season.

Lineup:
C – Antonio Gonzalezand his career .708 OPS and solid glove reprises his role as the starter, likely hitting at the back of the lineup after posting a .678 OPS and even WAR last season.

IF – With the addition of Garcia and progression of Esquivel, it may be time for a shakeup in the infield to solidify the defense. With clearly the best glove on the roster, it would be a mistake to not let rookie Esquivel man SS, as even if his OPS hovers around a .650 OPS mark he should still turn an even WAR with great defense. The second best glove on the team, Jason Sherman, whom has primarily been the Crusader’s 3B through his career could easily slide his career .763 OPS over to 2B, where it would drastically increase his WAR from 0.2 in ’06 and 1.2 in ’07 – this would then open up newly acquired Garcia to play in his most natural position (3B) where his strong arm can be properly put to use. As the defensive odd man out, former 2B Dwight Ferriswould make the transition to 1B in an attempt to kick start the batting potential he has always had, but has failed to convert into consistent statistics. All in all, this formation would be an above average defensive one, albeit a below average offensive one, but would net a positive WAR from amongst the group (though Ferris will undoubtedly be a negative at 1B).

OF – The newly acquired Liao will likely slot into the LF role in the field and the cleanup role in the lineup. The other two slots are very much up in the air, but one would have to assume that, as the only one whom can truly play the position, Roy Warnerwill have the inside track for the CF position with the speedy Dae-ik Chonghaving the leg-up for RF heading into ST. Neither player overly impresses with the bat in their hands; however, if their defense can keep them hovering around a neutral WAR then this unit can still manage to be a positive to the team.

DH- Charlie Scott, whom is borderline inept in the field, should be the odds on favorite to win this newly formed role – and would represent a positive WAR from the heart of the lineup if he plays to his career stats.

Overview:
Defense – Overall average, but with borderline elite fielders at both SS and CF (though 2B is still a weakness) it has the potential to be a plus to the team… though they are going to be incredibly busy and may develop whiplash early on in the season.

Offense – The additions of Liao and Scott were much needed for the heart of the lineup, but they still do not have very much help from the rest of the supporting cast and will likely be a negative for the team.

Pitching - There isn’t much to say here… a CLEAR and GIANT negative for the team heading into ’08 - in all facets.

Predicton – Though they netted a small positive WAR in the offseason, California not only failed to add even a mediocre piece to their abysmal pitching staff and seem content to compete for the #1 overall draft selection this year – which is the only thing they will win all season.

[trmmilwwi]

Though they netted a small positive WAR in the offseason, California not only failed to add even a mediocre piece to their abysmal pitching staff and seem content to compete for the #1 overall draft selection this year – which is the only thing they will win all season.

Ouch! true... but ouch.

[wualumni]

Nice review - I think the game had us as a 12 WAR improvement this offseason so make that 52 wins thank you very much. LOL