Des Moines was intent on selling at last year's trade deadline despite remaining in the wild card hunt well into September. They eventually finished with a 77-85 record, allowing 800 runs while scoring 809. That run differential indicates the team was 5 wins unfavorable to the Pythagoras calculations. Perhaps their xW-xL of 76-86 helps explain Jessie's instinct to sell. Now lets run thru the 2060 lineup and pitching staff to see what we should expect.
Batters
The Kernels finished camp with a trio of catchers, any of which could realistically be their Opening Day starter. Cecil Clarke has good offensive ratings that haven't translated to the BBA and is a weak defender, but he's the only guy with real experience. Youngsters Masakado Matsunaga and Pablo Gonzáles are also in the picture. Matsunaga was an above average hitter in a September cup of coffee while Gonzales was just drafted last year. Like Clarke, these are bat-first players. I figure Matsunaga and Clarke will split time until one separates from the pack. If one or both of those players falter we'll see Gonzales. There's a wide range of potential outcomes here since any of these guys could post an .800+ OPS, but defense behind the plate is vital. I'll split the difference and project 1.5 WAR from this group. It will be imperative Jessie identifies the best one quickly.
I'm projecting Des Moines to include seven infielders on its roster. First base will be manned by young up-and-comer Ricardo Norman. Norman burst onto the scene in 2058 with 4.8 WAR and followed it up strongly in 2059 with 3.7 WAR, albeit in more PAs. Assuming another 3.5 WAR season seems safe. Occasionally, Norman will rest against southpaws and cede the position to right-handed Joris Rivière. Riviere made a favorable impression last season and 1.5 WAR seems like realistic production from him in part-time duty.
At second base the team has to run it back with Isat Kasturirangan after he hit .312 last season. Up until that point Kasturirangan had negative career WAR and I expect 2059 was a career year. The 33 year-old has to hit because he's a poor fit defensively anywhere other than first base. Expect Jessie to pull the plug early in the season and start mixing in Matthew Hewat. Hewat isn't very good either but at least he's average defensively. I project this position to contribute 0 WAR without any upgrades.
The shortstop position doesn't look any rosier than its middle infield counterpart. The team is committed to Miguel De La Cruz. The 34 year-old has all of 143 career ABs in the Brewster after spending a large chunk of his career in the GBC. De La Cruz's fatal flaw is only 7 range which no amount of doubles will overcome. Expect De la Cruz to also play at a replacement level.
Third base looks much stronger. The team re-signed Félix Parreno to a six year, $61M contract after he reached free agency. Parreno is a reliable 40 home run threat and patient enough to maintain an acceptable OBP despite low batting averages. With his average defense, Parreno should be in for another 4 WAR season. I'll also use this opportunity to cover their last infielder, Eugene Wolf. Wolf could enter the mix at second but his range is limited. He can be an elite defender at third spelling Parreno. His high batting average should allow him to contribute 0.5 WAR if the team doesn't play him out of position too often.
Carrying seven infielders means Des Moines only has room for five outfielders. Jessie may ultimately go with six outfielders and jettison one of the weak infielders since he has more upside in this group. I've hesitated to project them that way because so few of the outfielders have major league experience.
The Kernels can mix and match with hitters from each side of the plate in left field if they place veteran Andrew Wright on the active roster. The minor league signing is limited defensively at his ripe age of 37, but he can still run like crazy and hit home runs. On most days the lefty Wright will sit in favor of righty Kevin Thistle. Thistles been a .791 OPS bat in his career so far and hes' just 24 years old. He can field too. With slight growth from Thistle this position should produce 3 WAR.
Center field is where Des Moines rosters its superstar, Hector Cano Jr. The problem for Cano Jr. is durability because when he's on the field he's guaranteed to play plus defense and hit dingers. Unfortunately, there's no clear backup so we have to assume replacement-level production when Cano Jr. isn't on the field. I'll assume he plays 120 games and delivers 3.5 WAR.
Right field is also home to a youth movement and this time its 22 year-old Júlio Pérez. His 141 wRC+ as a rookie was impressive but his ratings indicate that's closer to his ceiling than his floor. Limited range means Perez must keep his OPS over .850 to be anything special. I'll project a slight sophomore slump and 2 WAR.
Des Moines looks to have a mostly full-time designated hitter in Keaton Guest after they gave him a two year guaranteed contract this offseason. The 35 year-old lefty has never received regular playing time but he does have a .359 career Brewster OBP and nice looking offensive ratings. Guest is less reliable against southpaw pitching which is a theme with some of these better hitters. Parreno and Thistle will have to carry them against left-handed pitchers.
Pitchers
Des Moines will be talented but largely unproven in their starting rotation. They do have some certainty in their Opening Day starter, presumed to be big free agency splash Steven Clayton. Clayton was a great pitcher in Nashville who reliably kept his FIP under 4.00. I project Clayton to act as a stabilizing force and mentor to their young pitchers while being worth 3.5 WAR.
I'm assuming the second starter then will be Tommy Akers once he returns from his March 15th injury. Akers has played 8 professional seasons from his early 20s struggles to becoming an ace and averaging over 3 WAR per year since he was 23. The injury concerns me enough that I'll stick with 3 WAR projected.
Middle of the rotation belongs to Dave Lachance. Lachance has terrific 8-6-6 ratings and its easy to be wowed by his 3.89 ERA in 2059. If you look under the hood, though, his 4.78 FIP portends more struggles. His 2058 season had a similar FIP and his ERA almost touched 6.00. I'll side with the ratings and assume the 26 year-old is ready to come into his own but I'm uncomfortable projecting anything better than a 4.25 FIP and about 2.5 WAR.
Next in the rotation is another righty, Alonso Amaya. The 24 year-old is a fully developed 5-6-5 rated pitcher whose given the team two decent seasons already. The scouts think Amaya is maxed out, but he was great in the minors and he's been learning on the job. I'll be optimistic here and say Amaya yields 2.5 WAR.
The final spot is another young pitcher, Ken Haworth. Haworth is a former top prospect who's been slow to develop. Indeed, he still needs another point in stuff and movement to reach his full potential but the time is now after he debuted with the Kernels in 2059. In just four starts he contributed zero WAR. I'll assume some growth but a 6-5-6 starter will get bitten consistently by the longball. Expect 1 WAR.
If Akers rehabs his starts might go to Javier Duarte. Duarte would be making his debut at just 21 years old. Duarte gives Des Moines a left-handed starter and some upside potential. He had a killer 2059 season in AA but his ratings need to max out. The Kernels should be content if he provides them with 1 WAR if given regular duty.
There are a lot more arms in the Des Moines Kernel bullpen worth mentioning than normal. It starts with stopper Garth Dobbs who could probably out pitch a couple of their starters but will be a weapon as a reliever. Righties You-cheng Hang and Adrian Kraft will setup Dobbs and should remain effective in their mid-30s. Tim Gibbs and Ron Madden have potential in middle relief. Mike Young and his 9 stuff is one of the more important pitchers because other than journeyman swing guy Benno Steeneveld he's the only other lefty on the staff. I'll project 4.5 WAR from the above average bullpen.
Kurt's Prediction: 81-81
Des Moines should be a tough team to beat when Clayton, Akers, Lachance, or Amaya is on the mound against an opposing right-handed pitcher. Their left-handed skewed offense should get them in the lead and their bullpen will close out most games. However, I think they'll play less than .500 ball against lefties and struggle to contain opposing lefties. Haworth and Duarte both have some projected ceiling but at least one of them is going to struggle and potentially give away a lot of games from their rotation.
As far as reinforcements go, they have Duarte plus a pair of potent prospects in starting pitcher Truman Burgess and 2059 draft pick Alonso Flinn. Burgess already has excellent stuff and good movement but he won't be an effective BBA pitcher until he improves his 4 control. At 23 years old, that could certainly happen this season at AAA. Flinn is still a teenager and unlikely to get the call in 2060. That's partly because there's a long line of useful but mediocre outfield bats in reserve in Manuel Márquez, Jonathan Marshall, Pedro Gómez, and Juan Ramírez. Juan Ramírez in particular should join the roster at some point since he's right-handed, but I note he's on the trade block and was worth -0.6 WAR in 2059.
