2057 Rockville Pikemen

[Bob Breum]

The Rockville Pikemen have finished with between 73 and 78 wins over each of the last three seasons. Last season, they missed .500 by just three games. Their team ERA improved last season to 4.40, about half a run better than the two previous seasons.

POSITION PLAYERS

It is the Rockville offense that is holding them back. Last season, only three position players posted over two WAR, which is the FanGraphs benchmark for a solid regular. From a positional standpoint, they only managed to earn over two WAR at a single position, shortstop. The entire offensive roster posted a total of only 6.3 WAR. Some teams have multiple players earning more than that. One player managed to accrue negative two WAR, starting 138 games for the Pikemen.

CATCHER
Starting with catcher, let’s examine their roster. Last season’s catcher group posted -0.4 WAR. It looks like they’ll begin the season with Michael Smith behind the plate. He saw limited action over the last two seasons, mostly playing in AAA, but Burton and Guldenmond from last season are gone, clearing the way for Smith. Smith has adequate receiving skills, scoring 7 in catcher ability and 6 in catcher arm. His framing numbers have been poor, however. His backup is John McMuttray, who is a RINO – Receiver in Name Only. McMuttray rates a 5 in catcher ability and 6 in arm, and his framing numbers are atrocious. Another possibility is 24-year-old rookie Bob Passell, but he has yet to see any time above AA. Passell’s skills are comparable to Smith’s. Assuming that Smith starts 100 games at catcher, I would expect to see 1.5 WAR at catcher, a big leap over last season.

FIRST BASE
The Pikemen got 1.7 WAR out of their first basemen last season, all of it from Cam Whitten, who accounted for about 1.9 WAR at the position over 109 starts. Whitten, a switch hitter, is back. Both Cesar Rodiguez and Numan Abu al Khayr played some first base last year. Rodriguez was good for a half WAR as an infield sub, but Abu al Khayr accrued negative 0.7 WAR in 41 starts. To be fair, Abu al Khayr’s numbers were out of line with his career numbers, and I expect him to revert to his mean. I project first base to produce about two WAR this season.

SECOND BASE
Last year’s second baseman, switch-hitting Ruben Alvarado, returns, He’s only 25, and should approach league average production in his third season in the majors. His fielding is also near league average as a second baseman. He made 116 starts last year. Assuming the same, he should improve on his 0.9 WAR, perhaps earning as much as 1.5 WAR this go-around.

THIRD BASE
At third base, 36-year-old Brian Dixon returns. Last season he started 123 games at the position, accruing 0.9 WAR. His fielding is roughly league average at the hot corner. Last season was his best in three years, and I don’t think that is sustainable at his age. I expect some regression, and project about half a WAR.

SHORTSTOP
The $24 million man at shortstop is Socrates Kazantziakis. Like Ichiro and Madonna, his adoring fans know him as just Socrates; none of them can pronounce his last name, but that’s beside the point. At age 30, Socrates is an Iron Man. He always answers the bell. The last five seasons, he has started 150, 135, 135, 131, and 141 games. Last season was his best since 2051. He’s lost a step in the field, but he is still a fine shortstop. Expect another routine 3+ WAR season.

LEFT FIELD
Left field is patrolled by another Iron Man, 36-year-old Julio Barajas. He is in the last season of an $18 million per year contract, and believe me, it can’t end soon enough for the Pikemen. He still answers the bell, but his skills have eroded to the point that he is a major liability both in the field and at the plate. Last season his slash line went from .326/.388/.599 in 2055 to .259/.277/.383 in 2056. Trust me, it’s going to get worse, not better this season. His fielding, never great, is worsening as his legs give out. He can’t play first. If you feel that you have to give him at-bats, he should be the DH. He cost the team two WAR last season. This season will be even more costly if he plays. Honestly, I think it’s time to say good-bye to Senor Barajas, retire his jersey number, and eat the $18 million. He hit the 500 home run milestone last season. He already has over 3,000 hits. Let the man retire, then use your PPT to convert him to a hitting coach.

CENTER FIELD
The 25-year-old Paul Strickland will take over center field this season after serving as a fourth outfielder last season. He struggled at the plate in his first taste of major league pitching, but he should improve somewhat over the ghastly 56 OPS+ that he posted last season. He’s roughly league average in center. If he can improve to about 80 OPS+, he should manage to accrue about one WAR.

RIGHT FIELD
Right field will be one of the bright spots for the Pikemen. Eric Wagner provides some sorely needed left-handed thump for a lineup stacked with right-handed hitters. While his power has declined over the last few seasons, he’s still a formidable hitter and a fine right fielder. Look for him to post about three WAR.

DESIGNATED HITTER
The Pikemen got zero WAR from the DH position last season, and it’s not at all clear that it will get any better this season. McMuttray got the lion’s share of playing time there, 92 games, and accrued zero WAR.

POSITION PLAYER SUMMARY
I project about 12.5 position player WAR before subtracting 2.5 WAR for Barajas. At ten WAR, that’s about a 50% improvement over last season, but last season is a low bar.

PITCHING

ROTATION
Last season’s rotation is mostly intact. Jon Keys, who had the best FIP and accrued 2.4 WAR in 20 starts, went down during spring training with a torn UCL, sidelining him for the season. That leaves Nathaniel Davis (31 GS, 3.0 WAR, 4.13 FIP), Danny Leach (31 GS, 2.3 WAR, 4.51 FIP), Joe MacIndoe (31 GS, 2.4 WAR, 4.57 FIP), and Nasir al Din bin Sahir (31 GS, 1.8 WAR, 4.82 FIP). It looks like Rockville intends to start the season with a 6-man rotation, so they’ll need to find two more starters. They appear to be former swingman Dabir Nawful and former closer Luis Gonzalez. Expect roughly similar production here.

BULLPEN
Moving last year’s closer into the rotation will have a ripple effect on the pen. In addition, last season’s most effective reliever, Jimmy Bumble, left in free agency. David Wade assumes the closer’s mantle; he was the best of an otherwise unremarkable group last season behind Gonzalez and Bumble. Bullpen’s are notoriously variable from one season to the next, so perhaps someone will step up. It seems likely, however, that the pen could be a liability in close or extra inning games, causing the team to underperform its Pythagorean projection.

FARM SYSTEM

Rockville’s minor league system ranks 17th in the league, with three of the top 100 prospects:

Twenty-year-old Masahiko Harada (prospect #26) was the 9th overall pick in 2055, a left-handed slugger with 75 potential who projects as a DH. He has a high work ethic. He is currently in Short Season A ball.

Twenty-two-year-old Fida bin Kaseem (prospect #39) was acquired in a trade in 2054. A switch hitter who is much stronger from the left side of the plate, bin Kaseem is a slugger with 70 potential who projects as a first baseman. He has a high work ethic. He is currently in Short Season A ball.

Nineteen-year-old starting pitcher Jorge Ramirez (prospect #58) was a third-round pick in the 2054 draft class. Currently rehabbing from a torn UCL, he has a high work ethic and 50 potential. He last pitched in AA. With another season under his belt, he should be close to major league ready. He has four above-average pitches plus a poor changeup that will likely never develop.

SUMMARY

If the offense takes the step forward that I project, it should more than offset the losses in the bullpen. If Barajas is allowed to retire while he can still walk, that will be addition by subtraction. I think that this will be the season that Rockville finishes the season at or above .500 for the first time since 2053. Let’s say 82 wins ±3.

[JimSlade]

What's that diaclaimer they tack onto the end of political ads? "I'm Jim Slade, and I support Bob's message!" Thanks for the preview and the hearty chuckle over the Ichiro/Madonna reference.

Yes, managing the Barajas retirement tour will be a task in itself. We'll also see if I start the season with my 6-man rotation or try something weird that I think, sadly, could be the direction real-life, modern-day baseball takes. (See the Rays' and Giants' buzzkill approach to pitching.)

The WAR-deficit issue from my everyday players is troubling. Ideally, a Cam Whitten should be my sixth-best regular, not my second or third. I do get some production out of my misfit toys, but the lack of a pure power hitter and so many mediocre fielders must cut into the WAR calculations.

[BaseClogger]

Good preview! Gotta find a way to find some thump from the DH spot. Guys will hit waivers who are above replacement level.

[Bob Breum]

I'd release Barajas and add a defensive catcher to complement Smith. That would allow you to use McMuttray at DH; he's a real liability at C. Your pitching staff will thank you.

[Bob Breum]

Instead of moving Gonzalez into the rotation, I'd slot him in the pen as your stopper. That will maximize his innings and strengthen your pen more than using him to close. Like BaseClogger said, you can likely improve your roster after this sim, as the waiver wire will be loaded.