2057 TOKYO PEARLS
What happened last year?
The Tokyo Pearls seem like they don't know which way is up, and haven't for a long time. Now with the latest in a revolving door of several GM's (and "Caretaker GM's") at the helm, it's important that this team find some direction, and quickly, after years of floundering around. Fortunately, the latest man in the hot seat, Mr. Umali, appears to have taken charge and put together a respectable roster, given what he had to work with in a short period of time. But, as always, questions remain.
Rewinding the tape a bit, a huge reason for the Pearl's current situation is the, shall we say, fluid status of the front office the last few seasons. At the beginning of 2056, it appeared that stability had been achieved with the latest new GM, but as the season approached midpoint, it had been clear that the team had been abandoned yet again. A caretaker stepped in who was somewhat familiar with the team, and in order to prevent a tanking situation that would have upset the competitive balance of the GBC, he worked to get the Pearls from a winning percentage just above .300 to almost .500 by the end of the season.
Again, a lot to sort through for Mr. Umali. But what does he have to work with? Let's take a look at the club that the predictions have finishing midpack in the GBC in 2057.
The Rotation:
A big event last season was the resigning of ace Umar Dogar, who commanded a princely sum to stick around. But as a steady, durable starter who has averaged 4 WAR the past four seasons, it was felt critical that he remain with the club to anchor this staff. Jayin Ranjani has both started and relieved the last two seasons, but recorded 3.3 WAR as a full time starter in 2054. An interesting case will be that of Huang Cheng, used mostly as a closer in his career but poised to hold down a rotation slot. The most likely candidates to fill out the starting five appear to be Markuri Siliqi, who came back from a torn labrum to pitch well in limited action last year, and veteran righty Don Makepeace.
The Bullpen:
Rolf Reinhardt has the ratings to start, except for the most important one, endurance. He'll likely join Fillipio Ioratti in a long relief role. Chris Wilhelm appears to be the only lefty of note, so we're betting he makes the squad based on that alone. If Veikko Aravirta could put it all together, he could be a great late inning solution, but he has yet to achieve the consistency required. Naruhiko Kawano and veteran Ron Smith could also see some bullpen innings. The transfer of Cheng to the rotation opens up an opportunity for a new closer, and free agent signee Seu Park looks ready to fill that role, until you realize he's been out of baseball since 2054. But if he succeeds despite spotty control, Park will be a cost-effective solution.
The Infield:
The catching situation looks to be the same as last season, with Chris Cordero and Ernesto Perez splitting duties behind the dish, likely in a platoon setup. They combined for 1.3 WAR last year. First base will see more substantial changes, with last season's duo each wanting multi million dollar extensions to stick around. Therefore, defensive specialist Bao Li looks to get the starting nod, as he looks to recapture some of the success he had in Athens a few years back. The middle of the infield looks a little bare, with Fa-tang Situ looking to be the only reasonable hitter available, while Carlos Garza and Quentin Favre are more glove-first players. Third base should be manned by 10 year BBA veteran Roberto Puente, and only because one of the club's best prospects refuses to improve (see below).
The Outfield:
The outfield is a strength, led by veteran left fielder Jesus Perez, who recorded 3.1 WAR last season for the Pearls. Center Fielder Rafael Moreno has put up great numbers year after year despite below average defense, but he'll have to contend with a strained hamstring for the first month of the season before he gets back to his mid-3 WAR ways. And in right, we have speedy leadoff hitter Elton Warr, who slashed .354/.388/.503 in 51 games after being called up last season. Steven Bursey and Callum McKay look like capable outfield backups, but the real question is what will Tokyo do with its number one prospect?
The Farm System:
That #1 prospect would be LF Manchu Kim. And though his 75 POT rating might be a tad generous, there's no question that he'll be a slugger with huge power and a great eye. But is he ready for the big leagues? Kim has an option year left, so the Pearls can wait him out if necessary. But an even bigger question mark is the aforementioned 3B prospect, namely Wen Shan, a 23 year old "potential" power hitter with no options remaining. The only problem is, his ratings have refused to budge for over two years now, and the club is going to have to find a place to stash him on the ML roster because he'd surely be claimed on waivers. Further down the prospect list are a plethora of first basemen and left fielders, a sight that doesn't bode well long term no matter how well they may hit. One potential diamond out of this rough looks to be starting pitcher Asir Suoud, who projects to be a mid rotation GBC starter if he can maximize his movement potential.
Outlook:
The past has been full of questionable leadership and stability for a number of years now. And that just multiplies the questions for the future. The GBC is suffering a talent drain that is practically unprecedented, given its demotion to "Independent League" status and some atrocious draft classes the last two seasons. Most free agents won't even pick up the phone if a GBC club comes calling, even if they've been sitting idle for months or even years.
It's absolutely a challenge for new GMs in the BBA universe to navigate today's GBC, and just as difficult for a season previewer to predict a result. Given the challenges, anything over .500 for Tokyo in 2057 should be celebrated. But with an active and engaged front office, looking for waiver wire gems or mid season free agents, anything can happen. This franchise has too good of a history for the floundering to continue, and so far it looks like Mr. Umali is just the man to get the franchise back on the right track. Let's say 81-81, with a huge margin of error given the new leadership. Yeah it might sound like a cop out to predict an even season, but there are just too many unknowns!
Best of luck to the Pearls, they've got a lot of work ahead of them!
