2056 Charm City Preview
Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2023 9:09 pm
Charm City is approaching dynasty status, having won back-to-back championships. They are fresh off a 120-win season. Can they three-peat?
Here's my analysis:
CATCHERS
Primary C: Tokimasa Yano is a Fan Fav who had a down year at the plate last season, with his OPS+ plummeting to 73 after three years of above average batting. This dropped his WAR from an average of well over 4.0 down to only 1.8. Scouting shows a slight dropoff in power, but nothing that should prevent him from regressing to his mean of 4+ WAR, which is All-Star production. Yano’s real value is his framing, as he has averaged over 10 framing runs per season.
Backup C: Hollis O’Hara is an elite defensive catcher with even better framing skills and a rocket arm, but a Punch and Judy bat. The pitching staff must love him, but he’s nearly an automatic out when he’s in the lineup.
MIDDLE INFIELD
This is Charm City’s greatest strength, and likely the envy of every other ballclub. Most teams have to settle for either offense or defense in their middle infield, as it is rare to find players who excel at both in these demanding positions. No such compromise is necessary in Charm City.
Second base: Dave Ackerman is a young (25) superstar with four Gold Gloves at the keystone while delivering an average annual WAR of over 6 across the last three seasons. He’s a towering figure at 6’5” with elite power, crushing 45 home runs last season while driving in 104 and stealing 24 bases. My only concern with Dave is that he is Fragile. Losing him for any length of time will certainly impact the ballclub.
Shortstop: Sammy McNeill is a 29-year-old veteran who owns three Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. Last season he earned almost 7 WAR. He’s not a slugger like his double play partner, but his fielding is even better with his cannon arm. He stole 28 bases in 32 attempts, while hitting over .300 and getting on base at a .384 clip.
Backup: Asil Colasan is a switch-hitting infielder who is a plus defender at second, third, and short. He's a below average hitter, but he managed 1.0 WAR last season in a reserve role.
CORNER INFIELD
If the Jimmies had any weakness last season, it is here. Last season’s production was poor, with decent production at first, but almost nothing at third base. It is ironic that the Jimmies saw great offense from the middle, but little from the corners, just the opposite of what one would expect. Corner offense is much cheaper than up-the-middle offense.
First base: It appears that last year’s rookie, right-handed hitting Jules Le Gal, has won the job. He posted 1.0 WAR in 62 starts last year, which extrapolates to about 2.5 WAR across a full season. Last season the team got just under 3 WAR at first base by committee. If Le Gal doesn’t suffer from the dreaded sophomore slump, maybe he can duplicate that. Perhaps Charm City can find an inexpensive left-handed slugger to platoon with Le Gal and improve production here.
Third base: This was a black hole last year, producing less than 1 WAR. Manny Collazo and Roberto Villanuevea platooned, with the switch-hitting Collazo receiving the lion’s share of starts. The otherwise durable Collazo missed about six weeks with injuries. In the last five years, the 34-year-old Collazo has exceeded 0.8 WAR only once, and his last All-Star season was five years ago. He’s roughly average fielding the hot corner, and last season his bat declined to a 92 OPS+. It looks like he’ll return for 2056, and I expect his gradual decline to continue. Villanueva is a strong defender, but has never reached even league average offensive production, even when you isolate his plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
CORNER OUTFIELD
There were the two strongest offensive positions for the Jimmies last season.
Left fielder Tadataka Yoshikawa had a career year, leading the league in runs and triples, while slugging 42 home runs and driving in 125. He is roughly a league average defender. I think it’s unrealistic to expect another 6.5 WAR from Yoshikawa, but the 30-year-old should continue to provide All Star production if his Fragile injury proneness doesn’t catch up with him.
Right fielder Kazunari Chikafuji also enjoyed his best season, leading the team in WAR with 7.1. His 47 home runs and 24 stolen bases earned him membership into the exclusive 20/20 club, and he reached triple digits in both runs and RBIs. At the age of 27, he’s likely at his peak, so I don’t expect a large regression. I’d pencil him in for 5-6 WAR. He’s also an above average defender, which contributes to his total WAR and is less variable than offensive WAR.
CENTER FIELD
This has gone from an area of strength to one of concern. The team lost Arvin Duggan to free agency, and then traded away his understudy Bill Morley to Montreal. For now, the Jimmies will depend on Mike Cox to patrol center field, where he is an above average defender. Last season, Duggan and company accumulated 4.8 WAR at the position, but I’ll be surprised if Cox and crew can exceed 2 WAR this year, as Cox’s offensive numbers are expected to be well below league average.
DESIGNATED HITTER
Like the infield corners, this historically strong offensive position returned weak production last season, less than 2 WAR, with no one player assigned to the role.
This season, the club signed 35-year-old left-handed Wilson Alomar to assume the strong side of the DH platoon. He was out of baseball in 2055; he had several All Star appearances back in the ‘40s, but his skills have eroded with age. He is not the answer. Against left-handed pitching, the Jimmies will run out the speedy Kilipaki Iugini, who filled a utility role for them last season. This duo will be lucky to total 1 WAR.
STARTING PITCHING
Charm City returns almost all of its rotation intact from last season. Staff ace Hector Silva will be entering his third season, after two All Star campaigns that saw him start 60 games, earn over 9 WAR, and notch 32 wins. In his rookie season, the southpaw led the league in fewest walks/nine, and last season he led the league in WHIP.
Following Silva are veterans Rannal Seldon, Waseem bin Suhayb, and Allen Davidson, all solid starters. The fifth starter will be rookie Ty Vannatta, who threw 21 innings last season, mostly out of the pen. Vannatta features three plus-plus pitches, but the lack of movement may be a problem.
The rotation should be comparable to last season.
BULLPEN
Closer Manuel Barrera returns to anchor the pen. He led the league the last two seasons with 46 saves each.
The biggest offseason loss for the pitching staff was the departure of Gerardo Rea as a free agent. He threw 106 innings for the Jimmies, finishing with 15 wins out of the pen and an ERA+ of 228.
The team signed free agents Bill O’Connor, Wayne Dorsey, and Robinson Perez to fill out their relief corps after the departure of Rea and several others. O’Connor will share setup duties with the incumbent Clarence Pritchard, while Dorsey and Perez are expected to provide middle relief.
With Barrera still in place, I expect the pen to also be comparable to the previous season.
FARM SYSTEM
Charm City does not boast a strong minor league system, ranking 24th among the 32 BBA organizations. Their top prospect is Vannatta, and he will lose his prospect status this season. Drafting last makes it tough to rebuild a depleted farm system.
OFFSEASON
The biggest blow to the team’s chances of three-peating was the loss of center fielder Arvin Duggan to free agency. As you would expect from a first place team, the Jimmies payroll is near the salary cap, and they likely could not offer Duggan what he wanted.
Based on last season’s performance, Charm City had several needs to address in the offseason. These were first base, third base, and DH, all three performing well below league average. After free agency, two more concerns were added: center field and the bullpen. Unfortunately, only the bullpen was addressed. With a weak farm system and little cap room, the Jimmies are hard pressed to fix these, either through trade or free agency.
SUMMARY
Charm City’s plan is to run it back with essentially the same roster that has won two consecutive championships. Losing Duggan in center field is really the only significant change, and that will cost them a few games. Last season saw several players post career best seasons, and I expect some regression to the mean. On the flip side, I expect Yano to bounce back from a subpar season.
Charm City has been “lucky” over the course of their dynastic run, winning between 5 and 9 more games than their Pythagorean would project. If this run of luck continues, I expect them to win 105 games, but if the baseball gods decide otherwise, it is entirely possible to see them win 95 games. I’ll go with an over/under of 100 games.
Here's my analysis:
CATCHERS
Primary C: Tokimasa Yano is a Fan Fav who had a down year at the plate last season, with his OPS+ plummeting to 73 after three years of above average batting. This dropped his WAR from an average of well over 4.0 down to only 1.8. Scouting shows a slight dropoff in power, but nothing that should prevent him from regressing to his mean of 4+ WAR, which is All-Star production. Yano’s real value is his framing, as he has averaged over 10 framing runs per season.
Backup C: Hollis O’Hara is an elite defensive catcher with even better framing skills and a rocket arm, but a Punch and Judy bat. The pitching staff must love him, but he’s nearly an automatic out when he’s in the lineup.
MIDDLE INFIELD
This is Charm City’s greatest strength, and likely the envy of every other ballclub. Most teams have to settle for either offense or defense in their middle infield, as it is rare to find players who excel at both in these demanding positions. No such compromise is necessary in Charm City.
Second base: Dave Ackerman is a young (25) superstar with four Gold Gloves at the keystone while delivering an average annual WAR of over 6 across the last three seasons. He’s a towering figure at 6’5” with elite power, crushing 45 home runs last season while driving in 104 and stealing 24 bases. My only concern with Dave is that he is Fragile. Losing him for any length of time will certainly impact the ballclub.
Shortstop: Sammy McNeill is a 29-year-old veteran who owns three Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. Last season he earned almost 7 WAR. He’s not a slugger like his double play partner, but his fielding is even better with his cannon arm. He stole 28 bases in 32 attempts, while hitting over .300 and getting on base at a .384 clip.
Backup: Asil Colasan is a switch-hitting infielder who is a plus defender at second, third, and short. He's a below average hitter, but he managed 1.0 WAR last season in a reserve role.
CORNER INFIELD
If the Jimmies had any weakness last season, it is here. Last season’s production was poor, with decent production at first, but almost nothing at third base. It is ironic that the Jimmies saw great offense from the middle, but little from the corners, just the opposite of what one would expect. Corner offense is much cheaper than up-the-middle offense.
First base: It appears that last year’s rookie, right-handed hitting Jules Le Gal, has won the job. He posted 1.0 WAR in 62 starts last year, which extrapolates to about 2.5 WAR across a full season. Last season the team got just under 3 WAR at first base by committee. If Le Gal doesn’t suffer from the dreaded sophomore slump, maybe he can duplicate that. Perhaps Charm City can find an inexpensive left-handed slugger to platoon with Le Gal and improve production here.
Third base: This was a black hole last year, producing less than 1 WAR. Manny Collazo and Roberto Villanuevea platooned, with the switch-hitting Collazo receiving the lion’s share of starts. The otherwise durable Collazo missed about six weeks with injuries. In the last five years, the 34-year-old Collazo has exceeded 0.8 WAR only once, and his last All-Star season was five years ago. He’s roughly average fielding the hot corner, and last season his bat declined to a 92 OPS+. It looks like he’ll return for 2056, and I expect his gradual decline to continue. Villanueva is a strong defender, but has never reached even league average offensive production, even when you isolate his plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
CORNER OUTFIELD
There were the two strongest offensive positions for the Jimmies last season.
Left fielder Tadataka Yoshikawa had a career year, leading the league in runs and triples, while slugging 42 home runs and driving in 125. He is roughly a league average defender. I think it’s unrealistic to expect another 6.5 WAR from Yoshikawa, but the 30-year-old should continue to provide All Star production if his Fragile injury proneness doesn’t catch up with him.
Right fielder Kazunari Chikafuji also enjoyed his best season, leading the team in WAR with 7.1. His 47 home runs and 24 stolen bases earned him membership into the exclusive 20/20 club, and he reached triple digits in both runs and RBIs. At the age of 27, he’s likely at his peak, so I don’t expect a large regression. I’d pencil him in for 5-6 WAR. He’s also an above average defender, which contributes to his total WAR and is less variable than offensive WAR.
CENTER FIELD
This has gone from an area of strength to one of concern. The team lost Arvin Duggan to free agency, and then traded away his understudy Bill Morley to Montreal. For now, the Jimmies will depend on Mike Cox to patrol center field, where he is an above average defender. Last season, Duggan and company accumulated 4.8 WAR at the position, but I’ll be surprised if Cox and crew can exceed 2 WAR this year, as Cox’s offensive numbers are expected to be well below league average.
DESIGNATED HITTER
Like the infield corners, this historically strong offensive position returned weak production last season, less than 2 WAR, with no one player assigned to the role.
This season, the club signed 35-year-old left-handed Wilson Alomar to assume the strong side of the DH platoon. He was out of baseball in 2055; he had several All Star appearances back in the ‘40s, but his skills have eroded with age. He is not the answer. Against left-handed pitching, the Jimmies will run out the speedy Kilipaki Iugini, who filled a utility role for them last season. This duo will be lucky to total 1 WAR.
STARTING PITCHING
Charm City returns almost all of its rotation intact from last season. Staff ace Hector Silva will be entering his third season, after two All Star campaigns that saw him start 60 games, earn over 9 WAR, and notch 32 wins. In his rookie season, the southpaw led the league in fewest walks/nine, and last season he led the league in WHIP.
Following Silva are veterans Rannal Seldon, Waseem bin Suhayb, and Allen Davidson, all solid starters. The fifth starter will be rookie Ty Vannatta, who threw 21 innings last season, mostly out of the pen. Vannatta features three plus-plus pitches, but the lack of movement may be a problem.
The rotation should be comparable to last season.
BULLPEN
Closer Manuel Barrera returns to anchor the pen. He led the league the last two seasons with 46 saves each.
The biggest offseason loss for the pitching staff was the departure of Gerardo Rea as a free agent. He threw 106 innings for the Jimmies, finishing with 15 wins out of the pen and an ERA+ of 228.
The team signed free agents Bill O’Connor, Wayne Dorsey, and Robinson Perez to fill out their relief corps after the departure of Rea and several others. O’Connor will share setup duties with the incumbent Clarence Pritchard, while Dorsey and Perez are expected to provide middle relief.
With Barrera still in place, I expect the pen to also be comparable to the previous season.
FARM SYSTEM
Charm City does not boast a strong minor league system, ranking 24th among the 32 BBA organizations. Their top prospect is Vannatta, and he will lose his prospect status this season. Drafting last makes it tough to rebuild a depleted farm system.
OFFSEASON
The biggest blow to the team’s chances of three-peating was the loss of center fielder Arvin Duggan to free agency. As you would expect from a first place team, the Jimmies payroll is near the salary cap, and they likely could not offer Duggan what he wanted.
Based on last season’s performance, Charm City had several needs to address in the offseason. These were first base, third base, and DH, all three performing well below league average. After free agency, two more concerns were added: center field and the bullpen. Unfortunately, only the bullpen was addressed. With a weak farm system and little cap room, the Jimmies are hard pressed to fix these, either through trade or free agency.
SUMMARY
Charm City’s plan is to run it back with essentially the same roster that has won two consecutive championships. Losing Duggan in center field is really the only significant change, and that will cost them a few games. Last season saw several players post career best seasons, and I expect some regression to the mean. On the flip side, I expect Yano to bounce back from a subpar season.
Charm City has been “lucky” over the course of their dynastic run, winning between 5 and 9 more games than their Pythagorean would project. If this run of luck continues, I expect them to win 105 games, but if the baseball gods decide otherwise, it is entirely possible to see them win 95 games. I’ll go with an over/under of 100 games.