What moves did the Nashville Bluebirds make this off season?
Key Free-Agent Signings/Rule 5/Waivers:
• SP Billy Kelly (6 yr/$86M)
• P Ricardo Rivera (1 yr/$1.6M)
Key Departures:
• LF Felipe Vega (3.5 WAR)—FA
• SP Manuel García (2.4 WAR)—FA
• CF Frédérick Brisset(2.3 WAR)—FA
• 3B Rhys Brickell(1.7 WAR)—FA
• RP Mike Allain (0.0 WAR)—FA
• RP Samuel Vankrimpen(-0.3 WAR)—Non-tendered
The Bluebirds haven't won less than 87 games since 2047 and averaged 98 wins per season during that eight-year period. For my money, that makes them a bona fide dynasty. They look to reload in 2056 and get to the top of a very competitive--and top-heavy in particular--Heartland division.
Several players departed Nashville in free agency but I don't expect it to hold the Bluebirds back. Felipe Vega was the most productive but left-handed hitting corner outfielders are a dime a dozen. Garcia was upgraded (more on that below). Brisset was merely a pennant run rental. Brickell was a disappointment after posting a 6.0 WAR season with Omaha in 2054. And the two relievers combined to have negative WAR.
On the acquisition side, Nasvhille was mostly quiet and will look to reinforce their roster from within (more on that below). The one big splash was headline starting pitcher Billy Kelly, who nearly crossed the $90M threshold and infuses the roster with yet another elite talent. Still a capable starting pitcher at his advanced age, Ricardo Rivera could be a weapon out of the Nashville bullpen.
Overall, I like the team's offseason stategy. They consolidated a bunch of role players into an elite starting pitcher and otherwise look to rely on their long-standing excellent farm system to do its job.
Kurt Imber off-season grade: B+
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Players to watch
Team MVP?
Brooks Eliot, SS: This team is so littered with 70+ OVR talent I could have put the roster up on a dart board and not looked foolish. But these days Brewster championship teams are built on having a superstart shortstop and I think that's what Nashville has in its budding youngster, Brooks Eliot.
Most likely trade candidate?
Ragheb Burhan, CF: Burhan can't slow down the freight train that approaches by the name of Crissy Tingle. With all of the talent they've amassed in the outfield, Burhan could find himself redundant by midseason and most useful to the Bluebirds as trade bait.
Most likely to take a step back this season?
Barney Lindsay, SP: We already saw Lindsay start to taper off before he reinvented himself in 2055 so we know what this step back could look like. This will be Lindsay's age 32 season and his 7 MOV rating, along with weaker splits against right-handed hitters, leaves me thinking he's more likely to have an ERA north of 4.00 and south of it.
Who has the most to lose (or gain) this season?
Wafid Bishr, 1B: Once the darling of the league, Bishr has fallen on relatively hard times in recent years. He put up back-to-back 8 WAR seasons at ages 23-24 and I at least thought we had a sure fire HoFer. His production has steadily declined since that peak in 2052, and as an impending free agent Bishr could be wearing a new uniform in 2057 if he doesn't remind the Nashville front office just how good he can be. With all of the talent they have coming up thru their minor leagues it just might not make a difference.
Most likely to have a bounce-back season?
Billy Kelly, SP: Well, this was easy. Kelly was worth at least 4 WAR every season 2051-2054 before taking a step back last year. Still only 31 years old, I expect Kelly to right his home run problems, check the walks, and increase his strikeouts in Nashville.
Likeliest to outperform their projection?
Niaz Minhas, SS: With all their talent, I'm not totally sure how Nashville will utilize Minhas this year. He was the starting shortstop in 2055 but if I were running things I'd flip his position with Brooks Eliot. Minhas has never been above-average defensively at shortstop thanks to his weak throwing arm but he could be excellent at second base. He'll hit southpaws better than righties but he should hit better than his .226/.300/.347 2055 slash line regardless. Having steadily increased his home run output every season of his career thus far, don't be surprised if Minhas swats 20 homers while playing excellent defense at the keystone.
Rookie most likely to make an impact?
Crissy Tingle, CF: predicting the performance of young ballplayers can be a fool's errand but there's one thing we know for sure--Crissy Tingle is going to get his chance. I feel like Chad hasn't stopped talking about him since we recorded our Brewster's Babies podcast last season, so despite stiff competition Tingle should get plenty of playing time. He's such a high floor player that it would take lingering effects of his 2054 season-ending injury to hold him down.
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How good is the Bluebirds farm system?
No. 1 prospect: Jorge Canó (#5 overall)
If you listened to our podcast you know this isn't who I'd rank as their top prospect, which speaks to just how deep this system is. I expect Chad to let Cano simmer at AAA for a majority of the season while Bishr is given every opportunity to prove he deserves a lucrative extension. Cano has been more ratings than stats thus far so it also gives him a chance to start converting that potential into production.
Organization’s ranking: No. 2
I'd have Nashville's organization ranked as the best in the league after perusing the top talent in the highest ranked org, Long Beach. Nothing against Long Beach, who boasts a lot of talent, but Nashville's system looks deeper and has better pitching prospects. Two really important potential contributors who may break camp in the Bluebird rotation are starting pitchers Jeremy Nickerson and Mark Lolololo.
What to expect from the Bluebirds this season?
Kurt Imber season projection: 96-66
I don't know if 96 wins is enough to win the division but it will surely lead to another playoff berth. Nashville is reloading and there could be growing pains as they incorporate some of their youth, the starting pitchers in particular. But they're also incredibly deep, giving them a high floor. They have the young talent to make a trade to address any weakness that may arise with this roster by midseason. And I've typed this many words without getting the chance to bring up Juan Rivera's swan song season.
Bold prediction:
Underappreciated starters Jim Fleming and Steven Clayton both have better seasons than the more heralded (and better compensated) Billy Kelly and Barney Lindsay.
