Now we’re talking Brewster Baseball, aren’t we? I fully admit to be a little out of sorts and rusty when it comes to fiddling with the dials and squeezing the last few dollops of speed from a BBA team’s engines, but I’ve been known to be able to make these kinds of things work. To come up against a game-planning wiz like the guy in the Twin City seat … well, now … this is kinda fun.
Sacramento made it past Nashville the good old-fashioned way, that is, of course, to rely on a sub-zero WAR replacement to go off from the lead-off spot. Whatever happens to Rich Dares from this point on, he’s always going to be my hero. Twin Cities worked past Des Moines by rolling the dice and using a nifty string of pitching assignments paired with an offense that managed a couple five and six-run outbursts.
The question, of course, is what will happen going forward, and to be honest, if you can tell me what that is, I’d love to know. Both teams like to grab the platoon advantage whenever possible, and that means so much depends on the matchups. And these two teams are full of mixing and matching—Sacramento more so on the offense than the hill, Twin Cities both ways. There’s also the uncertainty of what Sacramento’s offense really is.
Let’s take a look at some numbers, shall we?
| Sacramento | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vs RHP | 0.284 | 0.331 | 0.392 | 0.723 |
| Vs. LHP | 0.257 | 0.333 | 0.372 | 0.705 |
This would suggest the River Monsters will focus on getting lefties onto the hill whenever possible. But those are season long numbers, and anyone following the Sacramento drama knows that the team has made some fairly large changes since the All-Star break, almost all geared toward fixing the weak side of that platoon.
Here was the team’s numbers vs. LHP in September:
| September | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vs. LHP | 0.263 | 0.345 | 0.415 | 0.760 |
That says that Alan in the TWC seat will focus on getting RHP into the rotation. Or will he try the dipsy-do of bullpen games again. In which case, will Sacramento pull the swap of their lineups to counter it?
Fun, right?
On the Twin Cities side of the offense, the question is similar, though with the strength of Sacramento’s core pitching one suspects that strategic options are more about who starts, and when. In a sense, it boils down to “When do I want to face David Simpson?”
The right answer, of course, is “never,” but we don’t live in a perfect world.
Here are the splits for Twin Cities' offense.
| Twin Cities | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vs. RHP | 0.255 | 0.327 | 0.416 | 0.743 |
| Vs. LHP | 0.260 | 0.325 | 0.403 | 0.729 |
The good news is that we are quite deep in left-handed pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen. Sacramento moved LHP Robert Hanson to the pen against Nashville. Is it possible he’d start a game against Twin Cities? If so, will the team go five-man, or would either right-handers (Thomas Turner or Ruben Vazquez) take his turn in the bullpen?
See what I mean?
Decisions/Decisions.
The bottom line is that neither of these teams are offensive powerhouses. The league as a whole OPSed .752, so unless you weight that 1-month Sacramento data with any seriousness, every run could be worth its weight in anticipation.
On the mound the teams are similar in performance if not composition.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento | 0.237 | 0.291 | 0.372 | 0.663 | 0.274 |
| Twin Cities | 0.243 | 0.300 | 0.385 | 0.690 | 0.270 |
TWC’s park is a gentle pitcher's place, Sacramento’s is a pitcher’s haven. Adjust these a bit for park differences, and you’re awfully close. The composition and use of the staff are considerably different, though. Where Sacramento’s hurlers are veteran guys with solid name recognition, the River Monster pitchers are mostly kids in their first few seasons. The Mad Popes carry names like Flores, Vazquez, Turner, and King—guys who can blow you over. The River Monsters counter with waves of lower-rated, but capable arms that the team deploys in ways to accentuate what skills they have while hiding away those skills they do not have.
The stories in the bullpens are not really much different.
The playoff eligible roster for Twin Cities shows 18 pitchers, and literally any of the 18 could be active come Game One.
How do you Game Plan for that, right?
Will we see the wave of lefties, as season-long Hoyle would dictate. Or will the TWC brain trust look at that recent piece of small sample size data and change their mind? Or am I just over-thinking this thing completely, and am I just totally out of the ballpark?
Honestly, I don’t know, but boy is it fun to think about.
Right now, internal league voting says the Mad Popes are a 9:5 favorite. I guess that’s about as good of a line as any. I think it’s closer, though.
Still, I’ll say that the strength of the Sacramento pitching staff will make it through.
Sacramento in, let’s call it, 6.
