JACKSONVILLE vs. MEXICO CITY
The Hurricanes find themselves in the postseason for the first time in five years, and are only a season removed from a 78-win season. The Aztecs are essentially the opposite. At 92 wins, they’re on the way down from a six-season stint that saw them register a peak of 107 wins and hoist a Monty Brewster trophy. Looking at the team stats, you can feel a real imbalance in the force.
On paper, Jacksonville just doesn’t look like they should be able to get it done. The offense just doesn’t make sense. Barring bases on balls (which they were #2), Jacksonville didn’t crack the top ten in any of the normal components, yet still managed to rank 8th in runs scored. The mound stats tell a similar tale. The team hung round the #5-#6 mark in most everything except for the fact that they led the league in strikeouts. It’s a line for stealth success, I guess. Walk a lot, and lead the league in striking out the other guys, and you’re going to be in a lot of games.
I note the Hurricane’s wound up winning four more games than their pyth suggested they should, so that kind of adds up.
And I note the club was 28-19 in one-run games. So is that luck? I dunno.
Mexico City, however, at least on the mound, looks pretty stout. Their rotation is anchored by a couple guys who could be in the Nebraska hunt (And Dave Corfield may well win it), and registers in as the best ERA collection in the Johnson. Their bullpen scores in at #3 by that metric, too. A similarity to the Hurricanes exists here, though, because while the Aztecs hang around the mid-pack in most offensive categories they tied for #4 on the list of most runs scored. So the offense was more efficient than one might expect. Connect that up to a top pitching staff, and you’ve got the picture of a postseason team.
Top off this study by a glance at the Aztec’s pyth record, and you see they should have won 95 games, two more than they did. This just adds more fuel to the David vs. Goliath story. It’s a tough line, but I can’t see any reasonable person having a strong expectation for Jacksonville progressing. Hurricane fans can maybe point to Aztec catcher Roelof Klooster gimping around a little as a sign of an Achilles … um … knee.And I guess you can point at Angel Zalapa slowing down a little. But this is the team that added Daniel Pepper at the trade deadline, and has Felix Roman still launching homers right and left. So, while Jacksonville’s Donald Miller and crew is a fine hitter, I think they need about six more to make a difference.
So, yeah: Mexico City in four
BOISE vs. MONTREAL
I think this one is closer than the 95 wins for Montreal and 85 for Boise would suggest. These two teams split their eight games this season. Four-four. The real pinch-point is the Boise offense, which was not great for most of the year, managing a paltry 755 runs, 10th best in the Johnson. But the Boise pitching staff is elite, and if they can manage just a few runs, well, upset could be back on the table, boys.
It could happen, too. Outfielder Aires Penharanda has had a big fall from a 4.5WAR season last year. Likewise Cinema Jones. First sacker Alfonso Rubio has under-performed, but has proven pop. In a short series anything is possible, and if a couple of these guys find the lighting to add to the mix, I can see Boise making waves.
They’ll need to, also, because going against a Blazer offense that includes six guys who hit 20 homers is going to require some lightning. (All right, Bastiao Fardos only had 19. Big whoop. AT the end of the day, perhaps the best weapon Boise will have is their lefty-leaning rotation—though that’s only a small remedy because guys like Lineu Aldo and Matthew Reilly have had good moments against the platoon advantage.
The wild card, though, is that both teams pitching staffs seem to be a little winded. A quick glance makes me wonder if we’ll see some interesting fiddling with rotations and/or hooks. I think that opens the door for Boise a bit further than normal. Part of that thought is that I’ve seen GM Joe Lederer working along those lines before, whereas I’m not as familiar with Montreal’s Douglas Aiton.
So I’m projecting it here: Boise beats Montreal five games, and in a barn-burner that hinges upon a major pep-talk that off-roster leader Dennis French gives during a rain delay.
