What moves did the San Antonio Outlaws make this off season?
Key Free-agent signings/Rule 5/Waivers:
• 3B Alex Ramírez(2 yr/$28.2M)
• 1B Ricardo De Jesús(3 yr/$25M)
• RP Owen McKelvey(3 yr/$14.4M)
• RP Lorenzo de' Medici(3 yr/$12.6M)
• SS Shawn O'Bagy (3 yr/$7.3M)
• IF Zi-fu Huang (Rule 5)
Key Departures:
• SP Brody Picot(3.5 WAR)--FA
• RP Rickey Taylor(0.4 WAR)—Non-tendered
• RP Cristián Chávez (0.3 WAR)--FA
• RP Patrick Wood (0.1 WAR)—Non-tendered
There are a lot of similarities between the San Antonio Outlaws and my own San Fernando Bears. Most obviously, both cities start with the Spanish word for “saint”. But diving deeper into the numbers, we can see that the 2054 Outlaws and Bears both had the same team wOBA, .310, and the same team ERA, 4.76.
The only key member of the 2054 Outlaws team lost this offseason was Brody Picot, who leaves behind 232.2 innings that need to be absorbed by the 2055 rotation. As of this writing Picot remains a free agent, perhaps a commentary on his propensity to give up the longball (career 1.5 HR/9). Otherwise, San Antonio protected their roster flexibility by letting some mediocre relievers depart.
On the acquisition side, San Antonio was busy adding several players to modest multi-year contracts. Especially after considering the Frontier Division’s run scoring environment, the Outlaws were not a good offensive team in 2054. In response, they added three starting-caliber players to their infield mix, including two former Sacramento Mad Popes. Ramirez has been so consistent for so long that giving him two years doesn’t bother me, and the De Jesus signing looks like pretty good value. I question whether O’Bagy can bat .274 again, but shortstop is such a shallow position league-wide and his contract price is small enough I can’t criticize the signing.
The Outlaws backfilled their bullpen with two of the best targets available on the free agent market. McKelvey yo-yos up and down from year-to-year but he was darn good in 2054. And I’d question giving him three years (including the player option) but de' Medici is like the relief pitcher version of Alex Ramirez.
I wish some of the elder veterans were one-year contracts to make them easier to trade if San Antonio isn’t in contention, but they targeted good if not great players and didn’t have to commit significant funds.
Kurt Imber off-season grade: B
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Players to watch
Team MVP?
Sakutaro Kawano, SP: Alex Ramirez has been so consistent that I was tempted to pick him, but I can’t overlook the potential for Sakutaro to go supernova. The 27 year-old starting pitcher threw 222 innings last season and tied his career best ERA+. If he takes another small step forward and the defense behind him improves he has the talent to be one of the best pitchers in the league.
Most likely trade candidate?
Alex Payne, SP: I don’t expect the Outlaws to be in the hunt for the pennant in the most competitive division in the Brewster, so in reality most of their veteran players should be potential trade chips. Several of those players’ contracts include opt-outs or player options that will limit their appeal on the trade market, meaning they’ll only be viable trade candidates if they play much better than they did in 2054. No such guessing is required with Payne, who only has one year remaining under contract at an economic $3.1M, and he pitched well enough to accumulate 3.4 WAR last season.
Most likely to take a step back this season?
Shawn O’Bagy, SS: There weren’t a lot of overachievers on the 70-game winning San Antonio squad last year, so I’ll make the easy call of guaranteeing Shawn O’Bagy doesn’t achieve a WAR of 2.7 with his new team. His outlook is that of a part-time player anyways so I don’t think this should be a major concern.
Who has the most to lose (or gain) this season?
Patrick Strolz, LF: Strolz is talented—he has a 10 contact rating—and flashed his potential when he slashed .348/.387/.529 in 2053 on his way to accumulating 4 WAR. He regressed to a .299 BA in 2054 with much less power. A GBC import, Strolz has a $15M salary and a player option after this season. If he plays well enough the 29 year-old can put himself back on the free agent market in search of another large contract. Anything short of a good season and he’ll have no choice but stick around for another year at $15M. Billy McKay also possesses a 2056 player option, but he’s been a more consistent performer in the Brewster for longer and only makes $9M so he is more likely to opt-out.
Most likely to have a bounce-back season?
Majid bin Husam , 1B: Rather than Strolz I’m taking ‘Big Papi’. Bin Husam’s best season came in 2049 at the tender age of 21 when he put up a .285/.380/.510 season with 3.3 WAR. He’s been mostly mediocre since, but he’s entering his age prime season and has all the ratings needed to have a big year. His plus intangibles further boost my confidence.
Likeliest to outperform their projection?
Kent Pickford, SP: Statistically speaking, with almost three years of service time and a career 5.84 ERA, Pickford doesn’t have much going for him. He’s allowed at least 40 home runs two years in a row and he walks too many batters. But the scouting report tells a different story. With 15 current stuff, Pickford should be extremely difficult to make contact against. And although his currently rated 6 movement will still spell trouble with the long ball, that’s an improvement from when he debuted and the scouts think his ultimate potential is an 8 in that category. Fully developed, he could be one of the best starting pitchers in the Brewster.
Rookie most likely to make an impact?
Bradford McBearett, C: San Antonio is slated to start the season with Brewster veteran Calvin Johnson getting most of the starts behind the dish and Trevor Haye as his backup. Johnson recently turned 34 and has seen his WAR production fall under 2 each of the last two seasons. Haye doesn’t look like anything more than a backup. That means an injury to either player could clear the way for playing time for their second best prospect, Bradford McBearett. McBearett is a solid defender whose offensive ratings are above average for a catcher. Much younger than his competition last year, his AAA slash line of .267/.310/.363 indicated he wasn’t quite ready for the show. He was better in AA the year before and at his young age his production could catch up to his ratings at any point.
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How good is the Outlaws farm system?
No. 1 prospect: Shoin Yoshida (#13 overall)
Yoshida came out of nowhere as an international scouting discovery. When he first signed, his power and eye potential was only 6 in each category. Today, those potential ratings are 10 and 9, respectively. Yoshida projects as a corner outfield slugger who plays solid enough defense and makes enough contact for those areas of his game to not hold him back. Having only played in Rookie ball, we shouldn’t expect to see the 21 year-old prospect for at least a couple more years.
Organization’s ranking: No. 14
Keep in mind OOTP ranks farm systems based only on top 100 prospects. San Antonio has three such players: the previously mentioned Shoin Yoshida and Bradford McBearett, as well as #73 overall prospect Abdul-Mujib bin Majdy. Bin Majdy looks overrated to me, and the Outlaws system really drops off from there. According to Prospect Pipeline, the organization only has 10 players ranked in the top 500. I couldn’t find a player I wanted to call my favorite sleeper prospect.
What to expect from the Outlaws this season?
Kurt Imber season projection: 77-85
As mentioned, the Outlaws didn’t lose much production from last year’s vintage and most of the talent in their lineup had disappointing seasons. With a refortified lineup and bullpen, as well as several high potential arms in their rotation, I think San Antonio plays better in 2055. I could even see them playing better than .500, but it’s difficult to envision this being a playoff team in such a tough division.
Bold prediction:
Rule 5 pick 2B Zhi-fu Huang and org depth SS William James Westwood combine for more WAR than the sum of shortstops Shawn O’Bagy and Jeremy Owbridge. Owbridge’s defensive ratings really should limit him to 2B.
