What moves did the Robins make this off season?
Free-agent signings/Rule 5:
• CF Po-Sin Shi(3 years/$10,400,000)
• SS Hal Thorne(1 year/$1,200,000)
• SP Hoaka Etana (Rule 5)
• SP Jose Hernandez (Rule 5)
• SP Chad Keever (Rule 5)
• SP Adrian Kraft (Rule 5)
• SP Luis Perales (Rule 5)
Trades:
• Acquired IF Jorge Lugo from Rocky Mountain for OF Chris McFadden
Notable Departures:
• SP Jorge Diaz(2.3 WAR)
• SP Arnold Cantrell(1.3 WAR)
• LF Pancho Casta(2.3 WAR)
Brooklyn had a relatively quiet yet, good off season. After posting a combined -50 ZR in their middle infield last year, that looks much stronger, with Thorne and Lugo likely taking over at shortstop and second base. As good as Pete Brace’s bat was last year, they can’t afford a second baseman with a negative 20.3 ZR. In the outfield, McFadden was an -11 ZR center fielder last year, and the signing of Shi to replace him in center should be a 15 run difference alone on the defensive side.
Morales Jr. continues to grow at the plate, but likely will have to shift to first base in the near future as his ability to play third is questionable. With that shift, the team likely can play Geloran at third base, where he has a much easier time than at shortstop last year(-30.4 ZR).
On the mound, the team was as active as ever in the rule 5 draft, selecting all starting pitchers, some of which likely will end up being solid bullpen options for the squad. The team is looking to replace Jorge Diaz, Al Colbert, and Arnold Cantrell from the pitching staff just to name a few, although all had ERA’s in the high 4’s to low 5’s (which can partially be blamed on the defense).
Justin Niles off-season grade: B+
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Players to watch
Team MVP?
Ernest Mcbride, 1B/DH: While most eyes are on the future in Brooklyn. Meaning they are watching Clulow and Morales, don’t overlook Ernest Mcbride. Mcbride struggled to hit with his typical power last year, only hitting a career low 26 home runs. I think he could get back to his typical 40 home run campaign this season, which would go a long ways for Brooklyn.
Most likely trade candidate?
Pete Brace, 2B: Pete Brace looks like a man without a position currently on this team, despite his plus bat. Brace has proven he can hit, but he just wasn’t able to consistently handle the glove last year in Brooklyn. He has $52,900,000 remaining on his deal, so he might be tough to move, but Brooklyn should continue to try, or quickly teach him to play third base and move on from Geloran Jr.
Most likely to take a step back this season?
Nobody: I honestly have nobody for this spot. I looked through Brooklyn’s squad top to bottom and did not find a single player that I think terribly overachieved last season.
Who has the most to lose (or gain) this season?
Neill Fenomore, SP: Fenomore is sitting on 2 consecutive team options after this season, that would pay him a combined $22 million dollars. Is he the 2-3 ERA guy as he showcased the prior 2 years before joining Brooklyn, or is his 4.94 ERA from last season his typical showing? His BABIP last year was almost 50 points higher than his career average, so he has a chance to give Brooklyn a second thought on declining those options.
Most likely to have a bounce-back season?
Stephen Geloran Jr., MIF: There were A LOT of choices here, but this one sticks out to me. Geloran had a .266 BABIP last year, which is second worst of his career (only behind, 2053). The difference in every year before? He wasn’t asked to play SS those years. I think if you get him off shortstop, he can focus more on the plate, and his batting and luck is going to improve (wouldn’t it be fun if OOTP really worked that way). I have Geloran swinging a full 3 WAR difference, going from -0.3 to 2.7 positive WAR this season.
Likeliest to outperform their projection?
Stephen Clulow Jr SP: With two full seasons in the majors, Clulow Jr. has a career -1.7 WAR and 6.05 ERA. This is the year that he turns that around at age 20. I expect Clulow to not only be the ace of the staff by season's end, but to have an ERA in the low 4’s, and to begin pitching like a former 1st overall pick is expected to perform. Let’s call 2055 the “coming out party” for Clulow, with flashes of greatness offset by rookie mistakes.
Rookie most likely to make an impact?
Hoaka Etana, P: I was going to say Prieto, but you have got to go with one of the Rule 5 Picks here. Koaka Etana looks like he has been ready to pitch in the big leagues for a while now, and gets his chance with Brooklyn. I expect Etana to compete for a starting rotation job in the spring, but worst case toss over 75 innings in the pen this season.
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How good is the Robin’s farm system?
No. 1 prospect: Isa Talib(#42 overall)
Talib is a few years away from being ready for big league action. He was a scouting discovery in November 2049 and, at age 21, has slowly made his way through the Robin’s organization. He is currently in AA, where he spent last season pitching horribly with a 7.89 ERA in 122 innings. Walks have been a concern with Talib early on his career. Expect better results this season if he is again pitching in AA come opening day.
Organization’s ranking: No. 22
Brooklyn is quite a ways down on the farm system ranking despite their low success over the past few seasons from the BBA team (last playoff appearance in 2045) . They have 2 top 100 prospects, the prior mentioned Talib, along with outfielder Wilson Prieto(#57). Prieto looks ready to go, so it will be interesting to see if he is their starting outfielder this season or if he is called up later in the year.
What to expect from the Robins this season?
Justin Niles season projection: 74-88
The Robins playoff contention window is not quite here yet, but should be approaching in the next season or two, assuming they are able to clear some salary and Clulow/Morales/Prieto develop as advertised. With that being said, on defense alone, they should pick up 6 wins this year. That along with their kids getting older, increases their win total by 10 wins for me, posting their best season since 2045.
Bold prediction:
In late June, Brooklyn finds itself in wildcard contention, and makes a move to attempt to stay in the race. They acquire an all-star, yet finish the season just short of the wildcard but at .500 with 81 wins.
