Your faithful correspondent is honored to look at the Boys from Boise in 2054, because we also penned the Boise 2053 preview. At the time we noted that the 'official' prediction for Boise was unlikely to occur:
Our view, in the end, held the day -- and then some. Not only did Boise not improve, they regressed, falling to 66-96 from 84-78, and to 7th place from 3rd place. Fans were not impressed, and Boise GM Woody Donahue quickly and astutely flipped Bernie to the Oysters, netting a return that arguably was better than what they'd given up for him. He also shipped out pricey SP Danny Leach to Rockville.Last year I wrote:The OOTP Supercomputer is quite high on Boise, predicting a 93-69 record -- good for second place and a likely wildcard slot. But from this vantage point, we think that may be overly optimistic. It's not clear that offense has seen any significant upgrade. And we are not certain the Spuds' extremely solid pitching -- especially the addition of Bernie Stuart -- is enough to account for a nine win improvement.
WHAT WENT WRONG?
The single biggest key to the Big Boise Bust in 2053 was the regression of two offensive players, 1B Pepe Madrid and 3B Gary Allen. Allen's drop off from '52 was pretty astounding:
Pepe's pooping was less dramatic but still painful:
Those two alone, ladies and gentleman, account for 12 of the 18 wins lost in the Boise regression.
NOW WHAT?
So now, with the regular season upon us, what can fans expect? Allen and Madrid are still on the club, of course, and so we reached out to GM Donahue for his thoughts:
The improvement in pitching should come in part from the new rotation. Hsuang-tsung Xú, Gavrilovich Mastinsky, and Brian Ioneki are returning, but will be bolstered by Donoahue's big free agent signing, SP Mauro Mendoza, who signed a 6-year contract worth a total of $57 million. Mendoza helped Mexico City win a championship in '52, throwing nearly 200 innings in the process. Boise is clearly hoping that he reclaims some of that success after a rough '53, and at the very least eats a ton of innings.Boise GM Woody Donahue wrote:Madrid should be fine, he could possibly bounce back this year. Allen looks like he just sucks now forever, so I'm not very hopeful there. But in any case, I need to make up that lost WAR in other areas, which is why I tried to focus more on improving the pitching this year.
Also battling for a rotation slot are 23-year old Logan Hill, acquired prior to '53 in a trade with Vancouver, and currently a top-25 prospect in the BBA, and 28-year old Elvin Hilliard, acquired in a December trade with Nashville. We're waiting to see if Hill or Hilliard take to the hill every fifth day.
The Boise bullpen features Harold Nothard returning as closer, though he could be challenged by the young reliever Adrian Fox. Boise's first round pick in '52 will be elevated to the bigs after a solid year in AAA in '53.
Other notable off-season moves include reaching agreement on a 6-year, nearly $60M extension with the Spuds' great young shortstop, Qutuz Mahdi. And the club signed FA catcher Rainer Scheffer to a reasonable 2-year, $7.3 million deal to supplant Baden Dutton and Juan Gonzalez as the team's chief backstop. Scheffer -- now on his eighth team in eight years -- should be of particular value in handling the young pitchers.
GET TO THE POINT!
What does this all up to? The Official OOTP Projection Machine, which proved quite faulty a year ago, is still optimistic about the Spuds, predicting a 78-84 record, an improvement of 12 wins over last season. Once again, we will take a more measured view, predicting an improvement of four wins for a 70-92 record.
However.... if Allen and Madrid bounce back, and if SP Mendoza reclaims his '52 glory, and if the young arms flourish... if the stars align in Boise, the computer's prognostication might prove on the mark. And fans will celebrate:
Nice writeup, love the charts!
