Hello and welcome to the 2054 preview of the Phoenix Talons! The often controversial team with a semi-reclusive owner who frequently disagrees rather vocally with decisions made by the governing board of the BBA might best be known for putting together amazing minor league squads, much to the delight of the fans in the cities of Surprise, Medicine Hat, Daytona, Traverse City, and of course, Toledo. The Liberty are currently still celebrating their third championship in the past four years and their tenth overall. It's quite the achievement, albeit a controversial one.
But that's not what we're here today to discuss. We're looking at the main team, which is no slouch itself. The Talons have gone to the playoffs two of the past three years, and the pre-season "experts" show it as being a contender in 2054 as well. Do I agree? Let's sink our claws into GM Sean Marko's lineup and see what we can discover…
The Good:
It doesn't matter that he's 37, until he proves otherwise, Steven Collins III is one of the best players in the game and a key pickup for Marko in 2052. Showing no signs of slowing down, he played in 154 of the team's 162 games, starting 150 of them, all at third base, so no taking time to be a DH or even more than a few Sundays off. He had 715 plate appearances and an eye-opening .342 batting average, even better than the .326 of 2052. Collins scored 122 runs to lead the Johnson, and his efforts were good for 7.4 WAR, also a league best. In the field, he had a range of 2.72 at the hot corner, with a rating of positive 5 and a defensive efficiency of 1.037. He even hit 23 home runs. If he can keep this up, he'll help the Talons maintain their winning ways.
On most teams, the catcher is a leader. But the Talons aren't most teams. Ichizo Sugiyama despises everyone around him almost as much as his general manager despises age limits. But the long-time Talon is not just blossoming as a talent behind the dish (negative 9 framing in 2051 all the way to positive 3.4 framing in 2053, to go along with a defensive efficiency of 1.107), he can hit as well, with a solid .272 batting average and 35 home runs, good for a WAR of 4.9. Those homers were second on the team to…
...left fielder John Molyneaux, who had 38. Going into his fourth year with the team, the 26 year old scouting discovery muscled his way past his older teammates in the minors to make the big league squad in 2051 and never looked back. He's already compiled 88 round-trippers, with a career OPS of .896 and 7 WAR. He's not the best fielder, with a career rating of -2.1 in left but the bat more than makes up for it at a less crucial fielding position.
Newcomer first baseman Aarnould Budding, a 34 year old veteran in the BBA (this is 14th year upcoming), rounds out the offensive punch. He had 20 HR for the Mad Popes in 2052, who clearly dropped him because of his annoying habit of clearing the bases instead of clogging them, then another 30 for Brooklyn in 2053. The long-time member of the Black Sox is generally good for 20-30 HR with a steady average in the .250 to .280 range, though he's had a few bad seasons. For 8.6 million on a one-year deal, it's a great way for the Talons to center their lineup. He's also a bad way to teach spelling.
Last in this group is newcoming starter, JAy Hodge. He comes from Des Moines, where he was 7-4 in 18 starts and could possibly be the ace of the squad. Hodge has 4 good pitches and one mediocre one, and a WHIP that hovers around 1.25. He doesn't strike out many batters, but he's better than anyone the Talons have had recently taking the mound every 5 days. At just 28 and signed to a long-term deal, it looks like Hodge will be an anchor, though if it goes south, he's a dead weight.
The Bad:
Generally speaking, if anything potentially dulls the claws of this team, it's going to be the starting pitching. Then again, it wasn't great last year (4.99 ERA as a team, with the lowest ERA among the starters being 4.57) and that didn't hurt them much, if at all. It's clear this team, like a few others in the BBA, is based around bashing the other team into submission, then having the bullpen bring the game home.
The Talons are counting on Damian Theophanous, formerly of the GBC team in Tokyo, to help bring some strength. He's got 5 good pitches and scouts love his stuff, movement, and control, and he showed that with an ERA around 4 in the past 3 seasons, which would make him easily the best Talon hurler had he been with the squad. His WHIP around 1.20 to 1.30 most years, also looks good. But the issue here is the "GBC to BBA" effect. Despite being a "major" league there's a mountain of strong evidence that says these players regress quite a bit when they come to the states. Still, at just 2.5 million, if he manages to be decent, he'll help lead the squad.
That's because the others are just so weak. Returning Bialy Musialowski has 5 pitches but only 2 good ones and probably belongs in a bullpen role. He's 28 so the growth and improvement chances are slim, and his 5.15 ERA and 1.41 WHIP along with no ability to strike anyone out isn't a great second starter. However, Emanuele Mercati and his 7.13 ERA is even worse. He's a strange one because he'd been solid for Madison in 2051/52, with a WHIP under 1.20. The Talons need him and his 10 million dollar salary to rebound.
It's hard to tell who will be the 5th starter, but 2-way player Don Jaramillo probably has the inside track, despite a 5.45 ERA in 33 games (28 starts) last year. In a neat baseball type stat, he he walked batters at the same rate as he gave up home runs (1.5).
The Uncertain
Who gets the ball in the 5-6-7 frames? While the back end of the bullpen is likely set with Tiernan O'Macken and Jose Arellano serving as effectively co-closers, as they did last year, from there it's a motley crew of players who started with ERAs of 4+ and gets uglier from there. Rookie Willie Turner might help in this regard (a closer in AAA with 20 saves), and as a bonus he's a lefty. However, he's already been shipped out of camp, which honestly strikes me as odd. But otherwise, I don't see a lot of talent here, but I do see a lot potentially blown saves, maybe even more than the 23 this collection of players had in 2053.
Who plays second and short? In spring, minor league invitee and all around utility player Creegan Corney is listed as the starter. He only played 2 games there in 2053 and never more than 42. His career zone rating is -5.7 there. That's a lot of missed outs for a pitching staff that mostly consists of ones who give up hits. Mike England on the other hand is a whiz at second, with a career rating of 65.1 and 2.0 last year. But he's also 37, has been playing in the GBC, and couldn't hit more than .234 in the past 4 years there. In the BBA, he's likely to be under .200, making him an almost automatic out. At short, long-time Talon Ian Patrick "Jethro Tull" Anderson similarly can't hit, batting just .203 in 2053, though again, with good defense (1.8 range last year and a career total of 54.6). It's not a stretch to be concerned that this duo might regress in the field as well as with the bat.
The Summary:
The Talons are a bit of an enigma because unlike most of the other BBA GMs, they don't talk as much about their strategy or post a lot of team news about how things are going. Every person is different and some are just less inclined to share. What the Talons do of late is win, consistently. They do it in a way that's also a bit different from the norm. If the team truly feels that the upcoming player classes are so poor, the tendency to rely on older players is likely a feature, not a bug, but one that comes at some risk. They also are asking a lot of their offense, which basically will likely have 2 near-certain outs every turn through the order, since the pitching staff doesn't appear – at least on paper – as being capable of stealing any games from the opposition.
This is a team designed to win 9-7, not 2-1. If any of their top hitters goes into an extended slump or gets hurt, I don't see them being able to keep sitting near the top of the Frontier Division. But if they can keep this formula working, it's sufficiently different from other teams to remain working, at least until the older players really start retiring. 2054 may be one of the last big years for this team – but it could also be the start of a downturn.
General prediction: 80 wins on the low end, 85 on the high end. A playoff spot wouldn't surprise me, but I see this team, as it stands now, just missing the mark, without the help of a trade or two to bolster the rotation and/or bullpen.
