2054 Chicago Black Sox Preview

[woods]

The Black Sox are in the ugliest part of their rebuild, having just completed a thorough teardown of their major-league team. They finished last year with a record of 59-103, a distant 8th place in the powerful Heartland division. One couldn’t possibly entertain any ideas that they’ll be contending for the playoffs this year. But that’s not the goal. The goal for this season is to plug enough holes in the roster to keep fans coming to the park, and to establish a good development environment for when their top prospects break into the show, which could be as soon as Opening Day (more on that in a moment).

Here’s what’s changed since last year.

Notable additions:
RF Edward Lake (FA)
IF/OF Carlos Gutiérrez (FA)
CF Jorge Rincón (FA)
RP Raúl González (MiL FA)
LF Garry Mihalsky (FA)
2B Rashad bin Hadad (Rule 5)
RP Joe Shaw (Rule 5)
OF Lao Kum (Rule 5)
SS Cisco Rodríguez (FA)
RP Mu’tazz Nazim (MiL FA)
SP Max Dawe (MiL FA)
SP Albert Krant (FA)

Losses (and 2053 WAR):
OF Manny Gómez (0.0)
RP Pedro Germán (1.0)
OF Hyeon-uk Hong (1.8)
IF Jesús Díaz (-0.4)
SP/RP Juan Guzmán (0.1)
CF Weaver Ripley (-0.1)
SP/RP Ricardo Negrete (0.3)
SP José Hernández (0.4)
OF Fernando Castillo (0.7)
RP Heng-zong Tang (-0.3)
SP Garrison Hewitt (0.0)
DH Ron Caldwell (0.0)
IF Beau Warwick (-0.5)

----

Rotation: Chicago fans have waited long enough (like, a year, but give them a break — Chicagoans are very impatient), and it’s finally time to see the fruits of this rebuild. The new era will begin with Dirk Bessi and Carlos Moya, who both appear ready to make their BBA debuts. The only question is whether Chicago will green-light their promotions, when there probably isn’t any rush to start their service clocks. Moya, 23 years old, probably has a better shot to make the Opening Day roster, while no one would fault Chicago for sending Bessi, still just 21, down to Triple-A for a bit more seasoning.

In any case, the pair will soon revitalize a Black Sox rotation which has, in recent years, been the laughingstock of the Frick League. Both are groundballers with high movement, which will play well in Chicago’s pitcher-friendly park.

Albert Krant, longtime stalwart of the Frontier, also joins Chicago on a cheap three-year contract to add a veteran arm to the rotation. I wouldn’t say he’s there to be a mentor, considering his poor work ethic and selfish attitude, but at least the man is dependable, throwing over 175 innings each of the last two seasons. And hey — maybe he’ll form a connection with fellow starter Makin bin Isma’il, who like Krant is selfish, lazy, and kind of an asshole. This could be a friendship in the making that serves to motivate the two pitchers in spite of themselves. Or things could get really, really, ugly in the clubhouse. Either way, it’ll be fun to watch.

Rounding out the rotation will be Malik bin Adnan, who has nasty stuff but a slight control problem, and Francisco Ortíz, a holdover from last season, and one of the only Black Sox pitchers who could consistently find the plate, so yeah, he gets to stay.


Bullpen: In the rare instances where Chicago had a lead at the end of a game last season, Mike Baker was tasked with the closer job, and he performed well, converting 19 of 23 save opportunities. He’s back in the same role this year, and that’s fine. You could do worse than a guy who throws 101 with elite movement.

We should also see the debut of Brick Pollitt this year, one of Chicago’s own former first-round picks. Chicago will likely experiment with him in different bullpen roles, but he’ll definitely get some high-leverage innings, possibly setting up for Baker.

The middle innings will be kind of a mixed bag, but Chicago has done well to develop and sign high-movement pitchers who should do well to limit damage. Daniel González, returning for the second year of a two-year contract, is great at inducing weak ground balls. And Bryce Sparks, who posted a sub-3.00 ERA as a rookie, will also be back for another round.

Finally, vying for a spot this spring will be Matuha Kalinda, the BBA’s #71 prospect, who has split his time between starting and relieving. The Black Sox like what they’ve seen from this kid since he came over from Sacramento as part of the Yogi Isam trade, and there could be a bullpen spot available for him if he shows he can match up with BBA talent.


Offense: The Black Sox lack the offensive superstar, but they don’t necessarily need one. Vinnie Vitale Stadium is a pitchers’ park with big gaps, and with the right types of hitters, guys who are skilled at hitting the ball into those gaps, they should be able to use their park to their advantage.

Though there’s another problem they need to fix first: The Black Sox were dead last in the BBA in walks last year, taking a free pass in only 6% of their total plate appearances. The result was a horrendous .301 on-base percentage, a big reason why they were second-to-last in the BBA in runs scored.

Left fielder Cordell Vaughn was supposed to be the guy who drew walks, extended at bats, and was generally a middle-of-the-order threat for the Black Sox. And he wasn’t that at all, barely hitting above replacement level last season. So Chicago decided to go out this winter and get another player exactly like him: Garry Mihalsky. Mihalsky is, on paper, exactly what the Black Sox need, coming off a season in the GBC in which he posted a .393 on-base percentage for Jerusalem, but with the conversion over to BBA-level competition, it feels like Mihalsky might just end up being another Vaughn.

If Mihalsky doesn’t move the needle, the Sox will look for increased contributions from Jeremy Starks and Anthony Moretti, two more of the long list of players netted by Chicago from the Isam trade. They’re both solid, with Moretti being the bigger power threat, while Starks is more of a slap-hitter with good gap power and potential to bat .300.

Super-utilityman Carlos Gutiérrez was a nice free agent pickup, because not only can he play every position on the field, but he can also hit. He’s not known for drawing walks, but his high batting average (a career mark of .299) will also improve Chicago’s on-base percentage by association. He’s also proficient in doing the little things, like bunting, and he’s a terrific baserunner.

There are also high hopes for catcher Ben Scott, the 10-year BBA veteran who had the best year of his career last season, and looks to still be improving.

In general, the Chicago offense will likely be a lot of moving parts, and playing the hot hands while dumping the ones who don’t pull their weight. They have tons of guys who play multiple positions, which means they can pretty much pick any nine guys and they’ll all find places to play. It seems like the plan might be to wait and see who rises to the occasion.


Defense: Improving the defense was a priority for the Black Sox this winter, after finishing with a combined -7.3 ZR a year ago. This wasn’t so terrible, but defense is such an important part of Chicago’s game, because their groundballer-heavy pitching staff is so dependent on having good fielders, so improvement really was essential.

So, as soon as free agency kicked off, they went out and paid for Cisco Rodríguez, an all-glove, no-bat infielder who had aged out of Montreal’s minor league system. He’ll be an improvement for sure, and his presence will give worse “shortstops” like Asil Çölasan more chances to play other positions, which will also help.

For the outfield, they signed Jorge Rincón, a 37-year-old veteran who still plays center field at an elite level. He should be a slight improvement defensively over Manuel de los Santos, who is also still around and can be plugged in as needed.

Still, putting all these guys in the lineup every day will not be good for Chicago’s offense. The challenge will be to find the right balance of competent fielders while still giving themselves a chance to score enough runs. And, well, if we all knew how to do that, we’d all be winning the Monty.


2054 prediction: When you consider the minor improvements across the board, and add on the fact that Chicago under-performed their Pythagorean record (65-97) by 6 games last year, I think it’s a very real possibility that they’ll improve by 10-15 games. Still, they’ll struggle to get on base enough to pose any sort of threat offensively. There will be a lot of low-scoring games, and Chicago will lose many of them.

So I’d put them at around 72-90, which is good progress! But more importantly, the first few pieces of the rebuild will establish themselves in the BBA, which will be the beginning of the future in Chicago.

[tylertoo]

This is great, thanks @woods! You set a high bar for when I write a Spuds preview. Thank you for previewing a dead-last team.

I have spent some time in the past week regretting not trying to flex Chicago's financial muscle by buying a big FA bat or two, since we have a shit-ton of cap space and budget room. But what good would that do? We'd score a few more runs, maybe win a few more games, but then be stuck with declining older guys on 5- or 6-year deals when the new young arms are more ready in a year or two.

So instead this season we'll have perhaps slightly improved defense, and a slightly improved rotation (nowhere to go but up on both counts) and, unburdened of any hefty contracts, still be in good financial shape despite declining ticket sales. Next year we'll jump into the deep end of the FA pool.

If we go from 59 to 72 wins as you predict, I'll be surprised and thrilled. In the meantime, the fact that we now have the 4th ranked farm system and 27 youngsters in the BBA top 500 is sufficient to keep me interested.

[Dington]

72 wins is very optimistic, but this was a great preview. The Sox have a very deep farm and should be contenders in a few years.

[Jwalk100]

Great breakdown and review of a team!

[neugey]

Great review! If my team was in the Frick this would low-key be a scouting report!