2053 Chicago Black Sox Preview

[Trebro]

The Black Sox have the unenviable position of trying to improve in a division that's tightly packed and fiercely competitive. They also face the problem - for 2053 at least - of having a younger team that's still developing and is likely to struggle to pull up to an over a .500 record. Which makes the ownership's demand of achieving a winning record a tall order for General Manager Mike Dunn. Let's hope for his sake it's not an offer Dunn can't refuse.

The Good:

2B Scott Torres is only 26 and displayed some great power in 2051 with 35 home runs and amazing defense (ZR of 17.9), though his overall OPS was a more pedestrian .769 due to a lack of other extra base hits (just 11 doubles) and a lowish batting average. But he took a step back in 2052, when an injury too two months of the season. Still, he has extreme promise and is looking for a big arbitration payday, though it might not be with the Black Sox, as he's rumored to be available. A lot of how the Sox season goes will be determined by if the injury was a bump in the road to a great career OR something that takes him down to above-average status.

C Ben Scott was signed from Calgary in the off-season after a career year of 21 HR in 2052, 20 doubles, 81 RBI, and .806 OPS. On a sweet 2 year deal if he keeps that up, he's a good trade chip to a contender OR someone who can help improve by helping ensure a few extra wins this year - if he can match the 2052 numbers.

1B Michael Mackeon had a breakout power season in 2052 as well, though in Black Sox, er, sox. 30 HR, .277 average, and an OPS of .813 makes him a really good option at first base or designated hitter. He strikes out a lot (over 100 times a year) and the drop in doubles from 43 to 26 is concerning, but he'll help anchor a lineup for Dunn for at least a few more years, if he wishes.

The Bad:

The Black Sox Outfield. Fernando Castillo is the best of the bunch here, but he's also 36. Expecting him to belt 40 HR and slug over .500 again is extremely unlikely, but if he can keep close to his 2052 numbers (.285 average, 28 HR), he's a decent player to have. IF he weren't making 17 million a year. (See Thum on my YS9, but with a worse contract). If Castillo starts a decline, things get rough fast. The Black Sox other primary outfielders, De Los Santos and Vaughn, are the type you wouldn't mind having as your #4/#5 guys. Starting them, especially De Los Santos, puts a strain on the lineup card. If Vaughn hits steadily, they can make this work. But if you get the one who hit .190 in 2050, it could be a long season. I'm probably not giving enough credit to De Los Santos for his defense, but that's because...

The Ugly:

The starting pitching. It's going to be rough when the #1 starter, Malik bin Adnan, had an ERA of 5.50 last year (and FIP of 5.29, so it wasn't his fielders). #2 man Juan Guzman started 1 BBA game before this season, working mostly in relief to a 4.67 ERA. He had a 5.36 ERA in London in 2051 as a regular on the starting mound. Pedestrian WHIP around 1.5 in the GBC means closer to 1.75 in BBA play. Ono is just 24 and will have growing pains, though he pitched well in AAA - as a reliever. What will happen on the 3rd trip through the lineup? The same applies to Negrete, who at 28 is trying to be a BBA starter for the first time.

Summary:

If the trades Mike made and will undoubtedly make during the season keep pushing the team younger and more promising, with the cash saved from an affordable core, this could be a team poised to strike when the top of the Heartland (Nashville) needs to retool. If the starters pitch better than I think they will and if the Black Sox get players like Castillo to keep producing while seeing bounceback from Torres and a few others, this is a team you can't count out. They might hang in there long enough to get closer to 75 wins and be in the talk for the final wild card until the length of the season catches up to them sometime in August. But I think it's more likely there's just too many "gotta have this break right" to work. I think about 68-72 wins is more realistic, with a drastic jump forward in 2054 into contender status. For Black sox fans that's going to be hard to take after going since 2048 without a playoff appearance, but they just need to hang on a bit longer. This team, once it matures in a few areas and gets the outfield improved, will be a lot of fun to watch.

But for now it's going to be a bit of a rough ride. But GM Dunn knows it and will act accordingly, using this year to build.

Prediction: 70-92, probably last again but with high hopes for 2054 and beyond.

[tylertoo]

Spot on write-up, Rob, thanks for doin it! 70 wins sounds about right. We harbor no thought of contending this year and are primarily focused on nurturing the young starters at AAA (Bessi, Kalinda, Moya, Pollitt) so they become a strong ML rotation in two years. Until then, this will be ugly indeed, and I only hope the new owner tempers his murderous ways.