2049 Phoenix Talons
What Happened Last Year?
Last season in this space, we predicted 86 wins and a playoff miss. The Talons had a Pyth prediction of 87 wins, but only tallied 85 victories, so we'll call that pretty much spot on. We also said that the Talons would be eliminated earlier in September, but, true to form, the club embraced tradition and waited until the final Saturday of the season to lose out on the final Johnson League Wild Card spot. We should have known!
And, much like last year, the Talons had the second lowest team ERA in the JL, led by the BBA's best bullpen. The triumvirate of Tiernan O'Macken, Gilberto Sosa, and Adergazoz Ouakili combined for over 10 WAR among them. One significant thing the Talons did during last season was make trades to shore up the middle infield, even parting with one of their precious bullpen arms for the privilege. However, the offense still fell short, finishing near the bottom of the pack in the JL for nearly every stat except home runs. When is the franchise going to learn that you can't just chase one dimensional sluggers?
Key Losses
Gone is LF Ramiro Hernandez, a typical Phoenix player: Power, but middling defense, no speed, and a career OBP of only .311. Still, he represented 2.2 WAR last season that had to be replaced. Another loss, potentially significant, is former BBA phenom Don Smith, who was released just one week after executing his 16M player option. The Talons point to his diminished skill and desire to open cap space, which hamstrung the team all last season. And they may be right about the skills: Smith is now only a 50 rated pitcher with a particular weakness against RH batters; plus he remains unsigned by anyone as of this writing.
Key Additions
So, the Talons had to replace their left fielder, right? After some very public frustration with losing out on high profile free agents like Dennis French, the club went all out and made offers to two corner outfielders, Jorge Gutierrez and Andrew Torres. Only problem is, both of them accepted, and now the club has too many COFs and nowhere to play them all. Perhaps one of them can DH if (when?) Guzman leaves town.
Other minor additions include C Pedro Figueroa, who will help split catching duties, and SP/RP Lando Klomp, a veteran name who will flesh out the bullpen and provide some insurance for the Talons' famously fragile rotation. The Talons also picked up RHB first baseman Talbot Purcell in the Rule V draft, however he has been suffering from blurred vision and has only played 10 games this spring.
Pitching Summary
So how could the team get rid of a player like Don Smith, who was worth 25 WAR to the club in just over 6 and a half seasons? Turns out, one of the club's famed relievers looks to step up into a full time starter role. LHP Jeremy Smith, who had already served as an "opener" for the club the last two seasons, showed up to camp with a much improved changeup, a testament to his work ethic and adaptability. He'll join a rotation once again led by future HOF Feliciano Rafael (62.5 career WAR), who was denied his team option but signed a budget friendly deal to finish his career with the Talons. The rotation will once again be filled out by Tomas Ramirez, Albert Krant, and the one and only Roy Minty. All three are slightly above average starters at best, but they seem to do OK in the Talons' park.
The bullpen is once again projected to be among the best in the BBA, led as always by the three headed monster of O'Macken, Sosa, and Ouakili. But what about further down the depth chart? Falling in right behind the big three is Jason Clark, a righty with great skill vs LHB and a killer attitude to match. On any other team he'd be the closer, hands down. In addition, Lando Klomp will surely provide some good veteran innings, and last season's competent rookie Cadao Cu looks to have a secure spot. As for bullpen slot seven, however, a few questions remain. Surely the club can find someone among the many minor leaguers they've signed through the years. Luis Alonso looks to have the inside track after a good spring so far.
Lineup Summary
Pedro Guzman is the best hitter on the team by a mile, and one of the best in the BBA. He has led the circuit in home runs three of the last five seasons and owns a career OPS of .924. However, as a strict DH, his utility to the team is limited, despite the gaudy offensive totals. Still, 22 WAR the last 5 seasons without playing a single game in the field is nothing to sneeze at. Gutierrez and Torres, the new COFs, will join RF Donald Miller in a battle for playing time among two slots. Glove only CF Tommy Bathgate rounds out the outfield to add to his collection of negative WAR seasons.
The infield is anchored at the corners once again by veteran 1B Liann-wei Mao and longtime Talon 3B Pankratz Isekenmier. Mao has impressed with 7 WAR over the last two years, but Pankratz can barely manage 2 WAR anymore. One thing that Talons fans will look forward to is full seasons from new double play combo Jorge Aranda and Dick Walton, who bring 10-rated defense and a combined 6 WAR between them last year. Catching duties will be split by Pedro Figueroa and defensive specialist Warrington Gillette, winner of the JL Zimmer award at C the last two seasons.
Farm System Summary
32nd in the BBA? I've already spent too much time on this section.
Overall
Really running out of things to say here. We'd quote the definition of insanity, but you already know it from watching this team the last 5 seasons. Is the club too loyal to its players, sticking with them even as their value diminishes? Afraid to pull the trigger on big moves after disasterous trades like the one for Aki Kondo a few years back? The inability to draft and sign good young prospects? Who knows. The famously obtuse GM is alternatively snarky and silent for months at a time.
A tremendous pitching staff. Below average offense. Horrible finances and farm system. They either don't know when to rebuild, don't know how to, or are afraid to. Maybe all three.
In fact, who is more insane, the team itself or this author, who continues to write previews about them? We'll go with repetition winning out here and keep writing Talons previews though.
Prediction
The BNN has the club at 91-71, second in the JL Frontier behind Las Vegas and well within the Wild Card picture along with Calgary, Charlotte, and Jacksonville. Optimistic? Of course.
But you know what? Hey, this year they're gonna do it! 88 wins and the playoffs! You heard it here first!
We have no idea why we just wrote that, but what the hell, right? If we're wrong it'll get blamed on some crazy GM move during the season anyway.
