2048 Portland Lumberjacks

[chicoruiz]

Okay then… this is supposed to be the year. After a long string of sub-.500 seasons, the preseason prediction model has the Lumberjacks going from 90+ losses to 90+ wins, a feat that would certainly earn GM Chris Wilson some “GM Of The Year” consideration.

What do the prognosticators see in the ’48 Lumberjacks? Let’s take a deeper dive…

STARTING PITCHING: Well, they’re all young, they’re all cheap, and they’re all pretty good. The rotation starts with Ken Sparks (22), a former 2nd overall pick, who zipped through the minors in short order and earned an all-star berth and a 2nd place finish in the Newcomer of the Year voting. Then comes lefty Chris Thompson (23), who was only a half-step behind Sparks as a spectacular rookie. Groundball inducer Frank Walbourne (23) slots in as the #3 guy; he led the league in fewest homers surrendered per nine innings, and the arrow is pointing up for him. Steve Warren (23) was really good in ’46, somewhat less so in ’47, but still a 2.7 WAR pitcher with some upside. Antonio Garcia started 17 times last year, but a couple of hot prospects, Felix Vidaca and Randolph Marable, may well push him into a full-time relief role.

BULLPEN: Lorenzo de’Medici, as the only pitcher on staff over 28, will again play a mentorship role to the young arms. His days as closer ended a few years ago, but he’s adapted well to a middle relief role. Matt Alicia (24) saved 21 for the Lumberjacks last year and will probably keep that role. The rest of the bullpen will be made up of a number of talented guys in their mid-20s. If I named them all, I’d be making links all day, but I did want to mention one, Jimmy Bumble, just because he has a wonderful name right out of Charles Dickens.

CATCHING: Oh dear… The celebration of Portland’s great talent will now take a brief pause. Reggie Leeper and Ramon Camacho are fine defensive catchers who may have trouble achieving a batting average north of the Mendoza line. I’m guessing the plan here is to platoon them at the start of the year and see if one or the other gets even marginally hot. Scouts at least think Leeper can play; someone needs to get him believing it now.

1B-DH: We now resume our celebration of Portland’s great talent. Andrew Gallagher and Ernest McBride are two big-time middle of the order bats. McBride is one of the biggest sticks in the BBA, and is locked in through 2053 after coming over from Hawaii in free agency. Gallagher is good for 30+ homers in a given year, and is a slightly better fielder, but he’s a fragile guy who tends to hit the DL once or twice a year, so he may be better served in the DH spot.

2B: Joey O’Brien puts the ball in play and plays good defense at a number of positions. If that sounds to you more like the profile of a utility man than a starter, well… Joey is 31, so at this point what you see is probably what you get.

3B: Here’s hoping that Jorge Lugo’s 2048 looks more like his 2046 (2.9 WAR) and less like his 2047 (-0.8 WAR). He’s an excellent glove at third, but really you want more than a .583 OPS from the hot corner. Steve Geloran is a backup who has so far failed to live up to his ratings.

SS: I try to judge players based on their merits rather than their salaries, but it’s hard to ignore the 25 million smackers that Portland will be handing over to Wilson Andrade every year through 2052. A sensational performer at Charm City, Wilson walked into Portland, tripped over the threshold and fell flat on his face. Okay, I exaggerate- he wasn’t that bad, but 0.3 wins above replacement is probably not what Lumberjack management had in mind for that kind of money. He’s a good bet to rebound to his old level, which is crucial for Portland’s hopes.

LEFT FIELD: Wilson Alomar… Another Wilson; that’s one more than Tom Hanks had on that island with him. This one is a career .306 hitter with 178 homers- and he’s only 27. And he’s a lefty hitter, so he can split up McBride and Gallagher in the lineup perfectly.

CENTER FIELD: Jorge Lopez is the leader in the clubhouse for this spot, but he hasn’t done anything that would make you want to hand him the job on a platter. The current options are, like Jorge, lefties, so the suspicion is that the Lumberjacks will be scouring the waiver wire and FA lists over the next week or so, looking for a right-handed alternative.

RIGHT FIELD: The stats for Millard Younger tell the tale of a talent in decline but he’s still just 30 so he could turn things around. Management better hope so, because he’s signed through 2050. His profile lists him as “outspoken” with a low intelligence rating; why are there so many of those kinds of people in the world? There are a couple of UMEBA guys behind him, but the job is Millard’s to lose.

CONCLUSION: It’s an axiom that the most valuable asset a team can have is young pitching, and the Lumberjacks are crawling with it. The question is, can they get enough offense? They have a few seasons left before all those young rotation guys will start to want to get paid, but the clock is ticking. The hope is that rebounds by Andrade, Lugo and Younger will be enough. I like this team, but I’d feel a lot better if they could get league average production at catcher, second base, or even center field. But the minor league system is pretty barren of hitting prospects, so if they’re going to make that happen they may have to dip into their deep reserve of good young arms and enter the trading market. It wouldn't be the worst idea in the world...

[7teen]

Thanks for the preview. You’ve hit the nail on the head. Good young pitching. Ton of question marks on the offense.

[scottsdale_joe]

Nice review.
Good job.

[CTBrewCrew]

From 90+ losses to 90+ wins in a single season? That would get my vote for GM of the year!

[7teen]

From 90+ losses to 90+ wins in a single season? That would get my vote for GM of the year!

GMs of the year don't let top 25 prospects walk in the Rule 5.