2047: Surfer Dudes Preview

Team, Division, League, Playoff, and all other comprehensive previews go here.
User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19807
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 1981 times
Been thanked: 2900 times

2047: Surfer Dudes Preview

Post by RonCo » Fri May 28, 2021 2:24 pm

Image
In 2044, Long Beach Surfer GM Stephen Lane decided he’d had enough of losing. After checking the coffers, he went on Free Agent spending rampage that had several “grow from within” pundits chuckling and doubting. Lane had the last laugh, however, as the Surfers stepped up from 67 wins the year before (and 58 the year before that) to win 100 games, which was good enough to take the Pacific Division. They repeated the feat a year later, winning 90 games.

2046, however, saw the piper paid, and the team from Long Beach wiped out to the tune of only 59 wins—a drop off that probably hasn’t happened since Omaha went from 90 down to 63.

Undaunted, Lane seems to have gone back to the well again, dropping cash to bring in 31-year-old Edwin Gilliam, 29-year-old Dax Norris, 33-year-old Hedde Veenman, and 29-year-old Renato Lacerda. Will it work? Well, time will tell, of course. The results in the spring were inconclusive, but then, that’s Spring Training for you.


THE ROTATION:

A lot of the near-term future will rely on the rotation. Duh, right? But in Long Beach’s case, the statement is even more fervent. Danya Tchekanov is, of course, Danya Tchekanov. It’s arguable that he’s just entering his real peak, and that bodes well. The multi-faceted Belarusian is nicknamed “Satan’s Whelp” for a reason. If he can step back to form from a tough 2046 (something you can say for a lot of these guys), he’ll compete for a second Nebraska.

The league seemed to adjust to Del Willis last year, but not really. He posted a 4.18 ERA in 2046 after a stronger 3.92 in 2045. But his FIP—which improved from 5.09 to 4.11—tells a different story. Or at least it has some folks suggesting the issue with Surfer pitching was more about defense than arms. We shall see. That said, the Surfers need Willis to bounce back in order to make waves this year. Something you’d have to think the 24-year-old could manage.

They also need a better effort from 26-year-old Ernesto Delgado, who had ugly numbers for both ERA (5.37) and FIP (5.29). Like most of the league last year, his K-rate was down, which is concerning but not as concerning his HRA rate, which exploded to 2.0/9. Until then, though, Delgado’s career path looked like a steady-Eddy kind of cycle, good for 3.5 WAR down in the #3 spot. If this is still true, the Surfers are in good shape. Otherwise, the idea of 58 wins seems in the cards. See what I mean? Who can tell what’s real with this staff?

Add in veteran Ken Walter, who was brought in late last year. He’s a pricey guy these days, and several years past his Nebraska-winning days. Look for him to start in the #4 slot, but get really babied all year long. Or at least as much of the year as his surgically repaired elbow and surgically repaired knee will last. The good news is that those injuries are well past him. The bad news is that he’ll turn 34 this season, and 34-year-old bodies have a way of remembering the past. Still, if John John is available, he’s still a solid guy to slide into the #4 or #5 slot, and as a clubhouse guy he seems to be a solid choice.

The addition of Gilliam late in Spring Training could push Walter to the #5 slot, which would probably be a good thing.

We’re not sure who is going to get the nod for the #6/depth slot. It could be young Manuel Dominguez, but we’re going to guess it’ll be the equally young Robin Johnson, who is 23 and had a nice enough season in AAA last year.

Assessment: This is a rotation that could be really solid, but there are too many question marks to simply mark that down and go on. The top of the top is prime beef. The middle is good, but with “show me” question marks, and the bottom is simply “show me.” In addition, there doesn’t seem to be much depth in the organization. But the rotation is the strength of the team, and let’s grade this out as a B- for now, with a note saying the Stephen’s team is well behaved and shows potential to grow.


THE BULLPEN:

The Surfers have a long history of leaning on their bullpens, so it’s perhaps no surprise that 25-year-old Luis Manuel Rodriguez led the league with 103 appearances last year. His 4.91 ERA, however, was a full two runs worse than the year prior. Welcome to Stephen Lane’s Nightmare. Rodriguez is back, and will be the anchor of the pen again. (Let’s say it all together…) If he returns to form, things will be all right—especially with the addition of Lacerda, who has been a plus-plus guy for almost a decade. If Jesus Rios can duplicate his 2046 effort (there's a new one for you), the team will have three pretty reliable guys to lean on. The team is likely hoping that 26-year-old Raul Alvarez can go back to his 2045 (yes, 2045) form, but the lefty has struggled for two seasons now, and fans patience is wearing thin. I could be wrong, but I’m not going to be betting on him in 2047.

And that leads to the problem. The bullpen is not particularly deep.

Christos Tippleton might make some headway at times. Robinson Perez and Bryce Emery might get some people out. But are you betting your house on any of them?

No. I think not.

Eric Hughes is still a lefty-killer of the highest order. But he’ll have to face at least a few RHB, and his FIP- against RHB last year was +351. Seriously. That hurts. Just for fun, though, he struck out 27 of the 41 LHB he faced. So there’s that.

Assessment: I think Long Beach is going to have to do some of their patented bullpen magic to make this group work out. It’s solid at top, but gets threadbare quickly. Let’s call it a C- as a group.


The Lineup:

To be direct, well, I just don’t see how this team is going to score a lot of runs. They ended up 13th in the Frick last year, and I’m not sure they are going to get much better this. The bright spots are the addition of Dax Norris in the outfield, and the likely debut of Mike O’Hanley, who came to the Surfers in a deal with Seattle late last year. O’Hanley projects to be a solid platoon hitter from the left side of the plate, though his discipline isn’t great. Manuel Aguilar, Jr. at 1B will team up with O’Hanley to make right-handed pitching suffer, but neither can hit a lefty, and their likely platoon mates don’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of most others.

Third base will likely see the return of Mario Barrera, who is like peanut butter—solid and useful, but perhaps not something you want every single day. Cary Brackett can play second base, but no one is expecting a lot of production from his bat at this point. He’s young, though, so he could surprise. Shortstop will likely be a collection of Francisco Otero, Arturo Ahumade, and Francisco Martinez—all three are glove-first, silent bat kind of players.

The good news is that Norris raises the quality of the outfield. The bad news is that Norris raises the quality of the outfield. If 23-year-old prospect Suk-min Cho was ready, there might be some better news here, but despite a respectable camp, most insiders suggest that Cho can’t go. At least right now. This means the outfield will likely be a patchwork of guys, all of who are interesting but none of which are the kind of players you’d expect to be leading a playoff team.

And, let’s face it, trying to fix a leaky catcher position by bringing in a guy from the UMEBA (Veenman) is more than a bit unnerving.

So, yeah, scoring runs will be a bit difficult—and given that the defense will be meh, you’ve got to wonder if the club’s pitchers might band together and storm the front office for some help.

Assessment: Perhaps the offense will actually improve over last year, but obviously, I’m not a fan. I mean, they were 13th in the league in runs scored. Perhaps this gang will wind up 11th. Cue the confetti, right? Let’s call it a C- and have it over with—though to be honest, my first thought was to call it a D or D+. Perhaps I’m just feeling generous, or maybe I just want this team to graduate and get out of my classroom.


PROJECTION: I don’t think the team is going to lose as many games in 2047 as they did in 2046, but that shouldn’t be hard to project. The rotation should regress back up to mean a bit, and if anyone can run a bullpen, it’s Stephen Lane. But depth is a problem, and the offense is going to need to surprise me to make me get very excited about them. So, let’s say 66-68 wins and have at it.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

Return to “Previews”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests