UMEBA preview for 2045

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allenciox
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UMEBA preview for 2045

Post by allenciox » Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:59 pm

Ok, this first post will cover the non-pitchers, I will add a second post for the pitchers, but I wanted to get this out before the first sim, and I have been working on this for many hours already and so I want to get something out.

Following is a table. let me explain the table and how it is generated. For each position, I have used the Lineups for all the teams and chosen the player who is listed both vR and vL for each position on each team. Using the "sortable statistics" for the whole league, I have then created a spreadsheet of the results that show all the relevant ratings for each of those players. I have calculated an average "offense" for each player both vL and vR, with the following equation: .47*CON+.09*GAP+.2*POW+.24*EYE. I have then entered all the offense values for each player and the defensive values for them in another table, which shown below. I have then calculated average Offense vL and Offense vR for each team as a simple average across all positions. I have calculated the average defense vR and defense vL by taking .22*SS+.2*CF+.16*2B+.1*3B + .1*LF + .1*RF + .08*C + .04*1B as the overall defense. I have calculated the OVR for each team based on .7*(.7*OFFvR+.3*OFFvL) + .3*(.7*DEFvR+.3*DEFvL).

These equations are not specifically calculated based on BBA or UMEBA data but do represent kind of an average of other regression analyses I have done on other types of leagues. This assumes a number of things that may or may not be accurate:

1. That the spring training lineups for each team (other than mine) are the same lineups that will be used in the regular season. Since Bucharest IS accurate and other teams less so, it probably overrates Bucharest in comparison.
2. It does NOT account for subs that are not in the starting lineups (except for catcher: two catchers are considered for each team (2:1 ratio even when no platoon is set up)) , that could make a small difference to the results.

BURTC1B2B3BSSLFCFRFDHAVGOVR
BEIOFFvR5.97.34.76.15.96.56.67.16.26.26
OFFvL6.26.15.76.15.66.87.15.36.16.11
DEFvR5.04.09.08.08.06.09.06.07.60
DEFvL5.09.09.08.08.06.09.06.07.606.63
BGHOFFvR5.77.05.97.14.75.55.15.66.65.91
OFFvL6.16.65.36.15.24.25.46.47.15.82
DEFvR5.42.08.06.08.011.09.08.07.98
DEFvL5.46.08.06.08.011.09.08.07.986.51
JEROFFvR6.56.65.95.83.66.16.26.07.66.04
OFFvL5.84.74.96.03.35.36.56.38.15.66
DEFvR6.34.05.06.09.08.011.08.07.94
DEFvL6.34.05.06.09.08.011.08.07.946.53
MANOFFvR5.87.35.75.24.66.86.97.56.26.22
OFFvL6.36.55.75.55.48.28.35.55.96.37
DEFvR6.65.08.09.09.07.07.06.07.65
DEFvL6.65.08.09.09.06.07.06.07.556.67
BANC
ATHOFFvR5.95.56.94.95.54.54.95.26.35.51
OFFvL5.55.56.45.84.96.34.34.14.55.26
DEFvR4.46.06.010.07.06.06.09.06.73
DEFvL4.46.06.08.07.06.07.09.06.735.82
BUCOFFvR6.06.86.06.85.47.05.97.07.46.48
OFFvL5.87.85.96.95.66.84.96.17.56.37
DEFvR8.07.010.06.011.07.09.010.08.96
DEFvL6.07.010.06.011.09.011.011.09.667.26
MUMOFFvR4.86.04.76.25.07.26.05.77.45.89
OFFvL5.76.25.56.35.66.57.25.66.36.10
DEFvR8.04.07.08.09.06.07.06.06.98
DEFvL6.06.07.08.09.06.07.08.07.426.30
TRIOFFvR5.56.36.76.94.55.55.96.57.16.10
OFFvL5.56.36.96.94.55.55.36.55.35.86
DEFvR8.07.06.07.08.010.07.09.07.56
DEFvL8.07.06.07.08.010.07.09.07.566.49

Analysis follows.
Last edited by allenciox on Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:58 am, edited 2 times in total.

allenciox
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Re: UMEBA preview for 2045

Post by allenciox » Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:31 pm

Overall, it shows an extremely balanced BURT league for hitters, with all four teams within .14 of each other. This suggests that there are no weak teams on the BURT side of the house --- all four teams have an OVR higher than all teams other than Bucharest in BANC and as mentioned before, as lineups "improve" for teams relative to the spring training lineups in the regular season lineups, teams will likely just increase in OVR. That also means that teams that do the best job of setting up platoons, etc. can have an advantage as all teams start at roughly the same point. Here is analysis for each team specifically:

BURT:
Beirut (BEI): 1B, 2B, SS, and CF are particularly strong for Beirut. The defense at catcher is perhaps a weak point for Beirut. Even in spring training lineups, Beirut already has platoons set up for DH, 1B, and LF.

Baghdad (BGH): 2B and 3B are particularly strong positions for Baghdad. 1BvR is a good hitter, but weak defensively (DEF=2). CF is also a bit weak for Baghdad.

Jerusalem (JER): Jerusalem is particularly strong at Catcher (strongest catcher in all of UMEBA), CF, RF, and DH. However, their entire infield is considerably weaker than the rest of BANC, particularly defensively (5 rating at 2B, 6 rating at 3B, 9 rating at SS). In spring training rosters, there are no platoons set up. I suspect that Jerusalem could considerably improve their results by setting up some platoons.

Manama (MAN): 1B, 2B, LF, and RF are particularly strong positions for Manama. They have weaknesses at CF (hitting is ok, but defense of 7 is considerably lower than what other teams have at CF) and DH.

BANC:
In BANC, Bucharest has the "hitter" advantage by a considerable margin, but that is likely somewhat due to other teams not taking full advantage of platoons yet. Even so, the margin is great enough that platoons alone won't completely close it. Mumbai and Tripoli are close to each other and not much behind the teams in BURT. Athens trails everybody else by a considerable margin.

Athens (ATH): Athens doesn't really have any strong positions as currently set up and their OVR rating is considerably weaker than any other team. Right now they have a platoon set up for CF, and 3B, but they have clear platoons at C, 1B , LF, and RF that they aren't yet taking advantage of. They could show off much better if they did.

Bucharest (BUC): The only weakness Bucharest has is at 3B, and that isn't by much. If the same level of hitting was accompanied by a better defense than the 6 they currently have, it would be fine. Bucharest has more platoons set up than any other team currently: at C, 2B, LF, CF, and RF.

Mumbai (MUM): Mumbai is particularly strong at 3B and CF (even though the CF defense is fairly weak at 7, they have the best hitting center fielder in all of UMEBA). They are particularly weak at 2B --- having the lowest rating there in all of BANC (and second worst, to Jerusalem, in all of UMEBA). They have platoons set up at 1B, RF, and DH.

Next up I will do a pitching analysis.

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Re: UMEBA preview for 2045

Post by RonCo » Sun Nov 29, 2020 11:05 pm

Very cool. Interesting method.
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Re: UMEBA preview for 2045

Post by RichY » Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:07 am

Well done Jim. Pretty interesting stuff.
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Re: UMEBA preview for 2045

Post by allenciox » Mon Nov 30, 2020 5:34 pm

Ok, now I have the results for pitching. I will go through the formulas later, but here are the results (First four teams are BURT teams):

RoleBEIBGHJERMANATHBUCMUMTRI
S17.006.337.007.337.837.677.836.83
S28.336.506.338.336.588.006.677.00
S37.677.006.178.337.837.506.757.83
S46.676.335.177.837.007.336.676.42
S56.675.927.426.676.176.836.837.83
Starters7.276.426.427.707.087.476.957.18
.
R17.337.278.538.007.008.129.237.12
R27.486.827.827.527.277.707.657.75
R37.307.157.336.976.937.827.486.18
R47.436.887.677.356.607.457.156.33
R57.226.856.876.337.537.126.677.15
R67.777.006.486.777.207.307.007.00
R76.766.856.937.658.217.637.837.00
R87.437.106.977.677.40
Relief7.346.977.387.217.217.597.596.99
.
Total7.306.646.807.507.137.527.207.11
Essentially, a 7 would be equivalent to a pitcher having 7 STU, 7 MOV, 7 CON vL and vR.

Manama has the best starting pitching among all teams, Bucharest and Mumbai are tied for best Relief core, and Bucharest and Manama are essentially tied for best pitching staff "overall". Two teams in BURT are substantially behind all the other teams in pitching --- Baghdad and Jerusalem.

When we combine the pitching analysis with the analysis of hitters (and defense), I would predict the following finishes based on the current setups:

BURT:
Manama
Beirut
Jerusalem
Baghdad

BANC:
Bucharest
Mumbai & Tripoli (tie --- Mumbai has slightly better pitching, Tripoli has slightly better hitting)
Athens

Interestingly, this exactly matches up with the game-generated preseason predictions --- with one exception: It has Jerusalem and Baghdad in reverse order compared to the preseason predictions.

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Re: UMEBA preview for 2045

Post by chicoruiz » Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:52 am

If I were Baghdad, I'd resent having my pitching staff grouped together with the grease fire that is the Jerusalem staff...
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Re: UMEBA preview for 2045

Post by BrianH » Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:23 pm

Great write up and Read. Thanks for taking the time to do the analysis Jim. Will be interesting to see how close the actual season replicates your model.

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