Once the darling of punditry, youthful Taylor Bettencourt’s Vancouver franchise has fallen on some unfortunate moments. If you go by the classic WAR-in, WAR-out analysis (in which the team saw an out-flux of six WAR), it’s not going to get a whole lot better in 2045. I don’t see any reason think otherwise. I mean, I like Angel De Castillo probably better than the next guy, but the kid is 37 years old now, and not really the kind of chip you focus on if you’re planning on winning today.
Off Topic
Aside: I think it’s a long-long shot, but if De Castillo does manage to hand around a few more years, and if he does manage to duplicate his 2.1 WAR of last year for each of those seasons, he’ll be border-lining toward 50 WAR on his career. Probably not enough to get in, but enough to make for a lively conversation in the Hall of Fame Discussion thread, eh?
In the end, the team feels like it’s searching for an identity.
Is it a rebuilding team, which the trade of Angel Gonzalez, Alejandro Ortiz, and Lando Klomp might suggest, or is it a club trying to truly win a little, as the retention of said Smith and Castillo might say? Given that the minors have a pretty fair chunk of talent still in them, and that the club’s coffers would seem to have some cash still to spend, it’s fairly obvious that the front office isn’t in a full-tilt Win Now moment, but otherwise … well … fans probably have a right to be confused.
So, what’s the prognosis?
When the Mounties ride off into the sunset, where will they wind up going?
Hitting/Fielding
Barring more trades—which isn’t totally out of the question, we suppose—the Mounties should be able to score some runs. Really, they should. They were mid-pack last year, and that was with rookie Brad Parkinson having a pretty horrific -1.7 WAR debut at first base. That really shouldn’t happen again. He’s the kind of guy who could arguably drop 4 WAR, and if he does that should pretty much take care of the 6 WAR drop OOTP says they made.
Jose Silva wasn’t bad at second, but the club brought De Castillo in for a reason—perhaps to DH, but perhaps to spell Silva, too. Shortstop is kind of a speed bump, but neither William Crowley or Robbie Krok should do terrible damage so much as just kind of fade into obscurity. If David Noboru has something left in the tank, that would help—his ratings look interesting, but, really, I’m not sure I’d bet on it.
The real question in the outfield is which of the four or five guys they’ve got will wind up pairing with Smith and Castillo.
Defensively it doesn’t look like a club that will take your breath away, but they should—as noted—score a few runs. If things go particularly well, perhaps even do better than last year’s crew. We’ll see.
The Arms
Here’s the rub. Vancouver allowed opponents to score 5.4 runs a game last year against a league average of 4.6. That’s not good. That they traded Klomp away for … well … nothing useful now, that’s for sure … isn’t going to help.
We’d guess the front office wants young 22-year-old Jose Torres to grow into an ace—which is possible, but mot something I’d be spending my Brewster Bucks on. Right now we’d expect the opening day starter to be either Miguel Ayala or Luis Torres. Both are honest-to-goodness pitchers, but neither scream Ace. Angel Romero could be in that mix, too. He’s coming off a nice enough year in 2044, and at age 26 perhaps has found his stride. That said, he’s been more swingman than Ace.
Add to this that the bullpen is filled with guys who no one outside of Vancouver would probably pick out of a lineup, and you’ve got concerns. There’s likely some hope that a kid like Tom Ramey might help out, but as far as we can tell the team hasn’t done much to address this area. Perhaps they are hoping for some development, and perhaps that will come. But “perhaps” is a word full of angst when it comes to projections. What does make the heart of a prognosticator get more than a bit excited is the idea that a couple of 22-year-old minor leagues could actually blossom. Both Hideaki Shibutani and Kenny Kelly look like they could be ready sooner than later, though both would be skipping levels and would likely benefit from at least a little time in AAA just to see. One wonders if minor league FA signing Octavio Vega might find his way to the parent club, too.
Projection?
Time will tell, of course. If the Mounties jump out early, they could push the front office to move earlier.
That said, the team won 68 games last year.
I’m not going to say they’ll do better in 2045.