A couple seasons ago, Aaron took some umbrage when I said the Pikemen were in the middle of a transition. “We’re already dine,” he basically said. Neeneer, neeneer, neeneer. Well, I disagree. Now, however, that Dan Cannon and his mega $30M contract is off the roster and into a minor league clubhouse, that situation is moot. (Never has so much dancing happened in a CFO’s office as the day that memo came in, unless you happen to maybe have been in the Atlantic City front office when Eduardo Lopez gave a pass to $35M to hang them up. What the hell is it with Atlantic Division pitchers? Are they just allergic to money?)
So, yes, the transition is over, and yes, verily, it is good.
Not that there aren’t chinks. I mean, I’m not sure I’m ready to line these guys up as a repeat-potential three-peat team. Still … maybe I’m wrong.
The Achilles Heels?
If there is an Achilles heel, it’s in the runtime of the Aurther Dempster contract. Dempster is 36 now, and still awfully danged good. The team owes him $23M a year until he’s 40, though, and unless he goes the Cannon route one guess it will hurt Arron Wiener’s team sometime.
The second issue is in Dave Martin’s $30M option. At 36, one suspects Martin will exercise that one. With $116M on the books for 2046, this serves to create what is known in the business as “a helluva roadbump.”
That said, there are options, and this is a club with a front office that knows how to navigate road bumps. Besides, this preview is about 2045, not 2046.
So, Now That You Mention 2045…
Check these ages:
The infield will likely be mostly 23 year-old Colin Lee at first, 25-year-old Bing-de Zhao at second base, 23-year-old Daniel Pepper at Short, and 24-year-old Sergio Valentin at third. Between them they did about 15 WAR last year. The outfield starts in left with 24-year-old Wilson Alomar, runs through 24-year-old Gilberto Falchonelli (platooned with 26-year-old Manuel Rivera) in center and then 24-year-old Julio Barajas in right. There’s another thirteen or so. Catcher Manuel Moreno is 23 years old and looks for all purposes like he’s going to make the jump from Short A to the majors.
If there’s a red flag it’s that Zhao is looking a little more fragile each time he takes a breath. He’s also making $11m and due something more than that in his last arb year. Then he’ll get really paid. Still, though, this is about 2045, and right now you’d be hard-pressed to find a more sublime lineup that the one Rockville is going to field.
On the mound it’s a bit of a different story.
Yes, Dempster and Martin are a year older and looking awfully pricy, but both of them can still throw a bit. Martin is the yellow flag of the two, having dropped sub 100 ERA+ values each of the past two seasons. The team isn’t going to be able to rely on him like they have. 25-year-old Yun Zhang is a steady kind of rotation filler. Adergazoz Ouakili is being listed as a closer, and may even be most safely used there, but he’s been quite effective as a starter and we’d guess that’s where he’ll spend most of his time.
With these question marks in existence, look for Rockville to lean heavily once again on the bullpen—and why wouldn’t you? The world begins with Danny Leach (25) but does not end there. 23-year-old Jason Hone is still growing into a change up for his second pitch, but almost doesn’t need it. If Ouakili doesn’t start, add him here. At 20, prospect Neil Davies is probably not ready yet, but a solid burst of development could see him adding value by July or August. That’s before we get to three or four of the “just solid and dependable” arms a team needs to navigate injury waters.
So you’re saying there’s not a chance?
For Atlantic Division foes? Well…maybe. For maybe the first time since signing Dan Cannon the team has a moderately thin set of rotation guys—which makes me angsty. That said, the club won 102 games last year, snatching their first Atlantic Division crown since 2041. AT this point I don’t see any reason to think it can’t happen again.
Let’s be a bit more cautious, though, shall we?
I mean, the division seems pretty good to me. And some of the weaker teams in the Johnson seem to have gotten a bit better.
So let’s step back and say 98 wins, and that 98 will still be enough to take the division one more time.
