The Nashville Bluebirds went 25-5 this spring, leading their fans to think they might actually have a chance to do something this year. This is a problem on several fronts. I mean, sure, there’s a chance, right? I mean. The Heisenberg principle says that at sometime in the infinite amount of time in all of existence there will be a time that the molecules that make up Kate’s body will all automatically transport out of Portland and into the Nashville clubhouse, wherein all the guys will be properly motivated and go out hunting for bear.
Or something like that.
I don’t know.
I mean.
This is apparently not your grandfather’s Nashville club, anyway. The team almost made the playoffs last year, and in fact were left at the doorstep in the last act of the play—almost like they were a barefoot almost bride jilted at the precipice of bliss. Which, when you think of it, seems about right. Nothing better than a good “left at the alter” story to build up the old thick skin, am I right? Apparently OOTP’s internal models think so, anyway, as they have Nashville breaking the barrier this time out, winning 93 games and heading to the post season. We’re not sure, though.
The good news: the team’s only losses were starter Hao Kun and bullpen guy Chin Kim. Both seem replaceable. Mark White also left for Free Agency, but White was a non-factor last year, and the club added 31-year-old veteran outfielder Martin Marin in his stead. It should kind of wash out, we suppose. The big fish add was supposed to be Aaron Haney, but that got nixed out of the gate, so we’ll stay tuned for the next part of that saga. Don’t count the Bluebirds out.
Here’s the thing about Nashville. Under GM Chad Nason they’ve completed a transformation into a pretty solid baseball team, capable of doing everything pretty well. Their bats last year were top two in the Heartland. They played upper-third defense across all of the BBA, and their pitching was similar. If they’d kept a few more balls inside the park, the Nashville staff might have wound up in the top tier.
Rotation The Key?
We’ll see if the primary addition to this team can be the medicine against long balls that the staff needs—and by “addition” we mean a full season of Scott Bugbie. The sensational lefty joined the team last season and impressed. He’ll get a full season this time. While he’s still young, we’re expecting good things. In the meantime, 23-year-old Chris Moran is probably the ace of the staff. Moran is 34-25 on his career, including 15-8, 3.53 last season. As an Ace, we’d say he’s probably a better #2—but if he continues to develop, there’s #1 capability buried somewhere in his four-pitch arsenal. 23-year-old Robinson Valdez is going to be a load for Heartland hitters, too. His 12-inning debut last season had pundits whistling tunes better set to the fiddle.
We’re expecting the club’s pair of 20-year-old phenoms, Jorge Avila and Adrian Custello, to start in AAA, but everyone sees the future coming up as fast as a mid-season call-up. Until then, we expect veteran Alvin Chartrand has a job lined up.
At the end of the day, this boils down to say that the Bluebirds future rotation is going to be really, really good, and really, really young. Given the ages of these guys, it makes one wonder if the hay-day of the rotation really begins in 2046, but one might well make good cash betting on them this year.
With Lorenzo de’Medici (who may be on his way to becoming the poster child for "always a bridesmaid" Egan winner), and Martin Roman in the bullpen, the club is dangerous there, too. One suggests depth might be an issue, but you can say that in a lot of places. Javier Garcia, Barny Lindsay, and newly signed Miguel Angel Garcia all could soak up some quality innings. I kind of like the unheralded Gustavo Munoz, too.
Is This The Year …
We ask the question about Kidane Ata—who really shouldn’t be seen as a disappointment, but is. At 28, Ata has played through the years of youthful hype, and just never really quite fit the bill. He was supposed to be a sizzling two-way superstar, but the WAR numbers have never quite hit for the cycle. Finally focusing on the field, though, the past two years look pretty bold: 3.6 WAR in 2043, 4.6 in 2044.
Is this the year he strikes it big? Is this the year Kidane Ata drops a 6-WAR kind of season and shows the world. Nashville fans hope so.
Until then, this is Tony Frost’s team. Perhaps it will be Tony Frost’s team anyway, because really, he’s the guy everyone looks to. At 24 years old, the switch-hitting Tour de Force broke out with a season Ata would probably kill for. Perhaps the biggest meta-question going on around Nashville this season, besides which country music star Frost will be seen dating next, is what lengths the team will need to be going to in order to ensure Frost doesn’t become the face of a different franchise.
And then there’s catcher Alberto Rodriguez, who is perhaps in a neck-and-neck race with Yellow Springs backstop Jesus Rodriguez to claim best catcher in the league. This Rodriguez wins the lumber race. That Rodriguez wins the leather.
Other questions exist for the Bluebird offense, of course—will Ernesto Souza bounce back to form, at 28 will we maybe see peak Gipper Kengos, with a little seasoning under his belt can you expect great things from young Pedro Mendoza among them—but the core of the offense is Frost, Ata, and Rodriguez. If they go right, the ship goes right. If the rest come along, the ship flies.
So …
All right, I hear you. What’s the final score, right? Will this team win 93 games like OOTP says they will? It would be a pretty astounding feat, really, now wouldn’t it? The Bluebirds won exactly 90 games back in 2040. Before that they hadn’t turned the trick since 2020 when the franchise finished a min-run with a 97-win season. That’s right. Twenty-five years ago.
Well … drumroll please …
Yeah. I think they are 90 games good. The team won 85 games last year, and that only came with a late-season swoon. They are a young team, though, and young teams get better. Roll the dice that one of those young pitchers tunes up by mid-season, and this could well be a 90+ win team.
This is Trashville we're talking about, though. These guys are fast becoming rivals to match Loserville, though. (Aside - can you imagine the pain it might inflict to be forced to watch a three-game series between Loserville and Trashville???? Shudder). This all adds up to mean that we can’t give them full 93-win OOTP due.
So, instead, let’s say 92.
