2043 saw the commissioner jump back from his stint in Nashville to take over the Hustler seat, where, let’s all face it, the man clearly belongs. The team won only 76 games last year, a number that hadn’t been seen in those environments in about three decades—and has been on the downward trend since 2040, when they marked up 101 victories. As Recte took the helm, the team’s defense was mediocre. In an offensive-minded ballpark, the team had scored only 695 runs—10th in the league—but allowed 744, which was 11th worst. The farm system was deep enough with guys who might be able to play, but bereft of top-end Prime A grade talent.
Not surprisingly, pre-season predictions are all over the board.
Given all that, and given the commissioner’s propensity for movement, it’s also not surprising the team was pretty active over the off-season.
Let’s take a look at the ball team he’s put together.
The Outfield
Jim Ashford will probably be given the everyday job in right field. He’s one of those rare righty mashers who can fend for himself against lefties. Even better is the fact that he can probably play the position. He’s a young player who made 4.1 WAR in what was effectively his rookie season. Solid player.
Left field is more of a … um … problem. You’d love to put the Italian out there and just let him run. L’Archbudelli flirted with .400 in that big live ball year, and maybe he could do it again…if the world consisted of all right handed pitchers, anyway. Cue Justin Jackson to play RHB understudy (and DH?). Of course, neither of them can really play defense—but it is left field, so how badly can it go? The team wasn’t horrible at the corners last year.
With Manoell Whanon being dealt in the winter, rumor has it that Tom Rudge is going to be patrolling center field this year. The good news here is that Whanon was not particularly good in center last year, so Rudge doesn’t have a high bar to climb. It could work out, but my spidey sense is tingling with that frequency says a lot of balls might be dropping onto the Casino by Mo Fugger’s outfield grass this year. Recte’s post says Francisco Otero will platoon against RHP. That idea makes my spidey sense spike into the red zone. Otero hit .205 last year in Vegas. Enough said, right?
Overall the outfield looks okay. Maybe above average with the bat, and maybe below with the glove—but not fare either way.
The Infield
I dunno. Rect posted his plan in the annual “Locks” series, and to be honest, I think most fans of the Hustler Dynasty would look at the crew here and break down a little. I mean. None of these guys are horrible, its just kind of a motley crew of bland.
Altaner has been a 3 WAR players, but has been on a downward trend, and only managed it last year because Matt saved him from about 100 plate appearances against LHP. So, yeah, he needs a platoon. Enter Raul Alilea, who, no, does not crush lefties. He’s just your average run of the mill hitter against them—at least that’s what our scouts say, anyway.
Moving Otero into center field means Stewart Turton will take over at shortstop. I don’t know how well that will work. Seems to me to be a subtraction. Turton looks like he might hit a little, but the fact is that until his 478 AB in Reno last year, he’d never turned a positive WAR at any time in his professional life. Time will tell, though.
Yan makes a pretty nice third baseman—the kind of very good every-day Joe who turns a good team into a very good team, but may not turn a mediocre team into a good one—if that makes sense. LHB who can field in the infield are a big value to my eyes. The problem is that Yan has played second base his whole career, and as a second baseman he’s kind of league average in the field (+5 ZR two years ago, -3 last year).
Add in Antonio Ruiz as the primary catcher, and any one of a plethora of others as he back-up, and the mix is complete. Ruiz is a good defensive catcher, but his lack of discipline at the plate means his contact-based approach to hitting limits his value.
See why I say I don’t know about this crew? Try as I might, I don’t see a guy who will lift the team, and right now I don’t see the defense as being good at all. This is not the Hustlers of yore.
Look for Matt to spend a season or two working to make the infield great again, so to speak.
The Rotation
News that Elliot Buckland’s shoulder inflammation has shut him down again is both heartbreaking and expected. Most insiders were rooting for him—and those in Vegas were rooting for him the most because this injury rips a big part of the plan out of the plan.
Drees Geetman, acquired from Montreal in the Whanon deal, will anchor the staff. He’s a solid pitcher and a great addition. I like the deal on the whole, but facing facts, Geestman is not the kind of guy you find at the top of division winners rotations. Especially if your number two is Gerald Abbot, who is another good guy to have on a staff, but who will struggle to get right handed batters out. At 96 MPH and with a whole variety plate of pitches, I wonder if Abbot would be best served by a conversion to the pen.
The team has enough plug and play candidates around that you might see a option wire train set up to fill slots based on match up and fatigue this year. Any of them could pitch well for a bit, but mostly I think it’s going to get really shaky over 162 games. It could get so bad that the team tries to call up top prospect Stan Cyr too early, which to my mind would be both understandable, but doubling down on the pain.
Matt is an inventive guy, though. I’m pondering the thought of whether we might see a Geestman and three-men on short pitch count rotation that pushes a LOT more innings to the bullpen.
The Bullpen
Here’s the meat of the Hustler pitching staff. You’ve got Shawn Huber, who is now 32, and perhaps on his downside (or perhaps not?). You’ve got the oft-injured Manuel Orozco, who agreed to come back to Vegas with Recte on a super-sweet deal. And you’ve got 23-year-old Raul Gonzalez, who made a nice debut with the Hustlers last year, and looks like a top-grade reliever going forward. One suspects Gonzalez might be the heir apparent to Huber’s role as a 170+ IP reliever.
I don’t think Orozco can stand the wear and tear of a 120 IP kind of season, but if he could, that would help a lot, because these three guys are going to need to throw something around 400 innings between them if the club is going to be really good.
If they can make that happen, the Hustlers have some guys who can be fillers, the most interesting of which is 280year0old Jimmy Greenwood, who is trying to extend a solid career for as long as he can. I also like RHP Miguel Abline and LHP Rich Martinez. Both of those guys are young, and look like they could make a difference at times. Elias Gregory can throw, too, though his splits make me angsty. Recte’s Locks series says url=https://statspl.us/brewster/reports/new ... 43053.html]Jorge Fuentes[/url] might start, but he looks to me like a guy waiting on a reliever conversion to see if he has a career.
Overall Summary
After digging in closely, I’m no closer to an opinion on the wild fluctuations in possible outcomes for the Hustlers. On paper, the team has talent, but perhaps it’s spread a little thin. So, yeah, if the injury bug stays away and if Recte can find a way to hide the Hustlers’ lack of anything resembling a rotation, the team could win some games. But that’s a tough set of “ifs.” I mean, that’s not really how life works. The club has already lost Buckland for the year. All it would take is one or two more big problems and, to mix metaphors, the team could implode like a house of cards.
The team also has some money constraints right now—though about $35M of that is tied up in team options that would cost some $7M to buy out.
At the end of the day, as much asn my brain is telling me to trust the Rectenwald magic, I’m struck with the idea that the team’s 2040 Landis push came with a cost, and that the decline in Vegas may well not be over for another season or two.
Projection: Who the hell knows, but I’m guessing more pain than joy. Say 74-88.
