2043 PREVIEW: Long Beach Surfers

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Last season the Surfers stumbled to a 58-104 record, the second-worst in all of the Brewster Baseball Association. The annual tradition of Emílio Vega pitching less than 10 innings for the entire season was realized by April. Tchekanov wasn't quite Tchekanov. Their ballpark's popular "Hang Ten Hoagie" was the lowest-seed in the Ballpark Food Challenge and lost in the first round.

With nothing going right, General Manager Stephen Lane seemingly started to look ahead to 2043 by turning over the roster by mid-summer: beloved infielder Brett Compton was released by late July, Sloan Daniel was traded to Omaha and established veteran pitchers Cris Ríos, Jimmy Greenwood, and Diogo Lindt were driven northeast on the I-15 and dropped off on the Las Vegas Strip just before the deadline. It was a disappointing season by all standards.

But BBA GMs don't earn the big-time money by just sitting around and owner O'Shea Jackson – as well as fans of the Surfers – have a lot to look forward to, thanks to Lane's hard work over the past 10 months or so. Prognosticators around the league have the Southern California club winning anywhere between 65 (Baseball News Network) and 69 games (2043 Media Guide). Maybe it's the Long Beach Kool-Aid talking, but 70 wins seems doable out of this scrappy bunch of ballplayers. And an improvement of a dozen or so wins over last year is something the rest of the league should keep an eye on in, as the franchise continues its rebuild. Let's take a look to see how they get there:

OFFENSE/DEFENSE
Projected Starting Lineup
RF Lionnel Crépin
DH Gonzalo Martínez
LF Pedro Ávila
1B Mario Deórtez
3B Jared Gillstrom
2B Sean Maguire
C Kelile Komen
SS Cary Brackett
CF Wilson Ford

This projected lineup is, of course, merely speculation at this point, especially at the top, where the Surfers lack a prototypical lead-off man. Crépin lacks the contact skills and speed you like to see in the one-spot and probably is best suited as a table-setter batting second, but he gets on-base at a very good clip (led the league in OBP way back in 2038) and still has nice pop at 32 years old. If he can duplicate his 2042 bounce-back season with Portland (.255/.392/.467), the Surfers are doing okay right out the gate. Martínez could certainly leadoff, but his overall strong offensive profile, including good speed, might be best hitting second. He had a nice 2042 and he's just one season removed from a .331/40-homer campaign. Look for a rebound out of Martínez that helps the club greatly improve their offense from last year. Ávila is another Surfer who had a down 2042. If he can come close to his 2041 slash line of .294/.401/.503, the wins should start adding up for Long Beach. Deórtez was signed in the middle of spring training to a one-year deal, a fantastic low-risk move that will bolster this offense. Deórtez has had an up-and-down career but should provide better-than-league-average power in the middle of the lineup. Gillstrom continues his tour around the Brewster as he wraps up an incredible career destined for the Hall of Fame. It seems winning follows Gillstrom wherever he goes, and his veteran leadership and tremendous work ethic will hopefully rub off on the rest of the ball club. Plus, fans will want to file into Costantino Memorial Stadium to check out the generational talent, arguably the second-biggest draw on the team outside of Danya Tchekanov. Don't put it past Lane to bet on this signing to provide a boost in offense and ticket sales. Gillstrom isn't the Silk Award-winning threat he once was, but he'll still be one of the better offensive third basemen in the division even at age 38. Maguire, 39, is another aging free agent pick-up this season and while he's lost a few more steps than Gillstrom, he should be a passable option at second. Look for Maguire to potentially platoon with rookie Tomás Borges, with the youngster getting the starts against left-handed pitchers. Borges has seen his stock skyrocket over the past two seasons, likely one reason why Lane coveted the Salvadoran prospect once he was made available in trade talks by Boise. There's nothing special about Komen other than being one of the clubhouse leaders, although his bat is good enough to be a starting catcher in the league. Brackett and Ford don't offer much offensively outside of their impressive speed. If they reach base, you could see the green light given to them to race around the bases in hopes of the top of the lineup driving them home.

The bench is mediocre, however Carlos Gonzáles will see plenty of playing time in the outfield corners, both as a bat off the bench or potential platoon-mate with Crépin. Brandon “Wheelz” Howeth-Arneson, Jr. should make the team as the fifth outfielder, specializing in defense and as a pinch-runner. Wyle Tupin has some upside offensively but he breads his butter by being a standout back-up defensive catcher. Speaking of defense, the Surfers should be better-than-average, as very few starters are major liabilities with the glove.

PITCHING
Projected Starting Rotation
RHP Danya Tchekanov
RHP Ernesto Delgado
RHP Mathieu Valette
LHP Cornelio Lozano
LHP Raúl Álvarez

Projected Bullpen
LHP Luis Manuel Rodríguez
RHP Francisco Lucero
LHP Eric Hughes
RHP José Cardenas
RHP Tomás Chávez
LHP George Galetto
RHP Ricardo Moreno

They say “A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.” But what about the strongest link? Pretty damn reliable way of starting to build a chain, is it not? Enter Tchekanov, one of the most coveted arms since the statue of Venus was unearthed among the ancient ruins of Milos. The righty from Belarus had a down year in 2042. Yes, 13-10 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.20 WHIP is considered sub-par for Tchekanov, which goes to show how great he can be. A repeat of his 2041 Nebraska Award-winning season (14-5, 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) is well within reach and doing so will do wonders at the Surfers’ quest for .500. Lozano is no slouch himself, and at 22 years old and coming off a rookie season of 103 ERA+ in just 85 innings, he should take another step forward and be a solid #2 man in the rotation. Valette is another youngster with a cup of coffee to his name who should continue to mature and improve, while Álvarez, the 15th overall pick in the 2042 Draft, dominated Triple-A hitters in his 17 innings out of the pen, allowing just an ERA of 1.19 while striking out 11.3 batters per nine innings. This season Álvarez will be asked to perform like a seasoned vet, as the lefty is expected to break camp in the rotation. The wild card in the rotation is that of Lozano, who has averaged no fewer than 10 K per nine in his first three seasons in Long Beach. Lozano has gone from reliever as a rookie to swingman his sophomore campaign and now as a full-time starter. Last year’s experiment of 32 starts didn’t go according to plan, as Lozano led the league in losses (19) and walks (136). The hard-throwing righty has major control issues but his ability to miss bats and keep the ball in the yard are tempting. Lane will have to somehow figure out how to get the most out of Lozano if he expects to see the Surfers continue to improve.

It’d be foolish to project bullpen roles, as every team is different when it comes to their preferred usage, but make no bones about it, Luis Manuel Rodriguez will be the glue that holds this pen together, and that’s a lot to ask out of a rookie. The lefty from Guatemala has all the talent in the world and you just hope it doesn’t go to waste on a last place team. Look for him to pitch multiple, high-leverage innings and likely succeed in doing so at just 22 years of age. The rest of the bullpen is decent, including the worm-burning, fireballing, sidearming Lucero. Hughes is one to watch this year for entertainment purposes, if nothing else. Scouts rate the southpaw as perhaps the toughest pitcher against left-handed batters in the entire league (go ahead, look at those ratings against LHB…we’ll wait.) We’d actually love to see Hughes get a shot at a follower role against extremely left-handed heavy lineups. Perhaps throw Vallette for an inning as opener, then bring in Hughes and make the manager in the opposing dugout try and figure out how counter Hughes’ nastiness. Raúl Chavarría will likely get significant innings as well once he returns in late spring from a herniated disk injury. Oh, and remember the groundhog that is Emílio Vega's trip to the surgeon? A torn labrum in March is keeping Vega out for yet another 12-13 months. We recommend he starts updating his resumé in the meantime, as his future as a coach, broadcaster or analyst is liking coming soon.

STORYLINES
Best Selling Bobblehead
That’s easy, it’s Tchekanov. While he only appears every five days, he’s still the player fans love to see and is the envy of most every other team in the Brewster. One wonders if moving such a popular player would be a good idea, likely netting an impressive return, or disastrous, leaving angry fans with pitchforks outside the front office.

Grom Infested Waters
The best group of players in Long Beach are their young pitchers, which is a blessing and a curse. If they continue to develop, it opens a ton of opportunities for the team in the next two or three seasons. If they wipeout like a novice on a longboard, it could not only make for a long season, but no clear plan for the future.

Hanging Ten
Long Beach lead the league in FUBAR losses last season. If you need to ask what a FUBAR is, you should probably take a long look in the mirror. Or better yet, start reading the forum. Anyways, the team must cut down on their blowout losses for a myriad of reasons, pride being one of them. If they can keep their FUBAR record closer to .500, they’re doing something right.

RECAP
The roster isn’t littered with All-Stars or top prospects, but rather with a bonafide ace, several gritty veterans and young pitchers with upside. Stephen Lane is one of the best general managers in the league, so you know Long Beach will be one day relevant again. The Pacific was the punchline of the Brewster last year but several teams improved over the off-season. Were the Surfers one of them? We’ll find out soon enough. Put us down as labeling Long Beach “a bounce-back candidate” this year, playing competitive ball game in and game out on their way to an eventual record of 72-92.