2040 Des Moines Kernels

[HoosierVic]

(Caveat: I wasn’t able to connect with Ed before I needed to post this (due to travel plans), so he may well have made personnel moves not reflected here. So, think of this less as a definitive preview and more like a drive-by glimpse of what’s up in Des Moines. Also, feel free to think of it as the blatant PP grab that it most certainly is …)

2040 Des Moines Kernels

It’s easy to discount the Des Moines Kernals.

I mean, you look at the BNN preseason predictions and they put Des Moines at 65-97 for 2040, in 7th Place in the Frick Heartland Division, and 26 games off the lead.

It’s tempting to just think, “Wow. Terrible team. Should they even bother suiting up this season?”

To which we say, “Hey, they’re contractually obligated! Didn’t you ever watch John Houseman in The Paper Chase?”

But I digress.

So, anyway, bad team, not worth thinking much about, right?

Um, wrong. Here’s a burner cell phone. Go call your mother and tell her you’ll never be BBA prognosticator.

Because once you start poking around the Des Moines roster, you start to get a sense of just what GM Ed Murphy is up to here.

He’s building a beast.

Let’s take a look:

Starting Pitchers

Player	OV/POT	Stuff	Move	Con
D. Smith	50/80	7/9	9/9	4/10
D. Coutts	45/45	5/5	4/4	7/7
M. Villarreal	50/50	6/6	5/5	7/7
T. Hashimoto	35/60	6/9	5/5	5/7
T. Wulms	40/40	4/4	5/5	6/6
J. Garcia	50/65	6/7	6/6	8/8

Bullpen

Player	OV/POT	Stuff	Move	Con
S. Franco	30/30	8/8	2/2	3/3
A. Van Gestel	40/40	7/8	3/3	5/5
J. Riles	40/75	7/10	5/5	4/4
R. Maldonado	45/45	6/6	6/6	8/8
J. Aguilar	40/45	6/7	6/6	5/5
J. Garcia	35/80	5/11	5/5	6/6
A. Campbell	45/45	5/8	6/6	8/8
R. Gabriel	55/65	7/7	6/7	7/8
J. Castro	70/70	9/9	7/7	7/7

What leaps out at you? The current overall ratings – especially for the starting rotation – are pretty meh.

But that potential, from the rotation through the ‘pen ... wow. Admittedly, Ed is playing a bit of a risky game calling his talented youngsters (two of them are only 19) to the bigs before they fill out their potential. And for now, of course – barring significant ratings bumps by the starters – the Kernels will be forced to lean hard on the back end of the bullpen, with Castro and Gabriel.

But if Kernels fans can hold out until 2041 or ’42, they’ll be treated to a rotation led by fully a mature trio of Smith, Garcia and Hashimoto and … oh my. If Ed can add a 4th starter with similar talent (and he’s got a couple more lurking in the minors, Greg Palmer at AA, and Timmy Karnes at A), the sky’s the limit.

So, current grade: C- to D+. Potential grade: A.

Catching

Player	OV/POT	Con	Gap	Pow	Eye	Avd K	Arm	Abil
A. O'Quinn	40/45	4/4	5/5	6/6	4/4	8/8	8	5
B. Clark	50/50	5/5	6/6	6/6	4/4	8/8	7	6
M. Foryan	50/50	5/5	3/4	4/4	9/9	7/7	5	6

This is a fairly pedestrian group, with Clark the seeming class of the unit. Last season he slashed .248/.299/.430 with 1.1 WAR and an OPS of .729. His defense is a tad better than his offense, but still nothing to write home about. Foryan, with his excellent batting eye, likely will get some playing time, too. These guys won’t humiliate Des Moines, certainly, but they won’t be the main reasons they storm into the playoffs, either. Current grade: C to C-. Potential Grade: C to C-.

Infield

Player	Pos	OV/POT	Con	Gap	Pow	Eye	Avd K	Rng	Arm	DP
W. Carter	1B	50/50	6/6	7/7	7/7	5/5	6/6	4	7	3
O. Luna	1B	50/50	6/6	5/5	8/8	5/5	6/6	1	3	3
A. Williamson	2B	70/70	4/4	7/7	6/6	8/8	5/5	8	7	7
E. Garza	3B	45/45	6/6	6/6	5/5	5/5	6/6	4	5	6
J. Holman	SS	50/50	5/5	7/7	6/6	6/6	5/5	7	10	8
J. Jaramillo	3B	40/45	4/4	6/6	6/6	3/3	6/6	7	9	9
G. Guzman	3B	50/50	7/7	6/6	1/1	6/7	7/8	6	8	8

Like the catching, this unit is pretty average, with the exception of second baseman Alan Williamson … who, unfortunately, went down with a torn ACL in a March 11 Spring Training game and will be out for 6 to 7 months, essentially the season.

That leaves Ed with a significant hole, both in his defense and his lineup. Williamson was an OBP machine last season, slashing .264/.406/.496, and the Kernels don’t have a readily-apparent replacement.

Still, the Des Moines infield is not without talent. Third baseman Gerardo Guzman is a good player (.326/.384/.425) who gets on base frequently, and first baseman Willie Carter has some power in his bat (27 HRs). But there’s no question Williamson will be missed.

Current grade: C-. Potential grade (with Williamson back): C+

Outfield/DH

Player	Pos	OV/POT	Con	Gap	Pow	Eye	Avd K	Rng	Err	Arm
C. White	CF	50/55	6/6	7/8	5/6	5/5	8/8	9	9	7
H. Cruz	LF	50/75	7/8	7/7	7/8	5/6	5/5	5	7	8
L. Chamberlain	LF	50/60	6/6	7/7	8/8	3/3	5/5	5	9	10
J. Rodriguez	LF	55/55	6/7	5/5	2/2	8/10	10/10	4	8	5
J. Moniker	LF	45/45	7/7	4/4	3/3	6/6	10/10	5	8	9
L. De La Cruz	LF	65/70	8/8	5/5	10/10	5/5	7/8	5	6	6
G. de Best	RF	50/50	6/6	5/5	6/6	7/7	7/7	5	6	9

Here, then, is the heart of the Des Moines offense.

Young (21) stud Lucio de la Cruz, who split time between AAA and the big club last season, slashed .282/.366/.531 with the Kernels and mashed 16 home runs in just 71 games. He figures to make his presence felt in a big way this season.

Then, of course, there’s even younger (20) stud Hector Cruz, who also spent much of his season in the minors. Once he got to Des Moines, though, he flat-out raked: .315/.364/.554 with 6 homers in just 29 games.

Long Chamerlain III, Chris White and Jorge Rodríguez all wield decent bats, as well – and White plays an excellent center field. Recent free agent pickup Gerbrand de Best figures to get into the mix, too.

Current grade: B. Potential Grade: A

Bottom Line

So what’s the overall? Des Moines is a team that could, if some of these youngsters develop over the course of the season, make some noise in the second half.

By next year, they could well be a cacophony. Hang in there Kernel Nation: you’ll go through a little more pain this season, but good times are ahead!

Prediction for 2040: 76-86. Prediction for 2041: The rest of the Frick Heartland might do well to steer clear of Des Moines.

[RonCo]

Except for 2037's odd year where the Kernels fell to an unfathomable 56 wins, the media guide has under-projected Des Moines by about 3 games a year for the past seven years (and really the past decade). In other words, the team has pretty much always been a little better than pundits perceive. Still, of course, they've never been GOOD, so I think they're easy to overlook.

[HoosierVic]

Unless something pretty unfortunate happens, they look like they'll be pretty good soon ...

[RonCo]

I tend to agree that unless Kernel fans get some kind of surprise gift, that Des Moines's window probably opens for real in 2041. The Williamson injury is quite unfortunate.

[HoosierVic]

My only concern, really, is that some of these guys are so young and haven’t filled out their skills yet. I’m not sure how badly the game punishes that (if at all), but it seems possible some of the pitchers might fall short of their potential if OOTP takes that much into account.

[RonCo]

Yes, that is a danger.

[Edward Murphy]

Thanks for preview write up Victor, you are right the loss of Williamson has a big impact on the team. Now I’m moving Guzman to second and splitting time at third with Garza and Jaramillo, watching the waiver wire and the trade block to see if someone pops up, or I may call up Jorge Aranda, he has above average range and errors with a below average arm for the infield.

Picking up both de Best and Forryan was a move to help replace the OBP.

[HoosierVic]

I like your team, Ed. Starting next season, for sure, I think you’ll have a lot of fun with it!