2040 Omaha Hawks Season Preview

[jleddy]

2039 Review
Omaha wrapped up the '39 season with a record of 78-84, three more wins than the previous year, however not nearly the 92.3 wins the team averaged between 2035-2037. The Hawks' season, which produced one less win than their Pythagorean Record, resulted in a second-place finish in the Frick Heartland, a distant 18-games back of division leader Yellow Springs. The bright spot for Omaha was their young offense continuing to fire on all cylinders, taking advantage of the hitter-friendly Hawks Field en route to a team .489 slugging percentage and 299 home runs, both second-best marks in the Frick League. Oddly enough, the offense was a rare one-true-outcome team, placing second-to-last in team strikeouts and dead last in walks. The Hawks pitching last year was the glaring problem, ranking second-to-last in FIP (5.32), K%-BB% (7.3%), home runs allowed (258).

Key additions (2039 stats): SP Ricardo Ortíz (104 ERA+, 2.1 WAR), C Allan MacHugh (79 OPS+, 0.9 WAR)

Key departures (2039 stats): 1B Gervasio Ridder (80 OPS+, 0.3 WAR), RP Ken Spencer (111 ERA+, 0.1 WAR), RP Manuel Orozco (108 ERA+, 0.3 WAR)

Offense Preview
The Hawks return eight regular starters from last year's powerhouse lineup, including highly-touted second-year third baseman Rafael Gutiérrez, who was acquired in a May trade with Madison. Even part-time starting catcher Conner Hamiton (87 starts) is back, providing the club with stability all across the diamond for general manager Justin Niles and manager Quentin Richardson. Omaha's lineup #2 thru #8 is arguably the most talented in the entire BBA, led by Puckett Award winners James Monger, Jimmy Starks, Jr. and Emílio Morales. Morales led the league in home runs for a sixth straight season and will find plenty of RBI opportunities as long as Starks is able to stay healthy, a problem that has caused the talented left fielder to miss over 20 weeks of playing time over the last three years. Designated hitter Martín Marín would likely be a star on most teams, but despite averaging 41 home runs over the course of the last three seaons, he's just another impressive bat that Heartland pitchers will have to deal with all year.

As if the Hawks major league roster wasn't scary enough, the team has a trio of exciting prospects in Triple A: 19-year-old catcher Alberto Rodríguez, first baseman Edgardo Díaz, and center fielder André Ly. One would think GM Niles could be looking to flip one or two for impact arms at some point this season to make a run at the Landis.

Projected Lineup
3B Rafael Gutiérrez
SS James Monger
LF Jimmy Starks, Jr.
2B Emílio Morales
DH Martín Marín
1B Rafael González
CF Orlando Ordóñez
C Conner Hamiton
RF Gustavo Herrera

Bench
C Allan MacHugh
1B Sergio Maldonado
INF Edgardo García
UTL Jake Williams
OF Lorenzo Bueno


Pitching Preview
Pitching has been an issue for a few years Omaha, so much so that 2037 Egan Award winner Augusto Cardenas was converted into a starting pitcher for the first time since 2035 in Triple A. The results were mixed and with Cardenas' injury-prone label, each time he takes the mound, all of Omaha must be holding their collective breathes. But its this willingness to try another is just want the Hawks need in order to field a capable rotation this year. Staff ace, or at least the most reliable arm in the rotation, is Stephen Clulow who is coming off a 12-13 season with a so-so ERA of 4.68. Free agent signee Ricardo Ortíz, 36, arrives from Boise and will add a veteran presence to counter young starters Thomas Rodríguez (23) and José Lima (22). Closer José Canales has seen his ERA rise for a third-straight season and may be too volatile to be given ninth-inning duties. Look for David Rivas, a set-up man the last few years in Omaha, to earn the closer role in the early part of 2040 after raising his strikeout rate last season while also lowering his walk rate. Pitching coach Al Lunn has a handful of unspectacular options to fill-out the bullpen, but don't be surprised if the Hawks look to add another proven arm via trade or waiver wire.

A pair of twenty-year-olds, Timo Dooley and Rafael Flores, are the future of the Hawks' pitching staff and are slated to start the year in Triple-A. While their ceilings are both high, they are still not fully developed and may need another year of seasoning in the minors before becoming key members in Omaha.

Projected Rotation
SP Stephen Clulow
SP Augusto Cardenas
SP Ricardo Ortíz
SP José Lima
SP Thomas Rodríguez

Bullpen
LR Marvin Atkinson
LR Alfredo Cabrera
MR Marvin Atkinson
MR Carson Stoller
MR Mutsuhito Imai
MR Tony Medine
SU José Canales
CL David Rivas


Unanswered Question
What's Niles got against southpaws? Omaha, Nebraska could be the Brewster's version of Bomont, Utah, the fictional town in the film 'Footloose' in which dancing and rock-n-roll are banned. Being a left-handed pitcher in Omaha is akin to the fox trot in Bomont, as the rotation and bullpen features exactly ZERO southpaws. In a Heartland Division that include righty-killers like Andrew Torres (MAD), Fernando Reyes (CHI), Lucas McNeill (YS), Jose Machado (YS), Alfredo Martinez (LOU) and reigning Silk Award winner Semei Kwakou (LOU), it could be another tough season for Hawks pitchers.

BBA.tv Rating: 8.8
If BBA.tv had a Red Zone-type channel highlighting when teams scored, the Omaha offense would likely lead the league in screen time with all their firepower. When healthy, almost no one is more exciting to watch than Starks, Jr. and Morales all-time prodigious power (his career .572 SLG trails only Hall of Famers Long Chamberlain and Sawyer Silk) is must-see television.

2040 Prediction
Armed with one of the league's best offenses and with a track-record of a no-fear attitude when it comes to making trades, expect general manager Justin Niles to cash in one or two of his prospect chips for pitching help. Just one ace could do wonders for the Hawks and bring them back to over-.500 baseball. The Heartland Division is generally wide-open this year, so a push for a Wild Card spot is not out of reach for Omaha. In the end, expect the Hawks to miss out of the playoffs by two or three games after a regular season record of 83-79.

[crobillard]

Love this preview. I've always liked what Justin is doing in Omaha. We've had a few discussions about it. For some reason he very rudely wont trade me Ordonez. I think if he is able to nail down an ace for his staff he could get around 90 wins, but the earlier the better. Every game counts.

[niles08]

Thanks for the excellent preview. You couldn't be more spot on. Pitching is and always has been my biggest issue. I tried to counter that this off-season by making left-handed batters less likely to hit home runs at Hawks field but well see what happens. I do agree I need to find an ace as I don't recall ever having one in a Hawks uniform. It is likely that a few of those prospects will indeed be traded during the season as I look to pick up a game-changing pitcher.

I also have Bret Powers not far off in the outfield which is going to create even more of a glut as I will likely move into a Starks, Ordonez, Powers outfield within the next season or so.