2039 Yellow Springs Nine Preview

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sjshaw
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2039 Yellow Springs Nine Preview

Post by sjshaw » Thu Jun 27, 2019 3:27 pm

This is my first season as a BBA GM. I lack a deep, been-here knowledge of BBA history; however, I have a long history with YS9's GM, RonCo. I'll spare the gory details, but RonCo is no stranger to shaking up OOTP leagues. If I didn't already know him as a master of dense dark fantasy novels, I'd swear that he was put on Earth to fuck him up some OOTP. He entered FOBL at the peak of its glory days as perhaps the most competitive, innovative OOTP league in history, and quickly made its owners "bend the knee," in the parlance of our time.

Let's quickly suss out how LOU has done before and after RonCo.

Before: Image. After: Image

Hmmm. Yeah, that looks like trademark RonCo to me. But... something seems amiss.

Image

Yes, that's correct. RonCo and I have the same number of BBA rings! (sorry Ron... stoking the embers of the soon-to-be red hot divisional rivalry between LOU and YS9)

RonCo seeks utter dominance, and he will not rest until that zero is expurgated from the "Champion" column. The question that this preview seeks to analyze, then, is whether 2039 is the year RonCo can rest.


2039 Roster

Starting Pitching

Any discussion of YS9's rotation begins and ends with SP Carlos Valle. The 2031 4th round pick dominated in 2038, his 7.1 WAR good for 3rd overall in BBA. Surprisingly for a guy with a 6 in MOV, Valle was 4th in HR/9 (0.82). Certainly, YS9's LHB HR-suppressed park contributed to this, but RonCo has to be wondering if this is the Valle he'll be getting in 2039, or whether a regression to his 2036 and 2037 HR rate will turn Valle back into a mere mortal. If an increase in HR rate is Valle's kryptonite, can the rest of the staff pick up the slack? The outlook is unclear.

SP Luis Colón started a pedestrian 26 games last season. SP José 'Dogface' Chávez started 22 and did so well that he's in the UMEBA this season. SP/RP Edgardo Llauro started 18 despite owning exactly 1.5 pitches. We know who these guys are.

It's the unknown that will determine the course of YS9's season. Can RonCo coax enough quality starter innings out of the quartet of part-time SP comprising: Ernesto Ramos, Hiroyasu Osaragi, Momcilo Djuretic, and Han-lee Kim? Or... does RonCo know what we know, and have another plan? To answer this question, we turn to the relievers.


Relief Pitching (or, hey, go throw 3 innings at the start of the game and we'll see you tomorrow)

When we examine YS9's bullpen, the hazy edges of RonCo's plans begin to come into focus. RP Tristan 'Dreamland' Alfama threw 162 effective innings, all in relief. RP Curt Phillips is a dominant arm out of the pen, leading BBA with 42 saves in 2038. RP Emílio Gutiérrez had a 4.06 FIP, a full run under his 5.09 ERA. RP Ángel Hernández pitched in AA last season, but the lefty is fully capable of eating valuable innings against LHB this season, as this Spring has demonstrated.

When you combine these guys with the 4-piece SP bucket above, you get enough arms to fill the approximately 1,500 innings needed in 2039. With deft management of the new opener/follower strategy, and getting lucky with OOTP being smart enough to fill the low-leverage portion of those 1,500 innings with whatever dross RonCo fills out his staff with, it could be just enough.


Hitting

The loss of LF Alfredo 'Savage' Salazar and his insane 162 wRC+ vs. RHP will... not be felt much. This is because 17-year-old LF Ricardo 'Moo' Mendoza will be called up as soon as the service time clock is favorable. In the interim, LF Andy McKinney will hold down LF. The temporary loss of CF Mauro Saucedo may be felt more keenly, as LOU cast-off CF Abdeljilill Sediki will have to contribute as a rookie.

YS9 will get the usual excellent platoon performances from RF José Machado, 1B Lucas McNeill, and C Aaron Stone, but the key to the YS9 offense may rest in the hands of another rookie... The Donger. Thum is key to balancing out the platoons, and RonCo will need him to provide a big stick and glove at SS.


Outlook

The author views this as a high-variance season for YS9. If their staff stays healthy and RonCo can coax the right pitchers into pitching the right innings, then they could match last season's run prevention. But an injury or two... Valle regressing... or a strategy blowing up in his face, and RonCo could be looking at the pitching wasteland of 2037. I see their offense giving them just enough, but a heavy reliance on rookies has driven less-stable GMs to madness.

Again... high variance. If the rookies hit, if the staff holds together, if injuries stay away (don't sleep on RonCo using PP to basically turn his trainer into "Bones" McCoy )... then YS9 will be in it all the way. But one unfortunate incident, and the whole Jenga tower comes crashing down.

Prediction: 90-62, just enough for another 1st place finish in a division that is becoming more competitive, just not quickly enough. I've played enough OOTP not to even try and predict the playoffs. Get there and flip the coin.
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Re: 2039 Yellow Springs Nine Preview

Post by RonCo » Thu Jun 27, 2019 3:40 pm

High variance ... classic me team. I guess. :)

Nice job, especially for a guy from Loserville.
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Re: 2039 Yellow Springs Nine Preview

Post by RonCo » Thu Jun 27, 2019 3:55 pm

Mendoza is coming along quite nicely, though. We'll see when we see him.
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Re: 2039 Yellow Springs Nine Preview

Post by sjshaw » Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:37 pm

not bad
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Re: 2039 Yellow Springs Nine Preview

Post by RonCo » Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:35 pm

It'll work
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